Economic Weekly Wrap
28 July 2025 - 01 Aug 2025
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28 July 2025
After weeks of uncertainty, the US and EU secured a key trade deal which is likely to boost sentiments. As per the agreement, EU exports to the US will incur an across the board 15% tariff rate. The EU also agreed to purchase US$ 750bn worth US energy products and invest US$ 600bn in the US. Separately, US core capital goods orders declined by 0.7% in Jun’25 after increasing by 2% last month. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady this week, with focus on more announcement of more trade deals and US jobs report. In Germany, Ifo’s business climate index rose to a 1- year high at 88.6 in Jul’25 from 88.4 in Jun’25. Core inflation in Tokyo, moderated to 2.9% (3.1% in Jun’25), but remained above BoJ’s target. While the BoJ is expected keep rates on hold this week, it is likely to provide some indication of future rate hikes as a trade deal with the US has significantly improved the economic outlook.
Barring US, other global indices closed lower. US stocks got support from better earnings reports. Amongst other stocks, Hang Seng fell the most followed by Nikkei. Traders’ sentiments got impacted awaiting more clarity on US trade deals and broadly muted macro data. Sensex ended weaker, led by power stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,694 44,902 0.5 S & P 500 6,363 6,389 0.4 FTSE 9,138 9,120 (0.2) Nikkei 41,826 41,456 (0.9) Hang Seng 25,667 25,388 (1.1) Shanghai Comp 3,606 3,594 (0.3) Sensex 82,184 81,463 (0.9) Nifty 25,062 24,837 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended weaker. DXY rose by 0.3% ahead of tariff deadline and Fed meeting. Despite a strong retail sales report, GBP declined by 0.5%. JPY also depreciated ahead of BoJ meeting. INR depreciated marginally. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1749 1.1742 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3510 1.3438 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.01 147.69 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.41 86.52 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1547 7.1695 (0.2) DXY Index 97.38 97.65 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields traded thinly balancing risk sentiments at play. US 10Y yield fell a tad as durable goods orders showed weakness. Germany’s 10Y yield inched up tracking developments surrounding trade deal between EU and US. It would get further support after the announcement of EU-US trade deal. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, tracking auction results. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.40 4.39 (1) UK 4.62 4.64 1 Germany 2.70 2.72 2 Japan 1.61 1.61 0 China 1.74 1.74 0 India 6.33 6.35 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.35 5.35 0 Tbill-182 days 5.49 5.49 0 Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.54 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.69 5.71 2 India OIS-2M 5.44 5.45 1 India OIS-9M 5.47 5.50 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.28 4.30 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.6 2.9 0.3 Reverse Repo 2.0 0 (2.0) Repo* 0.5 0 (0.5) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (452.0) (386.5) 65.6 Debt (70.0) (155.3) (85.3) Equity (382.0) (231.2) 150.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,561.4 2,252.1 (309.4) Debt (2,222.4) (2,153.2) 69.2 Equity 4,783.8 4,405.2 (378.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 22 Jul and 23 Jul 2025
Oil prices dipped on demand concerns amid weak macro data in US and China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 69.2 68.4 (1.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,368.7 3,337.3 (0.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,827.1 9,715.8 (1.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,842.8 2,821.5 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,647.0 2,635.5 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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29 July 2025
Global markets traded cautiously as investors monitored developments surrounding US trade policies. Even as EU averted a steep 30% tariff on its exports, countries such as France and Germany stated that the 15% tariff under the deal is still likely to impact exports. US President also threatened that trading partners who do not negotiate a trade deal are likely to face a blanket tariff of 15-20%. At the same time, US and China continued talks to extend the trade truce by another 90 days, while working on a broader trade agreement. Focus is likely to remain on trade deals, despite key data releases from the US and central bank meetings in the US and Japan. In India, IIP growth stood at 1.5% in Jun’25. Separately, the Ministry of Finance has expressed confidence in India’s growth prospects supported by robust rainfall, low inflation, buoyant services sector activity and consumption demand.
Global indices closed mixed ahead of major macro releases and corporate earnings. Nikkei fell the most awaiting BoJ’s policy decision. Hang Seng picked up, led by financial stocks. Shanghai Comp also inched up monitoring trade talks between US and China. Sensex ended weaker, led by real estate stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading lower.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,902 44,838 (0.1) S & P 500 6,389 6,390 0 FTSE 9,120 9,081 (0.4) Nikkei 41,456 40,998 (1.1) Hang Seng 25,388 25,562 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,594 3,598 0.1 Sensex 81,463 80,891 (0.7) Nifty 24,837 24,681 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended weaker as the dollar strengthened. DXY rose by 1% after the announcement of US-EU trade deal. EUR dipped by 1.3% as investors assessed the finer blueprints of the deal and its impact on growth. INR closed at a 1-month low. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1742 1.1589 (1.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3438 1.3356 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.69 148.53 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.52 86.66 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1695 7.1788 (0.1) DXY Index 97.65 98.63 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
10Y yields in US and UK firmed up. For US, risk-on sentiment dominated ahead of Fed policy. In UK, rise in BRC shop price data supported its yield. Japan’s 10Y yield softened, monitoring buoyant demand for its 2-year paper. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps tracking movement of system liquidity. It is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.39 4.41 2 UK 4.64 4.65 1 Germany 2.72 2.69 (3) Japan 1.61 1.57 (3) China 1.74 1.72 (2) India 6.35 6.37 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.35 5.37 2 Tbill-182 days 5.49 5.49 0 Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.52 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.69 5.71 2 India OIS-2M 5.45 5.44 (1) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.50 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.36 6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 2.2 (0.7) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-07-2025 25-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (386.5) (159.8) 226.7 Debt (155.3) 4.3 159.6 Equity (231.2) (164.1) 67.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,252.1 (3,675.1) (5,927.1) Debt (2,153.2) (5,177.1) (3,023.9) Equity 4,405.2 1,502.0 (2,903.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 Jul and 25 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose as progress in US trade negotiations boosted demand outlook.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.4 70.0 2.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,337.3 3,314.6 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,715.8 9,738.7 0.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,821.5 2,815.6 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,635.5 2,631.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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30 July 2025
IMF has revised its global growth forecast upwards to 3% for 2025 (+20bps) and 3.1% for 2026 (+10bps). A dip US effective rate from 24.4% to 17.3% and frontloading ahead of US tariffs has helped the growth outlook. However, it cautioned that tariff related uncertainty, geo-political tensions and elevated fiscal deficits remain major risks to growth. Growth projections for almost all major economies were revised higher, with China (+80bps) noting the maximum increase. India’s growth projection was also revised up to 6.4% in FY26 (+20bps) and FY27 (+10bps), citing a stable external environment. Separately, US-China trade talks continued seeking an extension of the trade truce. US President also hinted at a 20- 25% tariff rate on Indian exports, while expressing satisfaction with the progress in trade negotiations with India.
Global indices ended mixed as investors monitored trade developments, corporate earnings and macro data. Stocks in US declined as JOLTS data signalled some stress in labour market. Nikkei dipped as investors await guidance from BoJ. Sensex edged higher, led by gains in real estate and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian peers.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,838 44,633 (0.5) S & P 500 6,390 6,371 (0.3) FTSE 9,081 9,136 0.6 Nikkei 40,998 40,675 (0.8) Hang Seng 25,562 25,524 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,598 3,610 0.3 Sensex 80,891 81,338 0.6 Nifty 24,681 24,821 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose, supported by an uptick in US consumer confidence index (Conference Board). EUR dipped further. INR depreciated due to higher oil prices and muted FPI flows. However, it is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mostly higher.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1589 1.1547 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3356 1.3351 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.53 148.46 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.66 86.82 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1788 7.1770 0 DXY Index 98.63 98.89 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields ended mixed. US 10Y yield dipped sharply by 9bps tracking a weakness in labour market data (JOLTS job openings), with focus shifting to Fed’s commentary. In China, 10Y yield rose by 3bps as trade talks with the US were cited to be “constructive”. India’s 10Y yield declined by 1bps to 6.36%. It is trading steady today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.41 4.32 (9) UK 4.65 4.63 (1) Germany 2.69 2.71 2 Japan 1.57 1.58 1 China 1.72 1.75 3 India 6.37 6.36 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.35 5.37 2 Tbill-182 days 5.49 5.49 0 Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.52 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.69 5.71 2 India OIS-2M 5.45 5.44 (1) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.50 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.36 6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.2 2.7 0.5 Reverse Repo 0 1.3 1.3 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-07-2025 28-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (159.8) (778.8) (619.0) Debt 4.3 (89.8) (94.0) Equity (164.1) (689.0) (525.0) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,252.1 (3,675.1) (5,927.1) Debt (2,153.2) (5,177.1) (3,023.9) Equity 4,405.2 1,502.0 (2,903.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 23 Jul and 24 Jul 2025
Oil prices surged as US President’s ultimatum to Russia led to supply concerns.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 70.0 72.5 3.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,314.6 3,326.6 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,738.7 9,746.3 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,815.6 2,801.1 (0.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,631.5 2,605.5 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 July 2025
Ahead of the 1 Aug deadline, US President announced a barrage of tariff orders. India and Brazil’s exports faced a tariff of 25% and 50% respectively, while the previously announced 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring will also take effect from 1 Aug. Further, the de minimis exemption on small value imports was withdrawn. Additionally, a trade deal with Korea was announced with the tariff rate being set at 15%. Separately, central banks in both the US and Japan kept policy rates on hold. Fed Chair continued to advocate for a cautious approach to future rate cuts, even as 2 MPC members voted for a cut. On macro front, US GDP growth rebounded to 3% in Q2 (est. 2.4%) after a contraction of 0.3% in Q1, led largely by a sharp decline in imports. In China, the official manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.3 in Jul’25 from 49.7 in Jun’25, led by a continued weakness in new export orders
Global indices closed mixed monitoring trade related developments and slew of macro releases. US stocks moderated as Fed Chair cautioned about tariff risks to rate outlook. Shanghai Comp inched up, supported by positive sentiments around US-China trade talks. Sensex edged up, but is trading lower today on account of US tariff threats. Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,633 44,461 (0.4) S & P 500 6,371 6,363 (0.1) FTSE 9,136 9,137 0 Nikkei 40,675 40,655 0 Hang Seng 25,524 25,177 (1.4) Shanghai Comp 3,610 3,616 0.2 Sensex 81,338 81,482 0.2 Nifty 24,821 24,855 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended weaker. DXY climbed for the 4th straight session as investors pared back expectations of Fed rate cuts. EUR depreciated tracking a weakness in Germany’s GDP growth. INR depreciated sharply and is trading at a record low today due to US tariff. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1547 1.1405 (1.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3351 1.3237 (0.9) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.46 149.51 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.82 87.43 (0.7) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1770 7.1972 (0.3) DXY Index 98.89 99.82 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield firmed up by 5bps as traders pared down expectations of future rate cuts by the Fed. This is on account of inflationary risks from higher tariff rates flagged by the Fed Chair. 10Y yields of other economies broadly softened due to risk-off sentiment. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad and is trading flat today. Some upward bias exists due to the impact of higher tariff imposed by the US.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.32 4.37 5 UK 4.63 4.60 (3) Germany 2.71 2.71 0 Japan 1.58 1.56 (2) China 1.75 1.73 (2) India 6.36 6.37 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.37 5.40 3 Tbill-182 days 5.48 5.52 4 Tbill-364 days 5.51 5.56 5 G-Sec 2Y 5.71 5.71 0 India OIS-2M 5.44 5.43 (1) India OIS-9M 5.49 5.47 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.36 4.36 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.7 2.5 (0.2) Reverse Repo 1.3 1.7 0.4 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-07-2025 29-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (778.8) (372.7) 406.1 Debt (89.8) 52.5 142.2 Equity (689.0) (425.2) 263.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,252.1 (3,675.1) (5,927.1) Debt (2,153.2) (5,177.1) (3,023.9) Equity 4,405.2 1,502.0 (2,903.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 23 Jul and 24 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose amid looming tariff threats over purchase of Russian oil.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-07-2025 30-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 72.5 73.2 1.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,326.6 3,275.2 (1.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,746.3 9,651.7 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,801.1 2,782.8 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,605.5 2,601.0 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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01 August 2025
Global macro indicators showed mixed performance. The flash manufacturing PMI readings remained weaker in US, Japan and Germany. For UK, it inched up a tad albeit below the 50-mark. Flash Services PMI on the other hand fared well. In the US, labour market indicators however showed momentum with jobless claims falling to 217k from est.: 226k, for the week ending Jul’19. This has pared down expectation of rate cut by Fed among market participants. On monetary policy front, ECB kept rates on hold and hinted at “wait and see” mode on the backdrop of inflation largely aligning to 2% goal and growth indicators remaining in line with expectations. Here also markets reduced bets of rate cut in Sep’25. On domestic front, PMI inched up to 59.2 from 58.4 in Jul’25 and services was a tad lower at 59.8 from 60.4. On liquidity management, RBI’s fine tuning through LAF continued.
Global indices ended mixed. US stocks ended mixed tracking trade developments and corporate earnings reports. Stocks in Asia closed mostly higher driven by trade optimism, with Nikkei registering the biggest increase. Sensex ended weaker as technology and real estate stocks fell. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,010 44,694 (0.7) S & P 500 6,359 6,363 0.1 FTSE 9,061 9,138 0.8 Nikkei 41,171 41,826 1.6 Hang Seng 25,538 25,667 0.5 Shanghai Comp 3,582 3,606 0.7 Sensex 82,727 82,184 (0.7) Nifty 25,220 25,062 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies closed weaker. DXY reversed some losses tracking an uptick in flash services PMI. EUR fell after ECB kept rates steady and hinted at a data dependent approach going forward. INR appreciated a tad. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1771 1.1749 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3582 1.3510 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.51 147.01 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.42 86.41 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1543 7.1547 0 DXY Index 97.21 97.38 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except UK, other global yields edged up as progress in US trade talks boosted sentiments. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps as ECB kept rates on hold for the first time in a year. In US, 10Y yield edge up by 2bps as services PMI hit a 7-month high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps to 6.33%. It is trading stable today. RBI is likely to continue its finetuning operations through VRR/VRRR auctions.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.38 4.40 2 UK 4.64 4.62 (1) Germany 2.64 2.70 6 Japan 1.59 1.61 2 China 1.71 1.74 3 India 6.31 6.33 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.38 5.35 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.52 5.49 (3) Tbill-364 days 5.56 5.53 (3) G-Sec 2Y 5.68 5.69 1 India OIS-2M 5.44 5.44 0 India OIS-9M 5.46 5.47 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.28 4.28 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.2 2.6 0.4 Reverse Repo 2.0 2.0 0 Repo* 0 0.5 0.5 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
22-07-2025 23-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 555.3 (452.0) (1,007.3) Debt 19.9 (70.0) (89.9) Equity 535.4 (382.0) (917.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,869.4 2,561.4 (308.0) Debt (788.6) (2,222.4) (1,433.8) Equity 3,658.0 4,783.8 1,125.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 Jul and 22 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose as possibility of more trade deals improved demand prospects.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-07-2025 24-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.5 69.2 1.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,387.3 3,368.7 (0.5) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,878.1 9,827.1 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,859.2 2,842.8 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,651.0 2,647.0 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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