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Global markets showed mixed performance tracking disruption in the peace deal between the US and Iran and AI-related developments. On the macro front, US existing home sales rose by 0.2% MoM to 4.02mn. All eyes will be on the CPI release, which is expected to show some pass-through of higher energy costs (Bloomberg est.: +0.6% MoM pickup in Apr’26). In Japan, household spending declined by 2.9% YoY in Mar’26. On the other hand, BoJ minutes showed the possibility of a rate hike in the next policy meeting amidst elevated inflationary risks from the Middle East crisis. PBOC officials also highlighted concerns over inflationary pressure. The US-China summit remains a crucial event, with defence, AI, rare earths and agricultural purchases expected to be the key focus areas. On the domestic front, India's CPI is expected to inch up (BoB est.: 4%) on account of a pick-up in food inflation.
Global indices ended mixed even as Middle East tensions remained elevated. Equity markets in the US rose as investors awaited the US CPI report. The S&P 500 rose to a record high, led by a rally in semiconductor stocks. In India, the Sensex declined sharply due to deep losses in consumer durables and real estate stocks. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields firmed up as fears of elevated energy prices built up anticipation of stickier borrowing costs. The UK's 10Y yield rose the most, followed by the US. The direction of global yields appears to remain elevated this month due to the lack of resolution in the conflict between the US and Iran. India's 10Y yield rose by 5bps amid inflationary concerns. It is trading higher at 7.04% today.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 6 May and 7 May 2026.
Oil prices increased further after US rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal.
Global markets eyed major macro releases in the US. CPI inflation in the region rose to 3.8% in Apr’26 from 3.3% in Mar’26. On a sequential basis, CPI increased by 0.6%. Price pressures were evident in gasoline prices, grocery costs and rent. Gas prices have surged by 28% over the past two months due to the impact of the ongoing war. Core CPI also remained sticky at 2.8% in Apr’26 compared with 2.6% in Mar’26. Elevated inflationary risks weighed on equity and currency markets amid concerns over higher borrowing costs. Global bond yields also witnessed a broad-based increase. On the domestic front, India more than doubled the import tariff on gold and silver to 15% from 6% earlier. Customs duty on precious metals has also been revised. This emergency measure aims to contain the trade deficit amid a volatile geopolitical environment and a weakening currency.
Except for the Dow Jones and Nikkei, global equity indices ended lower amid uncertainty over the future of the US-Iran ceasefire. US indices tracked the sharper-than-expected CPI data. Nikkei gained on the back of a rally in AI-related stocks. Sensex declined for the fourth consecutive session, with real estate and consumer durable stocks leading the losses. Sensex is trading higher today, while other Asian markets are trading mixed.
Global currencies depreciated. The DXY rose on safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions persisted. Despite an improvement in Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index, the euro weakened. INR slipped to another record low. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global yields firmed up as inflation rose in major economies, particularly the US and Germany. The UK's 10Y yield increased the most, reflecting political developments in the region. The upward pressure on yields is likely to persist until a formal peace agreement is reached. India's 10Y yield edged up marginally, supported by lower-than-expected CPI data. It is trading at 7.03% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 7 May and 8 May 2026.
Oil prices increased further amidst elevated tensions between the US and Iran.
Global equity indices recouped their earlier day losses ahead of the US-China meeting, where the focus will be on trade and investment. Elsewhere, the currency market showed stress in anticipation of higher borrowing costs. On the macro front, US PPI firmed up by 1.4% MoM in Apr'26 compared with 0.7% in Mar'26. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) also increased by 1.0%, far higher than the 0.2% increase seen in Mar'26. Thus, price pressure from war-related disruption is already visible. Final demand PPI on a YoY basis is at its highest level since Dec'22. In Germany as well, the wholesale price index rose by 2.0% MoM and by 6.3% YoY in Apr'26. On the domestic front, the new MSP for kharif crops for 2026-27 has been announced, with a 3% hike in paddy prices (Rs 2,441/quintal) from last year. The highest increase in terms of quantum has been noted for sunflower (up 8.1%), followed by cotton.
Except the Dow Jones, other global indices ended higher. The S&P 500 rose further, driven by a surge in AI-related stocks. Investors also awaited the outcome of the US-China talks. Nikkei rose by 0.8%, with strong gains in banking and real estate stocks. Sensex snapped its losing streak and ended marginally higher, led by gains in metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with its Asian peers.
Except CNY, other global currencies declined. DXY rose by 0.2%, supported by hawkish comments from a key Fed official. EUR depreciated by 0.2% as GDP growth moderated in Q1 2026. INR depreciated further, tracking weak global cues. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Global yields closed mixed. The UK's 10Y yield showed some correction amid uncertainty about the fiscal path. Germany's 10Y yield remained stable following Q1 Euro Area GDP data. The US 10Y yield inched up slightly after the PPI data release. India's 10Y yield also closed stable and is trading at the same level today, with investors awaiting the WPI data release for cues on the pass-through to producer prices.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 8 May and 11 May 2026.
Oil prices declined as investors turned their focus on US-China meeting.
Global markets monitored political developments in the UK and cues from the US-China meeting. On the macro front, US data showed the impact of the war-related crisis. Retail sales rose at a softer pace of 0.5% MoM in Apr'26, compared with 1.6% in Mar'26. Retail sales excluding autos also increased at a moderate pace of 0.7% versus 1.9% earlier. Import prices stiffened by 1.9% MoM in Apr'26 compared with 0.9% in Mar'26. Jobless claims for the week ended 9 May 2026 rose to 211K from 199K in the previous week. In the UK, preliminary Q1 GDP grew by 0.6%, supported by buoyant private consumption. In Japan, PPI rose at a faster pace of 2.3% MoM. On the domestic front, petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre with immediate effect. This poses an upside risk to the fuel component of both WPI and CPI in the coming days.
Except Japan and China, markets elsewhere ended higher. A technology-led rally pushed US stocks higher. On the other hand, Nikkei declined after a key BoJ member advocated an early rate hike. Sensex rose by 1.1% as metal and power stocks surged. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian markets are trading mixed.
Except CNY, other global currencies depreciated. DXY rose following major macroeconomic data releases. GBP declined the most even as GDP growth surpassed estimates. INR touched another record low and is trading further weaker today, inching closer to the 96/$ mark. Other Asian currencies are also trading lower.
Global yields closed mixed. The UK's 10Y yield softened despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth. Germany's 10Y yield edged lower even as an ECB official hinted at a possible rate hike in the next policy meeting. Japan's 10Y yield moved higher ahead of PPI data, which showed persistent price pressures. India's 10Y yield fell by 3bps and is trading higher at 7.05% today, tracking the recent increase in petrol and diesel prices.
Oil prices were broadly steady monitoring US-China meeting.
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