Economic Weekly Wrap
07 July 2025 - 11 Jul 2025
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07 July 2025
Investors’ focus this week is likely to remain on tariff news from the US. The 90-day pause on President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs is set to expire on 9 Jul 2025. Over the weekend, US officials stated that announcements of more trade deals are likely before the deadline. However, the US President also stated higher tariff rates (up to 70%) for countries who have failed to negotiate, will take effect from 1 Aug 2025. So far, the US has struck a trade deal with the UK and Vietnam and a tentative agreement with China. India is supposedly close to a trade deal, but it remains to be seen if an official announcement could be made before the end of the deadline. Volatility can be expected to remain high tracking these developments, with the Indian market too awaiting more clarity on the trade deal.
Global stocks ended mixed. Hang Seng declined on US plans to curb AI chip shipments. Shanghai Comp got support from recent upbeat macro reading (PMI print). Nikkei firmed up, despite a stronger yen and uncertainty over trade deal with the US. Sensex inched up, led by oil and gas stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,484 44,829 0.8 S & P 500 6,227 6,279 0.8 FTSE 8,823 8,823 0 Nikkei 39,786 39,811 0.1 Hang Seng 24,070 23,916 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,461 3,472 0.3 Sensex 83,239 83,433 0.2 Nifty 25,405 25,461 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Except INR, other global currencies closed broadly higher. DXY was rangebound due to thin trading. JPY appreciated as Japan’s household spending staged a strong rebound. Despite weak macro data, EUR gained. INR depreciated marginally. It is trading further weaker today, tracking other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1757 1.1778 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3655 1.3650 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.93 144.47 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.32 85.40 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1706 7.1656 0.1 DXY Index 97.18 97.18 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Global 10Y yields traded thinly. Germany’s 10Y yield softened a tad as ECB official hinted that inflation might undershoot its target. US markets were closed. However, it’s 10Y yield is likely to firm up on fiscal concerns. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad and is trading further higher at 6.34% today. VRRR auction results showed buoyancy, indicative of surplus liquidity.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.28 4.35 7 UK 4.54 4.55 1 Germany 2.62 2.61 (1) Japan 1.44 1.44 (1) China 1.64 1.65 0 India 6.29 6.30 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.33 5.30 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.45 5.45 0 Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.53 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.72 5.71 (1) India OIS-2M 5.43 5.39 (4) India OIS-9M 5.49 5.48 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.44 4.40 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 4.0 4.2 0.2 Reverse Repo 0.8 0 (0.8) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research │ *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
02-07-2025 03-07-2025 Change (US$ mn / Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (83.6) (256.4) (172.9) Debt 3.6 48.6 45.0 Equity (87.2) (305.1) (217.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (389.2) 87.9 477.0 Debt (165.3) (2,164.8) (1,999.6) Equity (223.9) 2,252.7 2,476.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 27 Jun and 30 Jun 2025
Oil prices edged lower amidst anticipation of higher OPEC+ output.
Fig 7 – Commodities
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.8 68.3 (0.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3326.1 3337.2 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 10042.1 9959.9 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2728.5 2702.4 (1.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2605.0 2590.0 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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08 July 2025
US President extended the tariff deadline to 1 Aug 2025, while also stating that the new deadline was “not 100% firm”. This provided a brief reprieve to investor sentiments. At the same time, the US President raised tariffs on key trading partners Korea and Japan to 25%. Both the countries have stated that they would step up efforts to expedite trade negotiations with the US. A few other countries including Bangladesh, Thailand etc. were also notified of higher tariff rates applicable from 1 Aug 2025. The tariff rates are broadly at similar levels as those announced on 2 Apr 2025. The US administration is also expected to notify other trading partners of the new tariff rates in the coming days, while also stating that it remains open for consultations. Incidentally, EU and India were kept out of the fresh round of tariff announcements, as trade negotiations are set to be at advanced stages. Volatility is likely to remain high tracking US tariff news.
Global stocks ended lower. US President’s imposition of higher tariff on Japan, South Korea and South Africa soured equity market sentiments. US Stocks fell the most. Sensex closed flat as gains in oil and gas stocks were offset by decline in tech stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,829 44,406 (0.9) S & P 500 6,279 6,230 (0.8) FTSE 8,823 8,807 (0.2) Nikkei 39,811 39,588 (0.6) Hang Seng 23,916 23,888 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,472 3,473 0 Sensex 83,433 83,443 0 Nifty 25,461 25,461 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Global currencies ended weaker as the dollar strengthened. DXY rose by 0.3% on tariff jitters. JPY depreciated the most by 1.1% as US President upped his tariff antics. INR also depreciated by 0.5% tracking global cues. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1778 1.1709 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3650 1.3602 (0.4) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.47 146.05 (1.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.40 85.86 (0.5) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1656 7.1762 (0.1) DXY Index 97.18 97.48 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Global 10Y yields closed higher partly relieved by extension of tariff deadline to 1 Aug. Germany’s 10Y yield inched up the most supported by better industrial production print. Elsewhere, yields saw the impact of risk alignment. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. The benchmark security is trading at 6.29% today. Higher surplus liquidity may lead to more VRRR announcements by RBI this week.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.35 4.38 3 UK 4.55 4.59 3 Germany 2.61 2.64 4 Japan 1.44 1.46 3 China 1.65 1.64 0 India 6.30 6.29 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.30 5.26 (4) Tbill-182 days 5.45 5.44 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.52 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.71 5.69 (1) India OIS-2M 5.39 5.39 0 India OIS-9M 5.48 5.49 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.40 4.35 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Markets in the US were closed on 04 Jul 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 4.2 3.4 (0.8) Reverse Repo 0 1.1 1.1 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research │
*Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-07-2025 04-07-2025 Change (US$ mn / Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (256.4) 50.5 306.9 Debt 48.6 (30.6) (79.2) Equity (305.1) 81.0 386.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (3,052.3) 4,863.9 7,916.2 Debt (3,281.8) 3,841.5 7,123.2 Equity 229.5 1,022.4 792.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 Jun and 3 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose even as OPEC+ announced higher production in Aug’25.
Fig 7 – Commodities
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.3 69.6 1.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,337.2 3,336.5 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,959.9 9,909.3 (0.5) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,702.4 2,662.5 (1.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,590.0 2,573.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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09 July 2025
Tariff concerns were reignited as US President threatened to impose 50% tariff on copper imports, along with introducing higher tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. A 200% tariff was proposed on pharma imports, although it was stated that this could be pushed back by a year. The US President also indicated that the US was close to reaching a trade deal with the Eurozone as well as China. At the same time, the President reiterated his threat of imposing 10% tariff on BRICS countries, including India. In separate news, Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady, in sharp contrast to market expectations of a 25bps rate cut. The split decision (6-3) was based on uncertainty over the inflation outlook due to global developments. In India, RBI announced a 2-day VRRR auction worth Rs. 1lakh crores as liquidity continues to remain in surplus.
An amalgamation of sentiments is coming into play while assessing market dynamics. Asian stocks were broadly comforted from the extension of tariff deadline till 1 Aug 2025. US stocks were however impacted by anticipation of elevated tariff rates on copper and pharma. Sensex closed higher, led by real estate stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,406 44,241 (0.4) S & P 500 6,230 6,226 (0.1) FTSE 8,807 8,854 0.5 Nikkei 39,588 39,689 0.3 Hang Seng 23,888 24,148 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,473 3,497 0.7 Sensex 83,443 83,713 0.3 Nifty 25,461 25,523 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY closed unchanged as investors sought more clarity on US tariff policies. JPY fell further as US announced 25% tariffs on Japan. INR appreciated by 0.2% on anticipation of favourable US trade deal. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1709 1.1725 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3602 1.3592 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.05 146.58 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.86 85.70 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1762 7.1785 0 DXY Index 97.48 97.52 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed higher as fear of elevated tariff stoked inflationary concerns, especially due to threats of commodity specific tariffs. UK‘s 10Y yield rose the most, followed by Japan and Germany. A key ECB official also hinted at a wait and watch approach based on incoming data. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad higher. The benchmark security is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.38 4.40 2 UK 4.59 4.63 5 Germany 2.64 2.69 4 Japan 1.46 1.50 4 China 1.64 1.65 0 India 6.29 6.31 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.26 5.28 2 Tbill-182 days 5.44 5.40 (4) Tbill-364 days 5.52 5.54 2 G-Sec 2Y 5.72 5.69 (3) India OIS-2M 5.39 5.39 0 India OIS-9M 5.49 5.48 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.35 4.33 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.4 3.1 (0.3) Reverse Repo 1.1 1.0 (0.1) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research │
*Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
04-07-2025 07-07-2025 Change (US$ mn / Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 50.5 183.7 133.2 Debt (30.6) (139.2) (108.7) Equity 81.0 322.9 241.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 4,863.9 2,860.8 (2,003.0) Debt 3,841.5 3,286.8 (554.6) Equity 1,022.4 (426.0) (1,448.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 03 Jul and 04 Jul 2025
Oil prices rose amid escalated geopolitical tensions on renewed Houthi attacks.
Fig 7 – Commodities
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 69.6 70.2 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,336.5 3,301.9 (1.0) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,909.3 9,841.8 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,662.5 2,710.6 1.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,573.5 2,586.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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10 July 2025
US tariff policies continued to dominate global market headlines as US President imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports. Additionally, a 50% tariff was also applied on imports from Brazil. The US administration also issued tariff letters to seven smaller trading partners including Sri Lanka, Philippines and Iraq with tariff rates ranging between 20-30%. These tariffs are set to take effect from 1 Aug. Investors have so far downplayed the impact of the latest tariff measures, even though copper prices in the US soared to a record high after the announcement. Separately, minutes of the Fed meeting indicated that rate cuts are likely towards the end of the year, as members sought more clarity on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Bank of Korea kept its interest rate steady and maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance while warning of significant economic uncertainty due to US tariffs.
Global stocks ended mixed amidst tariff jitters. Asian stocks were impacted following US President’s announcement of commodity-specific and country specific tariff rates. US markets were supported by gains in technology stocks. Sensex moderated, dragged down by real estate, oil and gas and metal stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,241 44,458 0.5 S & P 500 6,226 6,263 0.6 FTSE 8,854 8,867 0.1 Nikkei 39,689 39,821 0.3 Hang Seng 24,148 23,892 (1.1) Shanghai Comp 3,497 3,493 (0.1) Sensex 83,713 83,536 (0.2) Nifty 25,523 25,476 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies traded in narrow ranges as investors assessed the implications of fresh US tariffs. JPY strengthened by 0.2%. INR was rangebound as traders await more clarity on India-US trade deal. It is trading at similar levels today, while other Asian currencies are trading stronger.
Fig 2 – Currencies
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1725 1.1720 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3592 1.3586 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.58 146.33 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.70 85.68 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1785 7.1807 0 DXY Index 97.52 97.56 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield softened the most as risk-off sentiment raised demand for sovereign asset class. This was despite the fact that the Fed minutes hinted at inflationary concerns. 10Y yield in UK and Germany also softened. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad. The 2-day VRRR saw a favourable cut off yield. More such announcements will be on the cards. 10Y yield is trading flat today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.40 4.33 (7) UK 4.63 4.61 (2) Germany 2.69 2.67 (1) Japan 1.50 1.51 1 China 1.65 1.65 0 India 6.31 6.31 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.28 5.37 9 Tbill-182 days 5.40 5.52 12 Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.57 3 G-Sec 2Y 5.69 5.70 1 India OIS-2M 5.39 5.42 4 India OIS-9M 5.48 5.49 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.33 4.34 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.1 3.3 (0.2) Reverse Repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
07-07-2025 08-07-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 183.7 91.5 (92.2) Debt (139.2) 58.3 197.6 Equity 322.9 33.2 (289.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 4,863.9 2,860.8 (2,003.0) Debt 3,841.5 3,286.8 (554.6) Equity 1,022.4 (426.0) (1,448.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 03 Jul and 04 Jul 2025
Oil prices inched a tad amidst expectation of lower US output as per EIA data
Fig 7 – Commodities
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 70.2 70.2 0.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,301.9 3,313.7 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,841.8 9,652.9 (1.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,710.6 2,744.5 1.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,586.0 2,596.5 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 July 2025
Trade tensions were once again reignited as the US President announced 35% tariff on Canada, with a few exceptions. This was higher than the 25% tariff which was announced earlier. The President also threatened to increase the tariff rate further, if Canada choses to retaliate. Alongside, it was also proposed to impose blanket tariffs on almost all trading partners to be applicable from 1 Aug 2025. The proposed tariff is likely to range between 15-20%. Separately, US jobless claims for the week ended 5 July 2025 fell to 227,000 (est. 235,000), providing evidence of a strong labour market. Inflation in Germany dipped to 2% in Jun’25 from 2.1% in May’25, led by lower energy and food prices. In India, RBI announced a 7-day VRRR auction of Rs. 2.5 lakh crores as liquidity continues to remain in surplus.
Except Nikkei, other global stocks ended higher. Traders are gradually absorbing tariff related woes and awaiting more clarity before 1 Aug deadline. FTSE rose the most. Stocks in Asia were supported by dovish comments from some Fed officials. Sensex moderated, dragged down by technology stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,458 44,651 0.4 S & P 500 6,263 6,280 0.3 FTSE 8,867 8,976 1.2 Nikkei 39,821 39,646 (0.4) Hang Seng 23,892 24,028 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,493 3,510 0.5 Sensex 83,536 83,190 (0.4) Nifty 25,476 25,355 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies continued to trade range bound as focus remained on US tariff policies. DXY rose marginally by 0.1% as US jobless claims declined. EUR depreciated the most by 0.2%, on tariff concerns. INR ended flat. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1720 1.1701 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3586 1.3579 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.33 146.26 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.68 85.65 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1807 7.1782 0 DXY Index 97.56 97.65 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield inched up as jobless claims softened. Germany’s 10Y yield also rose, despite a moderation in CPI. UK’s 10Y yield declined as house price data showed some loss in momentum in economic activity. India’s 10Y yield closed flat. RBI announced a higher quantum of VRRR as liquidity remains above 1% NDTL surplus level. 10Y yield is trading at 6.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change, bps US 4.33 4.35 2 UK 4.61 4.60 (2) Germany 2.67 2.71 3 Japan 1.51 1.50 (1) China 1.65 1.66 1 India 6.31 6.32 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.37 5.36 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.52 5.48 (4) Tbill-364 days 5.57 5.53 (4) G-Sec 2Y 5.69 5.70 1 India OIS-2M 5.42 5.42 0 India OIS-9M 5.49 5.49 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.34 4.32 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.3 3.2 (0.1) Reverse Repo 1.0 1.0 0 Repo* 0 1.0 1.0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
08-07-2025 09-07-2025 Change (US$ mn / Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 91.5 20.4 (71.1) Debt 58.3 (57.9) (116.2) Equity 33.2 78.4 45.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,232.0 991.5 (1,240.5) Debt 1,039.7 (361.3) (1,401.0) Equity 1,192.3 1,352.8 160.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Note: Mutual Fund data as of 07 Jul and 08 Jul 2025
Oil prices declined as tariff tensions dampened demand prospects.
Fig 7 – Commodities
09-07-2025 10-07-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 70.2 68.6 (2.2) Gold (US$/Troy Ounce) 3,313.7 3,324.1 0.3 Copper (US$/MT) 9,652.9 9,699.6 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,744.5 2,781.7 1.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,596.5 2,607.5 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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