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Global markets witnessed a realignment in risk sentiment following reports of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Equity markets rebounded, while US and European bond yields declined sharply. Oil prices dropped significantly after news of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran stated that full access remains conditional on the removal of the US blockade on its ports, keeping some uncertainty in place.
On the macro front, the Eurozone's current account surplus narrowed to €24.9bn in Feb'26 from €40.4bn in Jan'26, largely due to a decline in the trade surplus. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month, with the 1Y LPR at 3.0% and the 5Y LPR at 3.5%, supported by stronger-than-expected Q1CY26 GDP growth.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note. US indices advanced after reports suggested that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened during the ceasefire period. However, Japan's Nikkei retreated from record highs due to weakness in technology stocks. In India, the Sensex gained, led by FMCG, capital goods and power stocks, although it is trading lower today while other Asian markets are trading higher.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened as optimism over US-Iran peace talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The euro and British pound weakened slightly, while the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Indian rupee strengthened. The INR appreciated on the back of lower crude oil prices, although it is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading stronger.
Except for Japan and India, major global 10Y bond yields declined as investors welcomed the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The UK recorded the sharpest decline in yields, followed by Germany and the US. India's 10Y G-Sec yield rose by 2bps. However, amid continued uncertainty over the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark 10Y yield is trading broadly unchanged at around 6.91% today.
Banking system liquidity improved marginally, with net surplus liquidity rising to Rs 4.4 tn on 17 Apr 2026 from Rs 4.1 tn in the previous session.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 6 Apr & 7 Apr 2026.
Crude oil prices declined sharply following reports that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened during the ceasefire period. Gold prices edged higher, while base metals showed mixed performance.
Global markets remained cautious as mixed messaging from the US and Iran regarding a second round of peace talks added to uncertainty surrounding the ongoing crisis in West Asia. With the 10-day ceasefire nearing its end on 22 Apr, Iran reiterated that the US blockade on its ports must be lifted before any agreement, while the US maintained that the blockade would remain until a deal is reached. As a result, investors adopted a wait-and-watch approach.
On the macro front, Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.4% month-on-month in Mar'26, significantly above expectations of a 1.4% increase, driven by higher oil prices. In the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index increased by 0.8% month-on-month in Apr'26, matching the previous month's growth amid resilient housing demand. In India, the Index of Eight Core Industries contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in Mar'26, compared with a 2.8% increase in Feb'26, led by declines in fertilizers, crude oil, coal and electricity output.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note as investors closely tracked developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations and the unresolved blockade situation. Market participants also remained focused on corporate earnings and awaited comments ahead of Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing, as he is widely viewed as the next potential Fed Chair. Indian equities remained steady, with the Sensex opening marginally higher today, while Asian markets traded mixed.
Global currencies ended mixed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained unchanged as investors awaited further developments in the next round of peace talks and upcoming US retail sales data. The euro and British pound posted modest gains, while the Indian rupee weakened amid rising crude oil prices. The INR is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed performance.
Global 10Y bond yields ended mixed. The UK recorded the largest increase in yields, followed by Germany, as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on investor sentiment. India's 10Y G-Sec yield declined by 2bps and is trading broadly unchanged today at around 6.89%, despite higher crude oil prices.
Banking system liquidity moderated, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 4.1 tn on 20 Apr 2026 from Rs 4.4 tn in the previous session.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Apr & 16 Apr 2026.
Crude oil prices surged as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace talks intensified, while Kuwait declared force majeure on its oil shipments. Precious and base metals traded mixed during the session.
US President Donald Trump announced that the US will extend the ceasefire until it receives a "unified proposal" from Iran, while reiterating that the blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. In response, Iran's UN ambassador stated that no negotiations would take place unless the US first lifts the blockade, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.
On the macro front, US retail sales rose by 1.7% in Mar'26, exceeding market expectations of 1.4%, while core retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) increased by 1.9%, supported by strong demand for furniture, electronics, appliances, and food & beverage stores. Meanwhile, Germany's ZEW Business Sentiment Index declined sharply to a three-year low of -17.2 in Mar'26 from -0.5 in the previous month, reflecting concerns over higher energy prices and weaker GDP growth. Growth forecasts for CY26 have consequently been revised down to 0.5%.
Global equity markets ended mostly higher, except for the US and UK markets. Investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the extended US-Iran ceasefire. Japan's Nikkei touched another record high, supported by a stronger trade surplus, while India's Sensex advanced, led by gains in FMCG and real estate stocks. However, Sensex is trading lower today, whereas other Asian markets are showing mixed performance.
Global currencies weakened against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened as investors focused on comments from the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee. The euro declined following weaker macroeconomic data, while the Indian rupee depreciated due to rising crude oil prices. The INR is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed movement.
Global 10-year bond yields edged higher across major developed markets, while Asian yields remained largely stable. UK and US yields recorded the biggest increases after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data and comments from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh reaffirming the importance of Federal Reserve independence. India's benchmark 10Y government bond yield remained unchanged at 6.89%, although it is trading slightly higher today at around 6.91%, tracking the rise in crude oil prices and global bond yields.
Banking system liquidity tightened during the session, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 3.3 tn on 21 Apr 2026 from Rs 4.1 tn in the previous session.
Crude oil prices increased as the US and Iran remained at an impasse over the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Gold prices declined sharply, while industrial metals posted mixed performance during the session.
US President Donald Trump has suggested that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement by this week. However, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and reports of renewed Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue to cloud the outlook. On the macro front, the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% YoY in Mar'26, in line with expectations and up from 3.0% in Feb'26, reflecting the impact of higher fuel prices. Motor fuel, airfares, and food & beverages were the key contributors, while Core CPI eased marginally to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Meanwhile, Japan's exports increased by 11.7% YoY in Mar'26, while imports rose by 10.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of ¥667bn. However, Japan recorded a trade deficit of ¥1.7tn for the fiscal year ended Mar'26. Flash PMI data indicated a sharp improvement in manufacturing activity to 54.9 in Apr'26 from 51.6 in Mar'26, supported by stronger new orders, although services activity moderated to 51.2 from 53.4.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note amid continued uncertainty in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. The S&P 500 touched a record high, supported by better-than-expected corporate earnings, while Japan's Nikkei advanced on gains in technology stocks and a weaker yen. In India, the Sensex declined due to weakness in IT and banking stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Global currencies closed mostly weaker against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened amid the ongoing standoff between the US and Iran. The euro weakened as geopolitical tensions persisted, while the British pound remained broadly unchanged. The Indian rupee depreciated further due to rising crude oil prices and is trading weaker today, whereas other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global 10Y bond yields remained largely range-bound. The US 10Y yield edged up by 1bp as investors closely monitored the fragile ceasefire situation in West Asia, while the UK's 10Y yield rose following higher-than-expected inflation data. India's 10Y government bond yield increased by 3bps, reflecting renewed strength in crude oil prices. Tracking global cues, the benchmark yield is trading higher today at around 6.95%.
Banking system liquidity remained unchanged, with net surplus liquidity standing at Rs 3.3 tn on 22 Apr 2026, the same level as the previous session.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 17 Apr & 20 Apr 2026.
Crude oil prices crossed the US$100/bbl mark as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Gold and base metals also traded higher, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
Peace talks between the US and Iran appear to have stalled over Iran's nuclear programme and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic through the Strait has come to a near standstill, pushing global crude oil prices higher. On the macro front, flash PMI data released by S&P Global showed that manufacturing activity rebounded across major economies, including the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan and India, supported by inventory building and front-loading of new orders during the brief easing of geopolitical tensions earlier this month.
Services sector activity also improved across most regions, although the Eurozone and Japan continued to witness weaker momentum. In India, the RBI's monthly bulletin cautioned that persistent global supply chain disruptions, elevated crude oil prices and the risk of a weak monsoon could increase upside risks to inflation. The central bank also noted that prolonged supply-side shocks may disrupt global trade flows and lead to financial market spillovers.
Global equity markets ended lower as investors monitored stalled US-Iran peace talks and renewed uncertainty in the Middle East. Within the S&P 500, technology stocks led the decline, with six out of eleven sectors closing in the red. In India, the Sensex also ended lower, dragged by losses in auto and banking stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian markets.
Global currencies mostly weakened against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened on the back of higher crude oil prices and rising geopolitical risks. Despite stronger-than-expected trade data, the Japanese yen remained under pressure. The Indian rupee weakened beyond the 94 per US dollar mark amid elevated oil prices and is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are showing mixed performance.
Barring Germany, major global 10-year bond yields moved higher. UK, China and India recorded the largest increases, while the US 10Y yield rose by 2bps as investors tracked escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices. India's 10Y government bond yield increased by 3bps as Brent crude hovered around US$105/bbl. Tracking global developments, the benchmark 10Y yield is trading higher today at around 6.97%.
Banking system liquidity moderated further, with net surplus liquidity declining to Rs 3.0 tn on 23 Apr 2026 from Rs 3.3 tn in the previous session.
Crude oil prices climbed above US$105/bbl as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Gold and base metals ended lower, except aluminium, which posted a marginal gain.
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