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Economic Weekly Wrap
30 Mar 2026 - 2 Apr 2026

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  • 30 March 2026

    The fresh round of developments over the weekend includes reports of Iran's strikes on Middle Eastern aluminium plants. This has led international crude prices to trade at their highest level since Jun'22 at US$115/bbl in today's session. All metal prices have firmed up, with copper trading higher by 0.4%, zinc by 1.7%, and aluminium by 0.8%.

    Gold prices remain capped by a firm DXY. Among major macro releases, the University of Michigan sentiment index softened, while 1-year inflation expectations firmed up. In the UK, GfK consumer confidence edged lower and retail sales recorded a sequential decline.

    On the domestic front, the Centre's H1FY27 borrowing is pegged at Rs 8.2 lakh crore. In another development, RBI has capped the net open positions of banks to curb currency volatility. This has led INR to trade stronger by around 0.9% in today's session.


    Except China and Hong Kong, stocks elsewhere declined. Investors continued to monitor developments in West Asia even as oil prices traded near a four-year high. US indices declined amidst losses in mega-cap and software stocks. Sensex fell by 2.2% as real estate and auto stocks declined sharply. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones45,96045,167(1.7)
    S & P 5006,4776,369(1.7)
    FTSE9,9729,967(0.0)
    Nikkei53,60453,373(0.4)
    Hang Seng24,85624,9520.4
    Shanghai Comp3,8893,9140.6
    Sensex75,27373,583(2.2)
    Nifty23,30622,820(2.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except CNY, other currencies ended weaker against the dollar. DXY rose supported by safe-haven demand as the conflict in West Asia spread further. INR depreciated sharply by 0.9% to close at a record low. However, it is trading stronger today after RBI intervention.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.15271.1509(0.2)
    GBP/USD1.33301.3259(0.5)
    USD/JPY159.81160.31(0.3)
    USD/INR93.9794.82(0.9)
    USD/CNY6.91406.91120.0
    DXY Index99.90100.150.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Japan's 10Y yield showed the sharpest upward correction tracking yen movement. India's 10Y yield rose by 7bps ahead of the borrowing calendar and is trading at similar levels today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change, bps
    US4.414.432
    UK4.974.970
    Germany3.073.092
    Japan2.282.3911
    China1.821.820
    India6.886.947

    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.375.436
    Tbill-182 days5.435.5411
    Tbill-364 days5.635.652
    G-Sec 2Y6.256.349
    India OIS-2M5.475.536
    India OIS-9M5.775.8912
    SONIA3.733.730
    US SOFR3.643.651

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)0.41.10.7

    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    24-03-2026 25-03-2026 Change
    FII (US$ mn)(856.5)(214.5)642.0
       Debt(87.9)(47.9)40.0
       Equity(768.6)(166.6)602.0
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)3,580.9(145.8)(3,726.7)
       Debt(7.9)(4,444.4)(4,436.4)
       Equity3,588.84,298.6709.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 & 20 Mar 2026


    Oil prices climbed further as investors braced for a prolonged war in West Asia.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    26-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)108.0112.64.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,376.14,494.12.7
    Copper (US$/ MT)12,076.812,124.10.4
    Zinc (US$/ MT)3,065.43,116.71.7
    Aluminium (US$/ MT)3,269.53,296.00.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

    ```
  • 01 Apr 2026

    Global markets showed slight respite amidst optimism over a likely resolution of the Middle East conflict, with prospects of the US looking to de-escalate. Stocks in the US inched up, while DXY softened.

    On the macro front, US Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved in Mar'26, while JOLTS job openings moderated. UK GDP rose by 0.1% as per Q4 final estimates, and China's manufacturing PMI remained stable.

    On the domestic front, RBI has given relief to trade finance by extending the period for realization of both pre-shipment and post-shipment export credit to 450 days for all disbursals made till 30 Jun'26, which was earlier valid till 31 Mar'26. In a separate release, India's IIP growth accelerated to 5.2% in Feb'26 from 5.1% in Jan'26, led by manufacturing output expanding by 6.0% from 5.3% in Jan'26. On a FYTD basis, industrial output rose at a steady pace of 4.1%, the same pace as last year.


    Global stocks ended mixed. While stocks in advanced economies advanced, Asian stocks (barring Hang Seng) ended weaker. Reports of possible de-escalation in the West Asia conflict lifted sentiments. In India, Sensex declined by 2.2%. Deep losses were noted in banking and real estate stocks. However, following global cues, Asian stocks including Sensex are trading higher today.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    30-03-2026 31-03-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones45,21646,3422.5
    S & P 5006,3446,5292.9
    FTSE10,12810,1760.5
    Nikkei51,88651,064(1.6)
    Hang Seng24,75124,7880.2
    Shanghai Comp3,9233,892(0.8)
    Sensex73,58371,948(2.2)
    Nifty22,82022,331(2.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research. Note: Indian markets were closed on 31 Mar 2026.


    Except INR, other currencies ended stronger against the dollar. DXY declined by 0.5% on expectations of a possible end to geopolitical tensions. EUR gained the most. INR closed broadly unchanged while monitoring higher oil prices. It is trading marginally stronger today, while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    30-03-2026 31-03-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.14651.15530.8
    GBP/USD1.31861.32270.3
    USD/JPY159.71158.720.6
    USD/INR94.8294.830.0
    USD/CNY6.91256.89440.3
    DXY Index100.5199.96(0.5)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research. Note: Indian markets were closed on 31 Mar 2026.


    Global yields softened amidst risk-off sentiments. Both US and Germany's 10Y yields softened by 3bps each. Major momentum was witnessed in India's 10Y yield which crossed the 7% mark as inflationary and fiscal concerns persisted.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    30-03-2026 31-03-2026 Change, bps
    US4.354.32(3)
    UK4.944.92(2)
    Germany3.043.00(3)
    Japan2.372.35(2)
    China1.811.821
    India6.947.049

    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    30-03-2026 31-03-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.435.38(5)
    Tbill-182 days5.545.53(1)
    Tbill-364 days5.655.64(1)
    G-Sec 2Y6.346.373
    India OIS-2M5.535.629
    India OIS-9M6.066.060
    SONIA3.733.730
    US SOFR3.633.630

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 27-03-2026 30-03-2026 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)1.12.51.4

    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    25-03-2026 27-03-2026 Change
    FII (US$ mn)(214.5)(237.3)(22.9)
       Debt(47.9)181.8229.6
       Equity(166.6)(419.1)(252.5)
    Mutual Funds (Rs cr)3,580.9(145.8)(3,726.7)
       Debt(7.9)(4,444.4)(4,436.4)
       Equity3,588.84,298.6709.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research. Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 & 20 Mar 2026.


    Oil prices rose further as investors monitored developments in the Middle East.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    30-03-2026 31-03-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)112.8118.44.9
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,510.94,668.13.5
    Copper (US$/ MT)12,141.012,256.81.0
    Zinc (US$/ MT)3,181.33,220.21.2
    Aluminium (US$/ MT)3,401.03,467.01.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research.

    ```
  • 02 Apr 2026

    Given uncertainty around US and Iran peace talks, oil prices rebounded and bond yields also inched up. Analysts are increasingly concerned about the impact of war on global inflation. BoE’s Chief Economist has warned that the central bank stands ready to act in response to rising inflationary pressures. Other central banks may adopt a similar stance if oil prices remain elevated.

    In Australia, RBA remains cautious as core inflation stayed sticky at 3.3% in Feb’26, unchanged from Jan’26, mainly due to housing inflation. In Japan, core inflation (excluding food and fuel) eased slightly to 2.5% in Feb’26 from 2.6% earlier. However, inflation prints are expected to rise across countries in Mar’26. In the US, flash services PMI dropped to an 11-month low of 51.1 in Mar’26 (vs 51.7 in Feb’26), reflecting weakening demand amid uncertainty and rising living costs.


    Global equity markets mostly closed higher (except the US), despite ongoing uncertainty around ceasefire talks. Hang Seng outperformed, driven by banking and gold stocks. Sensex also rallied, led by gains in consumer durables and banking stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with Asian markets.

    Table 1 – Stock Markets

    23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change, %
    Dow Jones46,20846,124(0.2)
    S & P 5006,5816,556(0.4)
    FTSE9,8949,9650.7
    Nikkei51,51552,2521.4
    Hang Seng24,38225,0642.8
    Shanghai Comp3,8133,8811.8
    Sensex72,69674,0681.9
    Nifty22,51322,9121.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies mostly weakened against the US dollar. DXY strengthened amid uncertainty over peace talks. INR appreciated slightly despite higher oil prices, though it is trading lower today.

    Table 2 – Currencies

    23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change, %
    EUR/USD1.16131.16080
    GBP/USD1.34311.3411(0.1)
    USD/JPY158.44158.70(0.2)
    USD/INR93.9893.880.1
    USD/CNY6.88386.8938(0.1)
    DXY Index98.9599.430.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Bond yields mostly edged higher, except in Japan and China. UK yields rose the most following hawkish commentary from BoE. India’s 10Y yield increased by 3bps due to rising oil prices, though it is trading slightly lower today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

    23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change, bps
    US4.344.362
    UK4.924.964
    Germany3.013.032
    Japan2.312.27(5)
    China1.841.84(1)
    India6.846.873

    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

    23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.295.378
    Tbill-182 days5.495.501
    Tbill-364 days5.605.677
    G-Sec 2Y6.126.219
    India OIS-2M5.495.47(2)
    India OIS-9M5.895.79(10)
    SONIA3.733.730
    US SOFR3.623.620

    Table 5 – Liquidity

    Rs tn 23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change
    Net Liquidity0.20.60.4

    Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

    20-03-2026 23-03-2026 Change
    FII (US$ mn)(556.6)(811.7)(255.2)
       Debt38.0391.6353.7
       Equity(594.5)(1,203.4)(608.8)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)3,580.9(145.8)(3,726.7)
       Debt(7.9)(4,444.4)(4,436.4)
       Equity3,588.84,298.6709.8

    Oil prices rebounded following conflicting remarks from the US and Iran regarding peace talks.

    Table 7 – Commodities

    23-03-2026 24-03-2026 Change, %
    Brent crude99.9104.54.6
    Gold4,407.24,475.51.6
    Copper12,081.712,008.8(0.6)
    Zinc3,056.73,017.2(1.3)
    Aluminium3,199.03,260.51.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s).

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