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US President Donald Trump announced additional trade barriers by imposing 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico. While this is lower than 35% tariff announced for Canadian goods, it is still significant as both EU and Mexico are also amongst US’ largest trading partners. These rates are over and above the sectoral tariffs already announced on items like copper, steel, aluminium, and automobiles. Separately, in China, exporters benefitted from temporary respite in trade restrictions between US and China, and exports rose by 5.8% (est.: 5%) in Jun’25, from 4.8% in May’25. Imports too increased for the 1st time in CY25, by 1.1% (est.: 0.3%), following (-) 3.4% decline in May’25. In H1CY25, China’s exports were up by 5.9%, but imports fell by (-) 3.9%, signalling sluggish domestic demand. Domestically, markets await CPI and WPI data today.
Barring Hang Seng (higher) and Shanghai Comp (flat), other global indices closed mixed. The uncertainty on global tariffs kept investors on the edge. US indices ended lower ahead of corporate earnings and inflation data. Sensex ended in red. It was dragged down by losses in IT and auto stocks. It is trading lower today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY strengthened, owing to diminished hopes of further rate cuts by the Fed. JPY softened with cues of possible delays in rate hike. INR depreciated as oil prices inched up. It is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except India, other global 10Y yield inched up. US 10Y yield rose the most (6bps), followed by the UK (3bps). Intensification of tariff war by the US has revived inflationary concerns. In the UK, weak demand impacted longer-end yield. India’s 10Y yield closed lower, despite rise in oil prices. It is trading flat today, ahead of CPI data release, due later in the day.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 08 Jul and 09 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose, following IEA’s remarks on tight global supplies.
Slew of macro data for China indicates pressure on growth remains amidst trade tensions. China’s Q2CY25 GDP rose by 5.2% (est.: 5.1%), easing from 5.4% in Q1. More high frequency data shows while industrial production (6.8% in Jun’25 versus 5.8% in May’25) benefitted from temporary truce with the US, domestic consumption remains weak. Retail sales rose by 4.8% (est.: 5.4%), versus 6.4% rise in May’25. FAI growth, proxy for investments, slowed to 2.8% in H1CY25 (est.: 3.6%), from 3.7% between Jan and May’25. Separately, in Japan, industrial output fell by (-) 2.4% in May’25—a first in CY25, following 0.5% increase in Apr’25. Weak economic growth, along with possibility of ruling party losing majority in the Upper House, is keeping investors wary. Domestically, CPI eased to 78-month low of 2.1% in Jun’25, helped by food inflation. WPI entered deflation, as it fell by (-) 0.1% in Jun’25.
Global markets closed mixed. US indices inched up with gains in communication services sector. Investors await key CPI print and earnings season which will kick in from today. Amongst other indices, FTSE was the biggest gainer. Sensex settled lower, with losses noted in IT stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Except CNY (flat), other global currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.2% amidst tariff uncertainty, given the threat of 30% tariff hike on Mexico and EU. INR weakened, despite fall in oil prices. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global 10Y yield bond yields closed mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield rose sharply by 6bps (near high of Oct’08), as investors brace for upper house elections this weekend. Noise of higher fiscal spending also impacted yields. In the US, ongoing tariff war is keeping market participants on edge. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. However, it is trading lower at 6.31%, tracking muted CPI print.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research Note: Mutual Fund data as of 09 Jul and 10 Jul 2025
Oil prices declined, as global growth fears re-emerge, amidst ongoing tariff war.
US CPI rose by 2.7% (est.: 2.6%) in Jun’25—highest in 5 months, up from 2.4% in May’25. On MoM basis as well CPI rose by 0.3%, up from 0.1% last month. Energy prices rebounded. Impact of tariffs was visible in higher price of apparels, household furnishing, and food outside home. Up until now US CPI was on a downward trajectory, however following the implementation of tariffs, upward pressure on CPI resurfaced, keeping Fed rate cuts also on hold. Separately in Germany, ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7 points in Jul’25 from 47.5 in Jun’25. This was driven by optimism due to tax cuts, spending boost and lowering of rates by the ECB. Domestically, India’s export growth remained flat in Jun’25, due to lower oil prices, while imports fell by (-) 3.7%. Trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.8bn in Jun’25.
Global markets closed mixed. US indices ended lower as investors’ monitored CPI data which inched up, signalling early impact of tariff. Hang Seng advanced the most amidst easing trade tensions between US and China. Sensex rebounded with gains in auto and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Except INR, other global currencies closed lower. DXY climbed up (nearing 3- week high) as hotter than expected CPI print has undercut the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Yen remained under pressure amidst election uncertainty. INR appreciated supported by lower oil prices. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global 10Y yield bond yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose the most by 5bps, tracking rise in US CPI, which reflects some impact of tariffs. UK’s 10Y yield also rose by 3bps amidst ongoing fiscal concerns, and awaiting CPI print due today. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, helped by lower oil prices. It is trading flat today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 Jul and 11 Jul 2025
Oil prices fell, driven by demand fears (lower chances of Fed rate cuts).
US PPI growth remained flat (0%) in Jun’25, down from 0.3% increase in May’25. This was owing to dip in prices of services (-0.1% versus 0.4%), while goods inflation rose (0.3% versus 0.1%). Within services, transportation and warehousing led the drag, while in case of goods, both energy and food prices jumped. On the other hand, surprising positively, industrial production in Jun’25 rose by 0.3% (est.: 0.1%), following (-) 0.2% decline in May’25. However, Fed’s beige book signals that risks to inflation still persist, as pass through of tariffs is not yet complete. Fed believes that the outlook for the economy is “neutral to slightly pessimistic”. Separately in the UK, inflation in Jun’25 (3.6%; 3.4% in May’25) was hotter than expected (3.4%). This was on account smaller decline in motor fuel prices and rise in food inflation. As a result, pressure on BoE to keep rates on hold has resurfaced before its Aug’25 meeting.
Global markets closed mixed. US indices advanced as investors’ continued to track both the CPI and PPI print along with better than expected earnings reports from banking sector. Hang Seng ended lower amidst repeated concerns around tariffs. Sensex inched up with gains in IT and real estate stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian stocks.
Except INR, other global currencies closed higher. DXY retreated after climbing to a 3-week high, with Fed Beige book signalling caution regarding growth. GBP gained by 0.3% tracking CPI report. INR fell, despite lower oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except UK (higher), other global 10Y yield bond yields closed lower/flat. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps, tracking steady PPI print, and remarks in Fed’s beige book singling that the outlook for the economy is “neutral to slightly pessimistic”. UK’s bond yield reacted to surprise rise inflation. India’s 10Y yield was stable, tracking global cues. It is trading at unchanged levels (6.31%) even today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda ResearchNote: Mutual Fund data as of 11 Jul and 14 Jul 2025
Oil prices declined further, amidst concerns of weak demand and rising supply.
Retail sales in the US rose by 0.6% (MoM) versus est.: 0.1% and (-) 0.9% decline in May’25. A stronger rebound was on account higher auto sales. Increase was also visible in case of clothing and health & personal care items. Non-essential items like electronics & appliances and furniture fell. Similar resilience is also reflected in the labour market as initial jobless claims for the week ending 12 Jul’25 fell by 7k to 221k (est.: 234k) reaching its lowest level since mid-Apr’25. In contrast, in the UK, unemployment rate inched up in May’25 (3-month basis) to 4.7% from 4.6% in Apr’25. Wage growth slowed to 5% in May’25 (3-month basis) from 5.3% in Apr’25. This has increased the chances of BoE cutting rates in Aug’25. Separately in Japan, helped by lower rice prices, headline inflation eased to 3.3% in Jun’25 (3.5% in May’25). However, core inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.3% in May’25.
Barring Hang Seng and Sensex, other global indices closed higher. S&P 500 ended at a fresh record high supported by strong economic data (retail sales, jobless claims). Airlines and IT stocks advanced the most. Nikkei was the biggest gainer. On the other hand, Sensex closed lower with losses in IT stocks. It is trading lower today while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Except GBP and CNY (flat), other global currencies closed lower. DXY rebounded after better-than-expected macro data. JPY weakened amidst election uncertainty. INR depreciated as oil prices inched up. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Yield in the US remained flat, impact from positive macro data (retail sales, jobless claims) was offset by concerns around Fed Chair Powell’s term. UK’s bond yield continued to inch up, despite weak labour market data. India’s 10Y fell by 1bps, tracking global cues. It is trading at unchanged levels (6.30%) even today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14 Jul and 15 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose, due to easing demand concerns, tracking US macro data.
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