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Global markets witnessed some repricing, monitoring trade, macro and political developments. On trade front, US President pushed for a minimum of 15-20% on EU. This has again built-up hopes of further monetary easing by ECB. On macro front, both 1 and 5-10Yr inflation expectations (University of Michigan) remain well anchored. The housing starts data also picked up (4.6% MoM increase seen in Jul’25 against -9.8% in Jun’25). In Germany, PPI fell by -1.3% in Jun’25, YoY compared to -1.2% in May’25. In China, benchmark lending rates were kept on hold albeit hinting at further policy space to support growth. On political front, Japan’s ruling coalition suffered a setback in the upper house with likely impact on Yen. On domestic front, Ministry of External Affairs has said that India will not subscribe to sanctions imposed by EU on Russian oil supplies.
Global indices ended mixed. Stocks in US were marginally lower even as macro data remained mixed (consumer sentiment and home sales). Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rose, as China’s GDP and exports rose more than expected. Sensex ended lower, amidst losses in consumer durables and capital goods stocks. It is also trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.3% tracking a dip in US treasury yields, as Fed’s Waller spoke about a possible cut in Jul’25. EUR appreciated by 0.3%, while GBP ended flat. INR depreciated marginally amidst losses in domestic equities. It is trading weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.
US 10Y yield softened as inflation expectations remained well anchored. Even Japan’s 10Y yield moderated ahead of Upper House election results. Downside risks to yield remain as the ruling coalition suffered a setback. 10Y yield in UK and Germany inched up as uncertainty prevails regarding future course of monetary policy. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at 6.3% today.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 16 Jul and 15 Jul 2025
Oil prices softened albeit EU sanctions on Russian oil supplies.
Global markets broadly monitored the corporate earnings in a data light trading day. On trade front, White House Press Secretary stated that more trade deals may be forthcoming before the 1 Aug deadline, with reports suggesting EU, Malaysia and Philippines making progress on the same. Traders are also keeping a close eye on Yen movement and Japanese bonds as some risks persist over fiscal concerns surrounding results of Upper House elections. On monetary policy front, BoE is facing pressure in unwinding its Quantitative Easing (QE) portfolio due to weaker demand of long dated securities amidst volatile financial landscape. On domestic front, the index of eight core industries picked up to 1.3% in Q1FY26 with buoyant growth in sectors such as steel and cement.
Global indices closed broadly higher. Investors’ focus turned to earnings reports and trade negotiations. S&P 500 rose to a record high. Stocks in China and Hong Kong ended higher as PBOC kept rates on hold, with investors awaiting the outcome of the Politburo meet. Sensex rose led by banking and consumer durables stocks. It is also trading higher today, in line with Asian peers.
Note: Nikkei was closed as on 21 Jul 2025
Except INR, other global currencies gained. DXY slid by 0.6% awaiting more clarity on US tariff policies. JPY rose by 1%, tracking political developments. INR depreciated to a 1-month low amidst dollar demand from importers. It is however trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
10Y yield in Germany, US and UK broadly softened. For Germany, higher expectations of softer policy by the ECB in the wake of a delay in trade deal between US and EU, influenced its yield. For UK some frontloading happened ahead of the public sector borrowing data. US 10Y yield broadly showed the risk-off influence. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad lower and is trading stable.
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 16 Jul and 17 Jul 2025
Oil prices softened as demand concerns continued to weigh in.
Global markets got a breather monitoring optimistic developments on trade front. In its latest progress, Japan secured a trade deal with the US with tariff rate set at 15%, including for autos. It also agreed to provide a US$ 550bn fund to invest in the US. In a separate agreement, US and Philippines also managed to come up with a deal with tariff rate being set at 19%. US Treasury Secretary also hinted at tariff truce with China. Risk on sentiments came into play driving major Asian stocks higher in today’s session. The safe-haven gold is also trading lower today. On macro front, net public sector borrowing data of UK firmed up. Taiwan’s export orders showed momentum led by frontloading impact of tariff. ECB’s bank lending survey confirmed weaker demand conditions. On domestic front, financial results of major companies will hold cue on market’s trajectory.
Global markets ended mixed as investors’ awaited outcome of US trade negotiations. Stocks in the US edged up ahead of major earnings reports this week. Gains in construction and power stocks drove stocks in China and Hong Kong higher. Sensex ended marginally weaker. It is trading higher today, in line with Asian peers supported by announcement of US-Japan trade deal.
Except INR, other global currencies rose against the dollar. DXY fell for the third straight session ahead of the looming tariff deadline. INR continued to depreciate amidst dollar demand and weakness in domestic equities. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
10Y yield in UK softened albeit a rise in net public sector borrowing. US 10Y yield also moderated at a similar pace weighing state of the economy and recent trade related developments. In China, some momentum in its 10Y yield was witnessed ahead of the summit where some talks with EU might be possible. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad higher and is trading stable today
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 17 Jul and 18 Jul 2025
Oil prices dipped as hopes of a US-EU trade deal before the deadline faded.
Risk on sentiments continued to play on global market fundamentals with rally in equity indices and sell off in sovereign debt class. The safe-haven appeal of dollar and gold have also lost sheen amidst renewed optimism on US-Japan and USPhilippines trade deal. Reports also stated that EU is also close to signing off a deal with the US at 15% tariff rate. The deal between US and South Korea is also forthcoming at similar tariff rate with the latter pledging for higher investment in the US to trim auto tariff rate. Thus, optimism on trade front has largely capped market’s fear of volatility with VIX falling sharply in the day’s trading session. On domestic front, ADB has flagged higher tariff as downside risks to growth with FY26 GDP growth for India projected at 6.5%, from 6.7% earlier. All eyes are on the signing of UK-India FTA which is expected to double bilateral trade by CY30.
Global markets rallied supported by improved risk sentiments as US announced a trade deal with Japan. Reports also indicated that a deal with Europe might also be forthcoming. Nikkei rose sharply by 3.5%, led by gains in auto stocks. Sensex edged up by 0.7% supported by banking and auto stocks. It is however trading weaker today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Barring INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. EUR and JPY rose on optimism over trade deals. DXY continued to slide as US existing home sales dipped. INR depreciated further as US trade talks remained in a limbo. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Global yields inched up across the board tracking optimism on tariff front. UK’s 10Y yield has risen the most probably a lagged effect of rise in public sector net borrowing. Even Germany and US 10Y yield inched up as expectation build up over monetary policy to be in wait and watch mode amidst evolving global dynamics. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at 6.32% today.
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 18 Jul and 21 Jul 2025
Oil prices declined marginally despite a drop in US crude inventories.
Global macro indicators showed mixed performance. The flash manufacturing PMI readings remained weaker in US, Japan and Germany. For UK, it inched up a tad albeit below the 50-mark. Flash Services PMI on the other hand fared well. In the US, labour market indicators however showed momentum with jobless claims falling to 217k from est.: 226k, for the week ending Jul’19. This has pared down expectation of rate cut by Fed among market participants. On monetary policy front, ECB kept rates on hold and hinted at “wait and see” mode on the backdrop of inflation largely aligning to 2% goal and growth indicators remaining in line with expectations. Here also markets reduced bets of rate cut in Sep’25. On domestic front, PMI inched up to 59.2 from 58.4 in Jul’25 and services was a tad lower at 59.8 from 60.4. On liquidity management, RBI’s fine tuning through LAF continued.
Global indices ended mixed. US stocks ended mixed tracking trade developments and corporate earnings reports. Stocks in Asia closed mostly higher driven by trade optimism, with Nikkei registering the biggest increase. Sensex ended weaker as technology and real estate stocks fell. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Except INR, other global currencies closed weaker. DXY reversed some losses tracking an uptick in flash services PMI. EUR fell after ECB kept rates steady and hinted at a data dependent approach going forward. INR appreciated a tad. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with Asian peers.
Except UK, other global yields edged up as progress in US trade talks boosted sentiments. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps as ECB kept rates on hold for the first time in a year. In US, 10Y yield edge up by 2bps as services PMI hit a 7-month high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps to 6.33%. It is trading stable today. RBI is likely to continue its finetuning operations through VRR/VRRR auctions.
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 Jul and 22 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose as possibility of more trade deals improved demand prospects.
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