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Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected. However, as underlying macro indicators in the US remained benign, market is expecting a pivot from Fed on policy front. Elsewhere in the Eurozone, inflation hit a record new high for the 12th consecutive month, inching up to 10.7% (est.: 10.2%) in Oct’22 from 9.9% in Sep’22. Reserve Bank of Australia went for another rate hike of 25bps and hinted at more rate hikes in future. The central bank further expects inflation to peak around 8% later this year against its earlier expectation of 7.75%. It further lowered its growth forecast to 3% and 1.5% in CY23 and CY24 respectively. On domestic front, MPC meeting is scheduled but no rate call is expected.
Global stocks ended mixed. US stocks fell as investors await the upcoming Fed policy and jobs report. Stocks in China also edged lower as official PMIs showed further moderation in economic activity. On the other hand, Nikkei rose by 1.8% as Japan’s retail sales rose more than expected. Sensex edged up by 1.3% led by gains in auto and technology stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies fell against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.7% as investors brace for another 75bps increase in Fed policy rate. EUR fell by 0.8% as GDP growth moderated sharply in Q3CY22. CNY fell by 0.7% as both manufacturing and services PMI slumped in Oct’22. INR too depreciated by 0.4%. However it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except Japan (stable) and China (lower), global yields closed higher. US, UK and Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps each. Fed’s upcoming policy decision, higher than expected inflation print in the Eurozone, better retail sales print in Germany, all contributed to sell off. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps (7.45%) ahead of the off cycle MPC meet. It is trading lower at 7.43% today.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research; Note-mutual fund data pertains to 16 and 17 May 2022
Crude oil prices fell by 1% amidst fear of muted demand tracking China’s zero Covid policy.
Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision. While a 75bps rate hike is expected as per the CME Fed watch tool data, money market is not ruling out a slower pace of rate hike of 50bps as well. Former US treasury Secretary said that Fed should stay on course with regard to its rate hike plan in order to avoid any misguided signals. In the US, slew of macro data points pointed to some revival. Job openings rose more than expected, indicating buoyant labour market conditions. ISM manufacturing data also firmed up to 50.2 against expectation of 50. In UK as well, manufacturing data was better than estimated at 46.2 (est.: 45.8). Inflation still remained a concern. In South Korea, CPI print was at 5.7% in Oct’22 against 5.6% in Sep’22. On domestic front, markets remain steadfast eyeing the MPC meeting.
Barring US, other global indices ended higher ahead of Fed's rate decision. Investors are expected to scrutinize Fed Chair comments in order to gauge any signals for future rate hike. Hang Seng (5.2%) gained the most followed by Shanghai Comp (2.6%) amidst news report of China possibly overthrowing Covid-zero policy. Sensex ended in green led by gains in power and IT stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Except Euro, other global currencies ended higher. DXY ended flat as investors turned their focus towards Fed's rate decision with the likelihood of 75bps rate hike. Yen gained by 0.3% as BoJ minutes highlighted continuing with its ultra- loose monetary policy. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except Japan and China (higher), global yields closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps ahead of BoE policy decision where a 75bps rate hike is expected and then a slower pace of rate hike of 50bps in its Dec’22 meeting is anticipated. Both US and Germany’s 10Y yield inched up by 1bps each, eyeing Fed policy. India’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps (7.40%). It is trading at 7.41% today.
Crude oil prices fell by 0.2% to US$ 94.7/bbl, despite surprise drawdown in US inventory.
US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08. Fed Governor clearly flagged risks from premature pausing. Further, the policy statement added statement like ‘ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time’. This led US stocks close lower. Even US 10Y yield (+6bps) firmed up. The private payroll data of ADP also showed buoyant labour demand. In Germany, again strains on growth were visible in the exports data which fell by 0.5% on SA MoM basis (est.: +0.5% increase). Imports also fell by 2.3% (est.: -0.6% decline). In China, health official reiterated that Covid zero policy is likely to stay. The Caixin services PMI print came in lower than expected at 48.4 (est.: 49).
Except Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng, other global stocks ended lower. Investors monitored Fed Chair’s comments which were perceived as more hawkish than expected. US stocks led the decline followed by FTSE. Sensex too fell by 0.4% following global cues. Real estate and technology stocks fell the most. It is trading further lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Except JPY, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY ended marginally lower amidst mixed signals from the Fed about future rate hikes and terminal fund rates. GBP fell by 0.8% even as investors expect a 75bps rate hike by BoE today. INR fell by 0.1% as oil prices firmed up. However it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 6bps as Fed Governor remained fairly hawkish in its recent policy. UK’s 10Y yield fell by 7bps ahead of BoE’s policy decision where a 75bps rate hike is expected. India’s 10Y yield closed stable at 7.4%. It is trading higher at 7.44% today.
Crude oil prices rose by 1.6% following decline in US crude inventories.
Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated. This was on account of BoE’s declaration that UK might exhibit the deepest downturn; the longest recession since 1920. Even Fed Governor a day earlier flagged significant risks to soft landing. BoE’s inflation projection also remained fairly high at 11% in Q4CY22. Hence growth inflation trade off would continue to remain a cause of dilemma for central banks in the near term. In the US, 2Y and 10Y paper exhibited sharpest inversion since early 1980s when Fed Chair was Paul Volcker. It further signalled incipient risks of recession. In the US, markets are monitoring the payroll data where 195k additions in non-farm payroll is expected in Oct-22. In China, Covid cases rose at the sharpest pace since May’22, aggravating demand concerns.
Except FTSE, other global stocks ended lower. Fears of a global recession resurfaced as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy. BoE warned of a “very challenging” outlook and stated the economy may remain in a recession for the next 2 years. Hang Seng fell the most, followed by S$P 500. Sensex fell by 0.1% led by losses in power stocks. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian markets are trading higher.
Global currencies edged down. DXY rose by 1.4% amidst expectations of higher terminal Fed fund rates. GBP depreciated sharply by 2% as BoE painted a grim picture of the economic outlook. EUR too declined by 0.7%. INR too depreciated by 0.1%. However it is trading stronger today, in line with its Asian peers.
Except Japan (stable) and China (lower), global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most by 12bps followed by Germany (+10bps) and US (+5bps). Aggravated concerns of inflation, kept borrowing cost elevated despite underlying risks of recession. India’s 10Y yield rose by 8bps (7.48%) tracking BoE’s policy decision of 75bps rate hike. It is trading at 7.49% today.
Crude oil prices fell by 1.5% amidst concerns of muted demand.
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