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News reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has refused the proposal sent by Iran. US has sent a revised version to them, which is currently under review by Iran. Also, President Trump has signalled that US may increase tariffs on European cars and trucks to 25%, if the automakers do not comply with EU-US trade agreement measures. Separately on the macro front, Apr’26 ISM manufacturing index remained unchanged from the previous month at 52.7(est.: 53.2), as sub-index for production, employment and backlog of orders fell, while that of new orders and prices rose. In Japan (55.1 in Apr’26 versus 51.6 in Mar’26) and UK (53.7 versus 51), manufacturing sectors registered a recovery in Apr’26. This was primarily due to clearing of backlog of orders, higher new orders (both domestic and external) and production. On the domestic front, price of commercial LPG gas cylinder has been increased by Rs 993 to ~Rs 3,071 for 19kg cylinder and by Rs 261 for 5kg cylinder.
Global stock indices closed mixed. Better than expected earnings reports and technology shares supported the rally in S&P500. Weak ISM manufacturing impacted Dow Jones. Nikkei rose the most, supported by technology stocks. Sensex is trading higher today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in HK, China and India were closed on 01-05-2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in China and India were closed on 01-05-2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 27 Apr and 28 Apr 2026.
Oil prices fell by ~5% as investors assessed the impact of UAE exiting OPEC.
The fragile truce between US and Iran frayed as geopolitical tension flared up yet again, as both the countries exchanged fire in the Gulf over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This came in after recent reports of US President Donald Trump rejecting the proposal sent by Iran. With these recent developments, crude prices have surged again, with investors now concerned about elevated inflation and US Fed’s interest rate outlook. Investors have already priced in 37% chance of a rate hike by Mar’27. Separately, US equity inflows slipped to 6-week low to US$ 911bn by 29 Apr 2026, smallest weekly purchase since 18 March. Separately in line with expectation, RBA lifted rates by 25bps to 4.35% in May’26. On the domestic front, India announced election outcome of 5-states
Global stock indices closed mixed. US indices were down as both US and Iran traded blows over the Strait, jeopardizing the ceasefire agreement. Investors will closely await the US jobs data to analyse the strength of the economy. Sensex edged up with gains in real estate and capital good stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in HK, China and India were closed on 01-05-2026. Markets in UK and Japan were closed on 04-05-2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in China and India were closed on 01-05-2026. Markets in UK and Japan were closed on 04-05-2026.
Oil prices rose by ~6%, following reports of attacks by Iran on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and UAE’s port of Fujairah.
There are new reports stating the war in the Middle East might finally be ending. There are ongoing discussions on a one-page memorandum, which will lead to reopening of the strait and lifting of US sanctions. The VIX volatility index also nudged down to its lowest level in over 3-months. On the macro front, as per ADP report, US added over 109k jobs in Apr’26, much higher than expected, with wages up by 4.4% since last year. Job addition continued to remain concentrated in certain sectors, including education and healthcare, followed by trade and utilities. Separately, services PMI in Eurozone slipped into contraction at 47.6 in Apr’26 (from 50.2), the lowest reading in over 5-years. This was due to slower demand and uncertainty arising from the ongoing conflict. In China, private services PMI expanded to 52.6 from 52.1 at a much faster pace, despite input cost pressure.
Global stock indices edged up on hopes of a possible end to the West Asia conflict and easing oil prices. A strong rally in AI-related stocks lifted US indices. Among other indices, FTSE gained the most, followed by advances across other Asian markets. Sensex rebounded, led by real estate, banking and auto stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.
Global currencies appreciated against the US dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% as signs emerged of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. JPY (1%) and INR (0.7%) appreciated the most, supported by a sharp decline in oil prices. However, INR is trading marginally weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Barring yields in China and Japan, other global yields fell sharply. The UK's 10Y yield declined the most (-12bps), followed by India and the US. Yields eased as oil prices tumbled following reports of a possible peace deal between the US and Iran. The pause in "Project Freedom" also supported investor sentiment. India's 10Y yield fell by 10bps and is trading broadly steady at 6.93% today.
Foreign institutional investors turned net sellers, while mutual funds continued to record positive inflows. Debt outflows narrowed and equity inflows into mutual funds strengthened during the period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 Apr and 04 May 2026.
Crude oil prices dropped sharply as reports of a possible peace deal between the US and Iran raised expectations of easing geopolitical tensions and improved oil supply.
In the US, weekly jobless claims inched up by 10k to 200k from last week, lower than the estimate of 205k. The 4-week moving average declined by 4.5k to 203.3k from 207.8k in the previous week. This signalled stability in the labour market despite the recent oil price shock. Ahead of the jobs report scheduled for release later today, non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 65k compared with 178k in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. Against this backdrop, investors expect the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through CY26. Separately, Norway's Central Bank raised rates in line with expectations to tackle higher inflation, becoming the second central bank after the RBA to hike rates.
Global stock indices closed mixed as investors monitored developments and escalating tensions between the US and Iran amid reports of renewed military action. Nikkei surged to a record high, led by technology and basic material stocks. Sensex slipped on losses in IT stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.
Currencies of advanced economies depreciated, while the Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan appreciated. The DXY Index remained broadly unchanged as renewed Middle East tensions weighed on investor sentiment. INR appreciated by 0.4% on softer crude oil prices, although it is trading marginally weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Global bond yields closed mixed. The US 10-year yield rose by 4bps as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Reports suggest Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless compensation for damages is paid. India's 10-year yield increased by 1bp to 6.93% and is trading higher today at 6.96% following global cues.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 4th and 5th May 2026.
Crude oil prices declined further as investors tracked ongoing developments between the US and Iran.
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