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Global markets monitored more confrontational statements made by the leaders of US and Iran regarding the ongoing war. Hopes of a peace deal between the two are increasingly fading with no concrete signal about opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Noting these developments, analysts are now concerned about the economic cost of the war—rising debt, inflation and fiscal deficit levels. Elevated price pressures are also bringing “higher for longer” policy rate theory back on the table. Analysts are pricing in 75bps rate hike by BoE in the next 12 months. Fed may also have to hike rates if CPI continues to inch up. Capacity utilization in the US was at 76.1% in Apr’26, lower than the long-run average of 79.4%. In contrast, industrial production rose by 0.7%, up from (-) 0.3% in Mar’26. Domestically, India’s exports rose by 13.8% in Apr’26 (-7.4% in Mar’26), and imports were up by 10% (-6.5%).
Global indices closed lower. US indices were down as fears of inflation have been reignited with rising crude prices. 10 out of 11 sectors in S&P 500 fell. Nikkei dropped the most, in a profit booking session with losses in tech stocks. Sensex was down with losses in metal, real estate and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed lower. US$ firmed up as investors monitored macro data. GBP declined amidst the ongoing political turmoil in UK. INR depreciated (record low) given the spike in oil prices. It is trading even lower today, and has breached Rs 96/$ mark. Other Asian currencies are also trading weaker.
Global yields closed higher. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most, followed by that of Germany and US. Investors are worried about price pressures leading to higher policy rates for longer. Debt and fiscal deficit levels also remain a concern. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, tracking rise in domestic fuel prices. It is trading even higher at 7.13% today, following global cues.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 8 May and 11 May 2026.
Oil prices have inched up, tracking news of fading chances of peace talks between US and Iran.
Investors globally are monitoring developments of peace negotiations between US and Iran. The latest proposal by Iran has indicated that it may agree not to pursue a nuclear weapon. However, since there are no commitments regarding enrichment of Uranium, the deal has hit a snag. Countries like Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are said to be involved in the mediation process. On the macro front, Japan recorded 2.1% GDP growth in Q1CY26, up from estimated 1.7% and 0.8% in Q4CY25. This indicates that the economy was on a solid footing, supported by private consumption (0.3%) and export growth (0.3%). In China, Apr’26 data showed that industrial production (4.1% versus 5.7% in Mar’26), retail sales (0.2% versus 1.7%) and FAI (-1.6% in Jan-Apr versus 1.7% in Q1), all slowed reflecting deepening global energy crisis. Domestically, government has raised pump price of diesel by Rs 0.91/lt and petrol by Rs 0.87/lt—second hike in 5 days.
Global indices closed mixed as investors continue to track the ongoing developments in the Middle East. Awaiting earnings report from a tech giant, US indices ended mixed. FTSE surged the most. Sensex rebounded with gains in IT related stocks. It is trading higher today in line with other Asian indices.
Global currencies ended mixed against US$. DXY retreated as investors turned watchful on news pertaining to conflict and ahead of the Fed minutes which might offer cues on rate trajectory. INR slipped to a record low amidst rising oil prices. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except Japan and India, other global yields inched down. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most, followed by that of Germany and US. Investors await developments on negotiations between US and Iran. India’s 10Y yield rose by 7bps, tracking elevated oil prices and rise in CNG prices. However, following global cues and despite rise in domestic fuel prices, it is trading a tad lower at 7.10% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 May and 14 May 2026.
Oil prices rose further, as tensions between US and Iran remain elevated.
US President is hopeful that the Iran war might come to an end soon. However, he also clarified that in case a deal is not made soon, then US may again resort to attacking Iran. On the macro front, pending home sales in the US rose by 1.4% (MoM) in Apr’26, up from 1.7% in Mar’26. Elevated mortgage rates (30Y fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.33% in Apr’26 from 6.18% in Mar’26), and rising home prices, led to this increase. Separately, minutes of RBA’s May’26 meeting shows that members hiked rates for the third time noting stickiness in inflation and the impact of Iran war. Members have hinted at a pause for the next meeting in Jun’26 (60% probability). In the UK, unemployment rate for Q1CY26 unexpectedly rose to 5% (est.: 4.9%). Payroll data shows that payroll decline continues in Apr’26 as well (- 100k versus -28k in Mar’26), signalling weakening of the labour market.
Global indices closed mixed as investors continue to track the changing geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Dip in US indices was led by subdued macro data (higher than expected pending home sales) and risks of elevated inflation. Sensex too edged down, with losses in metal and banking stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.
Global currencies weakened against the dollar. DXY rose to 6-week high as investors are expecting a hawkish shift from Fed to manage energy-led inflation. INR breached the 96.5/$ mark, record low led by persistent FPI outflows. It is trading even lower today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except China and India, other global yields inched up. US 10Y yield rose the most. Even 30Y yield hit its highest level (5.18%) since 2007 crisis, as investors believe inflation to be stickier than previously expected. Also, the financial cost of Iran war is a concern. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, tracking dip in oil prices. However, following global cues, it is trading a tad higher at 7.12% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14 May and 15 May 2026.
• Oil prices fell, as US decided to pause planned strikes on Iran for now.
Global markets cheered signals pointing towards an early resolution of the Iran war. The US President stated that peace deal negotiations are in their final stage. Additionally, Iran’s Navy allowing 26 ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz boosted investor sentiment.
On the macro front, the minutes of the FOMC meeting held in May indicated that policymakers continue to maintain an easing bias. Members acknowledged that if inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target or if the labour market weakens, interest rate cuts could be considered. However, they cautioned that if the Iran war continues for an extended period and inflation remains persistently above the target, further monetary policy tightening may be required. In the UK, CPI inflation eased to 2.8% in Apr’26 (est.: 3.0%) from 3.3% in Mar’26, supported by lower electricity and gas prices. On the domestic front, the RBI announced a US$5 billion USD/INR buy-sell swap auction for a three-year tenor to inject durable liquidity into the banking system and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note. US indices edged higher as declining crude oil prices and easing pressure in the bond market supported investor sentiment. Investors also continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. In India, the Sensex advanced, led by strong gains in power and capital goods stocks. It is trading higher today, while other Asian markets are showing mixed performance.
Except the Indian Rupee, other major global currencies strengthened against the US dollar. The DXY Index remained broadly steady as investors digested the FOMC meeting minutes. The INR ended at another record low despite the RBI announcing a US$5 billion USD/INR buy-sell swap auction to support foreign exchange reserves. The rupee is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed trends.
Pressure on global bond yields eased. Ten-year government bond yields in the UK and Germany declined the most, followed by the US, as Iran's decision to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over global supply disruptions. The easing bias reflected in the FOMC minutes also supported investor sentiment. Tracking global cues, India's benchmark 10Y government bond yield declined by 3 basis points and is trading even lower today at around 7.07%.
System liquidity moderated, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 1.3 tn on 20 May 2026 from Rs 1.9 tn in the previous session.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 May and 18 May 2026.
Oil prices fell sharply after Iran allowed 26 vessels, including several non-Iranian oil tankers, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold and base metals posted gains as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments.
Global investors remained optimistic as expectations of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran continued to improve. As a result, oil prices declined significantly and pressure on global bond yields eased.
On the macro front, the US labour market remained resilient, with initial jobless claims declining by 3,000 to 209,000 for the week ending 16 May 2026. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also fell by 6,500 to 1.77 million. However, single-family housing starts dropped by 9.0% in Apr’26 after rising 10.7% in Mar’26. Flash PMI data showed moderation in US services activity during May’26, while manufacturing rebounded. Elsewhere, PMI readings indicated contraction in the services sector across the UK, Eurozone and Australia. In India, services activity improved marginally to 58.9 from 58.8, while manufacturing growth eased to 54.3 from 54.7.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note. US indices advanced as investors remained hopeful of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, supported by resilient labour market data. Japan’s Nikkei surged over 3%, led by gains in real estate and banking stocks. In India, the Sensex slipped due to weakness in IT and FMCG stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian markets.
Except the Indian Rupee, major global currencies traded largely unchanged against the US dollar. The DXY Index strengthened on the back of robust US labour market data and ahead of the consumer sentiment report. The Indian Rupee appreciated as oil prices declined and following the RBI's liquidity infusion measures. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed trends.
Global bond yields closed on a mixed note. Benchmark 10-year yields in the US and the UK declined the most as investors monitored weaker US housing data and optimism surrounding a possible US-Iran peace agreement. India's benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose by 4 basis points as markets assessed the RBI's likely policy path. However, supported by softer oil prices and global cues, it is trading lower today at around 7.08%.
Banking system liquidity moderated further, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 0.6 tn on 21 May 2026 from Rs 1.3 tn in the previous session.
Oil prices declined further amid growing optimism over a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. Gold remained broadly unchanged, while copper and zinc prices softened. Aluminium was the only major base metal to register gains.
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