Banking Mantra

Economic Weekly Wrap
27 April 2026 - 30 Apr 2026

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  • 27 April 2026

    US-Iran peace talks remained in limbo after the US President cancelled a planned visit by US officials to Islamabad over the weekend. The development has dampened market sentiment as it signals the continuation of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, crude oil prices have climbed to around US$107/bbl.

    On the macro front, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to a record low of 49.8 in Apr’26 from 53.5 in Mar’26, reflecting growing concerns over the inflationary impact of a prolonged conflict. One-year consumer inflation expectations also rose sharply to 4.7% from 3.8%. In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 84.4 in Apr’26 from 86.3 in Mar’26, marking its weakest reading since Mar’20 amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Investors will closely monitor developments surrounding US-Iran peace talks and upcoming central bank meetings in Japan, the US, the UK and the Eurozone.


    Global equity markets ended on a mixed note as investors tracked developments in US-Iran peace negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns raised by Bank of England officials regarding equity market valuations also weighed on sentiment. In India, the Sensex declined, led by losses in IT stocks, although it is trading higher today in line with other Asian markets.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones49,31049,231(0.2)
    S & P 5007,1087,1650.8
    FTSE10,45710,379(0.7)
    Nikkei59,14059,7161.0
    Hang Seng25,91525,9780.2
    Shanghai Comp4,0934,080(0.3)
    Sensex77,66476,664(1.3)
    Nifty24,17323,898(1.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies mostly strengthened against the US dollar, with the exception of the Indian rupee. The DXY Index declined by 0.2% amid expectations surrounding the confirmation of the next Federal Reserve Governor. The British pound gained following stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data for Mar’26. Meanwhile, the INR weakened due to elevated crude oil prices and continues to trade lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.16831.17220.3
    GBP/USD1.34671.35320.5
    USD/JPY159.71159.380.2
    USD/INR94.1194.26(0.2)
    USD/CNY6.83136.83200
    DXY Index98.7798.53(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global bond yields mostly declined, with Japan recording a slight increase and China remaining unchanged. The US 10Y Treasury yield eased marginally following weaker consumer sentiment data, while India's 10Y G-Sec yield softened despite elevated crude oil prices. However, it is trading higher today at around 6.95%, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks and firm energy prices.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change, bps
    US4.324.30(2)
    UK4.944.91(3)
    Germany3.012.99(1)
    Japan2.432.441
    China1.761.760
    India6.956.94(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.225.21(1)
    Tbill-182 days5.445.43(1)
    Tbill-364 days5.575.53(4)
    G-Sec 2Y6.016.00(1)
    India OIS-2M5.335.32(1)
    India OIS-9M5.725.70(2)
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.733.730
    US SOFR3.643.651

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Banking system liquidity remained stable, with net surplus liquidity unchanged at Rs 3.0 tn on 24 Apr 2026 compared with the previous trading session.

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.0 3.0 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    22-04-2026 23-04-2026 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 41.9 (13.9) (55.8)
       Debt 175.1 248.7 73.5
       Equity (133.2) (262.5) (129.3)
    Mutual Funds (Rs cr) (2,961.7) 1,253.3 4,215.0
       Debt 1,179.8 (876.2) (2,056.0)
       Equity (4,141.4) 2,129.5 6,271.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 17 Apr & 20 Apr 2026.


    Oil prices edged higher as US-Iran peace talks remained stalled, reinforcing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. Gold prices posted modest gains, zinc advanced, while copper and aluminium ended lower.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 105.1 105.3 0.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,694.1 4,709.5 0.3
    Copper (US$/ MT) 13,300.7 13,246.8 (0.4)
    Zinc (US$/ MT) 3,456.6 3,481.7 0.7
    Aluminium (US$/ MT) 3,620.0 3,591.0 (0.8)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 28 Apr 2026

    Global investors drew some optimism from reports indicating that Iran had presented a fresh peace proposal to the US. However, subsequent reports suggested that the US President is unlikely to accept the proposal, keeping uncertainty around the conflict elevated. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged, although three Monetary Policy Committee members unexpectedly voted in favour of a rate hike amid concerns over inflation and economic growth.

    On the macro front, the Bank of Japan revised its FY2027 growth forecast lower while raising both headline and core inflation projections. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Sentiment Index declined to a three-year low of -33.3 in May’26 from -28.1 in Apr’26 due to persistent geopolitical tensions. Domestically, the RBI issued final guidelines on the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and Basel III capital charge norms for credit risk, both of which will come into effect from 1 Apr 2027.


    Global equity markets ended on a mixed note. The breakdown of US-Iran peace talks increased uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated crude oil prices, the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision and weakness in AI-related stocks weighed on investor sentiment. In India, the Sensex gained, led by realty, power and metal stocks. It is trading higher today, while other Asian markets are trading mixed.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones49,23149,168(0.1)
    S & P 5007,1657,1740.1
    FTSE10,37910,321(0.6)
    Nikkei59,71660,5371.4
    Hang Seng25,97825,926(0.2)
    Shanghai Comp4,0804,0860.2
    Sensex76,66477,3040.8
    Nifty23,89824,0930.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies traded in a narrow range as investors monitored developments in US-Iran peace negotiations and awaited key central bank meetings. Despite elevated crude oil prices, the Indian rupee appreciated marginally. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed trends.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.17221.17210
    GBP/USD1.35321.35350
    USD/JPY159.38159.420
    USD/INR94.2694.200.1
    USD/CNY6.83206.82660.1
    DXY Index98.5398.500

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global bond yields mostly moved higher, except for India and China, which remained unchanged. UK 10Y yields recorded the largest increase, followed by the US, Germany and Japan, as investors remained concerned about inflationary pressures from elevated crude oil prices. India's benchmark 10Y yield remained flat but is trading higher today at around 6.97%, tracking global yields and firm oil prices.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change, bps
    US4.304.344
    UK4.914.976
    Germany2.993.034
    Japan2.442.484
    China1.761.760
    India6.946.940

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.215.3312
    Tbill-182 days5.435.39(4)
    Tbill-364 days5.535.596
    G-Sec 2Y6.006.023
    India OIS-2M5.325.31(1)
    India OIS-9M5.705.700
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.733.730
    US SOFR3.653.661

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Banking system liquidity moderated, with net surplus liquidity easing to Rs 2.7 tn on 27 Apr 2026 from Rs 3.0 tn in the previous session.

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.0 2.7 (0.3)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    23-04-2026 24-04-2026 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (13.9) (1,093.6) (1,079.8)
       Debt 248.7 (168.7) (417.4)
       Equity (262.5) (924.9) (662.4)
    Mutual Funds (Rs cr) (2,961.7) 1,253.3 4,215.0
       Debt 1,179.8 (876.2) (2,056.0)
       Equity (4,141.4) 2,129.5 6,271.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 17 Apr and 20 Apr 2026.


    Oil prices continued to rise as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks persisted. Gold and base metals mostly traded lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid elevated geopolitical risks.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 105.3 108.2 2.8
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,709.5 4,682.1 (0.6)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 13,246.8 13,139.3 (0.8)
    Zinc (US$/ MT) 3,481.7 3,395.4 (2.5)
    Aluminium (US$/ MT) 3,591.0 3,578.0 (0.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 29 Apr 2026

    Amidst the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, the UAE has announced its plans to exit OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May 2026. The decision reflects the country's long-term strategic and economic vision and its evolving energy profile. Notably, the UAE is the fourth-largest oil producer within OPEC. On the macro front, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 92.8 in Apr'26 (est.: 89.0) from 92.2 in Mar'26, supported by higher equity prices and improved labour market expectations following the ceasefire. However, consumers remained cautious due to elevated energy prices. In India, IIP growth improved to 4.1% in Mar'26 from 3.9% in Mar'25, driven by stronger mining and manufacturing output.


    Global equity markets ended mostly lower. Investors remained cautious as US-Iran peace talks continued to stall. US markets declined, led by losses in technology stocks ahead of key corporate earnings, while Japan's Nikkei fell after the Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged. In India, the Sensex dropped by around 400 points, weighed down by banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones49,16849,142(0.1)
    S & P 5007,1747,139(0.5)
    FTSE10,32110,3330.1
    Nikkei60,53759,917(1.0)
    Hang Seng25,92625,680(0.9)
    Shanghai Comp4,0864,079(0.2)
    Sensex77,30476,887(0.5)
    Nifty24,09323,996(0.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies weakened against the US dollar as the Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Among major currencies, the Indian rupee depreciated the most due to elevated crude oil prices. The INR is trading weaker today, broadly in line with other Asian currencies.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.17211.1712(0.1)
    GBP/USD1.35351.3517(0.1)
    USD/JPY159.42159.62(0.1)
    USD/INR94.2094.55(0.4)
    USD/CNY6.82666.8376(0.2)
    DXY Index98.5098.640.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except for Japan and China, global 10-year bond yields moved higher. The US 10Y yield edged up ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, while UK and German yields rose by 3bps each. India's 10Y G-Sec yield also increased, reflecting elevated oil prices. Despite this, the benchmark yield is trading slightly lower today at around 6.97%.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change, bps
    US4.344.351
    UK4.975.013
    Germany3.033.073
    Japan2.482.480
    China1.761.760
    India6.946.984

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.335.24(9)
    Tbill-182 days5.395.445
    Tbill-364 days5.595.590
    G-Sec 2Y6.026.108
    India OIS-2M5.315.343
    India OIS-9M5.705.777
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.733.730
    US SOFR3.663.660

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Banking system liquidity remained broadly unchanged, with net surplus liquidity at Rs 2.7 tn on 28 Apr 2026.

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.7 2.7 (0.3)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    24-04-2026 27-04-2026 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (1,093.6) (508.5) 585.2
       Debt (168.7) (63.9) 104.8
       Equity (924.9) (444.5) 480.4
    Mutual Funds (Rs cr) (6,834.6) (2,765.4) 4,069.2
       Debt (7,842.9) (7,751.0) 92.0
       Equity 1,008.4 4,985.6 3,977.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 23 Apr & 24 Apr 2026.


    Oil prices rose above the US$ 100/bbl mark as US-Iran peace talks remained stalled.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 108.2 111.3 2.8
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,682.1 4,596.8 (1.8)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 13,139.3 12,951.1 (1.4)
    Zinc (US$/ MT) 3,395.4 3,368.4 (0.8)
    Aluminium (US$/ MT) 3,578.0 3,538.5 (1.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 30 Apr 2026

    The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged in the latest meeting with an 8-4 vote. Amongst the dissenters, 3 MPC members held the view that given the evolving geopolitical situation and its impact on inflation, the term “easing bias” in the policy statement would not be appropriate. Investors have ruled out any rate cuts this year and have increased bets of a rate hike in early 2027. Separately macro data showed an improvement in US durable goods orders and housing starts. On the other hand, trade deficit expanded due to higher imports. In China, manufacturing PMI

    moderated marginally to 50.3 in Apr’26 from 50.4 in Mar’26. It however, remained in the expansionary territory for the 2nd straight month led by strong growth in new export orders. Industrial production in Japan declined by 0.5% in Mar’26 (est. +1.1%), following a 2% decline in Feb’26. This was led by a decline in chemical and petroleum related sectors possibly due to a hit from the Middle East crisis.


    Barring HK, China and India, other global indices closed lower. Continued impasse between US and Iran weighed on investor sentiments. Dow Jones was dragged by industrial and financial stocks. Sensex rose, led by gains in FMCG stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian indices are trading mixed

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones49,14248,862(0.6)
    S & P 5007,1397,136(0.0)
    FTSE10,33310,213(1.2)
    Nikkei60,53759,917(1.0)
    Hang Seng25,68026,1121.7
    Shanghai Comp4,0794,1080.7
    Sensex76,88777,4960.8
    Nifty23,99624,1780.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies ended weaker as the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened following the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance. The Japanese yen weakened to its lowest level since Jul'24 amid uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike. The Indian rupee traded beyond the 95/$ mark due to elevated crude oil prices, while other Asian currencies also weakened.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.17121.1677(0.3)
    GBP/USD1.35171.3475(0.3)
    USD/JPY159.62160.41(0.5)
    USD/INR94.5594.85(0.3)
    USD/CNY6.83766.84040
    DXY Index98.6498.960.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except for Japan and China, major global 10Y bond yields moved higher. The US 10Y yield jumped by 8bps amid soaring oil prices, the Fed's hawkish policy stance and a divided voting pattern. UK yields crossed the 5% mark due to inflation concerns, while India's 10Y yield rose by 1bp and is trading around 7.06% today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change, bps
    US4.354.438
    UK5.015.076
    Germany3.073.114
    Japan2.482.480
    China1.761.75(1)
    India6.986.991

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.245.251
    Tbill-182 days5.445.462
    Tbill-364 days5.595.645
    G-Sec 2Y6.106.188
    India OIS-2M5.345.362
    India OIS-9M5.775.792
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.733.730
    US SOFR3.663.660

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Banking system liquidity moderated further, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 2.1 tn on 29 Apr 2026.

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.6 2.1 (0.5)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    27-04-2026 28-04-2026 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (508.5) (80.0) 428.4
       Debt (63.9) 130.7 194.6
       Equity (444.5) (210.7) 233.8
    Mutual Funds (Rs cr) (2,765.4) (727.8) 2,037.7
       Debt (7,751.0) (4,803.7) 2,947.3
       Equity 4,985.6 4,075.9 (909.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 Apr & 27 Apr 2026.


    Oil prices surged by over 6% to their highest level since Jun'22 as the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over global supply disruptions.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    28-04-2026 29-04-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)111.3118.06.1
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,596.84,548.0(1.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT)12,951.112,924.4(0.2)
    Zinc (US$/ MT)3,368.43,300.6(2.0)
    Aluminium (US$/ MT)3,538.53,488.5(1.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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