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Global investors remained on edge as the situation in the Middle East remained fluid, especially since no truce had been reached so far. Given such mixed signals, crude prices surged by 7.8%. Separately, the US administration once again announced 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceutical imports while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium. This comes a year after the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, which had impacted global markets.
On the macro front, the US trade deficit widened by 4.9% to US$57.3 bn in Feb'26 from US$54.7 bn in Jan'26, led by strong imports (4.3%). On the labour market, weekly jobless claims slipped to 202k, signalling that the labour market remained steady as layoffs stayed lower. Moreover, according to the non-farm payroll report, over 178k jobs were added in Mar'26 and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
This week, investors will closely track US inflation, the earnings season, and RBI's first monetary policy decision for FY27.
Global indices closed mixed amid conflicting signals emerging from the West Asia conflict. Among the major indices, Nikkei surged the most. Investors will closely monitor the jobs report and inflation reading this week. Sensex is trading lower today in line with other Asian markets amidst fresh threats from the US.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Apart from markets in Japan and China, other markets remained open on 3 Apr 2026.
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY edged up following a better-than-expected jobs report, which curtailed expectations of Fed rate cuts. GBP and EUR declined by 0.2% each. However, INR is trading sharply stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 3 Apr 2026.
Barring the US, other major global bond markets were closed. The US 10Y yield rose by 4bps, tracking stronger labour market data including non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The resilience in the labour market has raised questions over the extent of Fed rate cuts this year. India's bond market remained closed, but it has opened lower today at 7.1% ahead of RBI's policy decision.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Apart from the US, other major global bond markets were closed on 3 Apr 2026.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 3 Apr 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 25 & 27 Mar 2026.
Oil prices rose amidst conflicting signs on the West Asia conflict.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Global commodity markets were shut on 3 Apr 2026.
As the situation in the Middle East continues to vacillate, investors remained focused on assessing its impact on global markets. According to news reports, the US shared a 45-day ceasefire proposal that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran reportedly rejected the proposal and submitted its own plan to mediators, seeking a permanent end to the war, reconstruction support, and the lifting of sanctions.
On the macro front, the US ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in Mar'26 from 56.1 in Feb'26, indicating a loss of momentum in the services sector. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, with the prices paid index rising to 70.7 from 63.0 in the previous month.
On the domestic front, the Government of India revised downward the base import prices for gold and silver, providing cost relief to the industry. The move is expected to support inventory management and boost demand.
Except for markets in China and Hong Kong, which remained closed, global equity markets ended higher. Japan and India recorded the strongest gains, supported by hopes of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. US markets also advanced moderately, led by gains in technology stocks. However, Sensex is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets, as investors await the US deadline for Iran.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring the EUR and GBP, other major global currencies ended broadly flat. The DXY remained steady as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East while weighing hopes of a possible ceasefire. INR also remained largely unchanged. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except for India and Japan, major global 10Y bond yields remained broadly steady. The US 10Y bond yield declined by 1bp on optimism surrounding a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. Japan's 10Y yield inched higher as elevated oil prices continued to pose inflationary risks. India's 10Y G-Sec yield declined by 9bps as investors expected RBI to remain on pause. However, it is trading marginally higher today at around 7.06%, tracking higher oil prices.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 Mar & 1 Apr 2026.
Oil prices edged up as the West Asia conflict deepened further.
In the latest developments surrounding the West Asia conflict, the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire under a new 10-point proposal put forward by Iran. The announcement came just two hours before the US deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Following these developments, investors are reassessing the outlook for global financial markets, with expectations of a rally in the global bond market. Crude oil prices have already fallen below the US$100/bbl mark, declining by 13.3%.
On the macro front, China's People's Bank of China (PBoC) extended its gold-buying streak for the 17th consecutive month. The country's gold holdings increased to 74.4 million troy ounces in Mar'26 from 74.2 million troy ounces in Feb'26.
On the domestic front, market participants remain focused on the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision. We expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate and stance unchanged. However, announcements related to liquidity support and measures for the INR are likely.
Global equity markets closed on a mixed note. FTSE and Hang Seng declined the most, while Indian markets posted notable gains. Stable currency conditions and expectations of policy continuity helped offset geopolitical concerns in India. Technology, realty, and metal stocks led the gains. Following the announcement of the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, Sensex and other Asian markets are trading higher today.
Barring the Japanese yen, which remained flat, other major global currencies ended stronger. The DXY softened and moved closer to the 99 mark following the ceasefire announcement. INR appreciated further, supported by RBI measures and lower crude oil prices. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Global 10Y bond yields closed mixed. The US 10Y yield declined by 4bps as markets responded to stable oil prices and a sharper-than-expected decline in durable goods orders. UK yields rose as investors reassessed the Bank of England's policy outlook. India's 10Y G-Sec yield remained unchanged. However, it is trading sharply lower today at around 6.92% following the announcement of the US-Iran ceasefire and the decline in crude oil prices.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 Apr & 2 Apr 2026.
Oil prices slipped following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Global investors welcomed renewed optimism after the US and Iran agreed to a truce, providing much-needed relief to financial markets. However, reports of possible violations of the agreement surfaced shortly after the announcement. Despite the ceasefire, concerns remain that supply chain disruptions and energy market imbalances may take time to normalize.
On the global macro front, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), emerging markets recorded their largest capital outflows since Mar'20, with outflows of US$70.3bn in Mar'26.
On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the policy repo rate and retained its neutral policy stance. Citing the ongoing conflict in West Asia and its potential impact, the RBI revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% and inflation forecast to 4.6%. As per the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the RBI expects average crude oil prices at US$85/bbl and the INR at 94 per US dollar during FY27.
Global equity markets rallied as the conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran improved investor sentiment. Among major indices, the Nikkei recorded the strongest gains. Indian markets also advanced sharply, led by auto and banking stocks. However, Sensex is trading lower today as concerns over the durability of the ceasefire resurfaced. Other Asian markets are trading mixed.
Global currencies strengthened, while the DXY declined to a near two-week low as investors welcomed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. GBP and JPY posted the strongest gains amid improving risk appetite. Supported by global cues and RBI's steady monetary policy, the INR appreciated by 0.5%. However, it is trading weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Global 10Y bond yields ended mostly lower. The US 10Y yield remained unchanged, while UK and German yields declined sharply as easing geopolitical tensions prompted investors to scale back expectations of further rate hikes. In India, the 10Y G-Sec yield fell by 15bps, supported by lower crude oil prices and the RBI's decision to keep policy rates unchanged. However, it is trading marginally higher today at around 6.94%.
Liquidity in the banking system improved further, with net surplus liquidity rising to Rs 4.6 tn on 08 Apr 2026 from Rs 4.0 tn in the previous session.
Oil prices dropped sharply following the announcement of the US-Iran ceasefire. However, amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty, prices have started to edge higher again.
On the global macro front, the US economy lost momentum in Q4CY25, with GDP growth slowing to 0.5% from 4.4% in Q3CY25. The slowdown was driven by weaker consumer spending, which was revised down to 1.9% as demand for goods and services moderated. A government shutdown also weighed on growth, with government spending and investment declining by 5.6%. Reflecting softer global demand, exports fell by 3.2%, marking the sharpest decline since CY23, while imports also contracted.
In the labour market, initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 to 219,000. Despite the increase, claims remained within the 200,000–250,000 range, indicating that labour market conditions remain broadly stable. Meanwhile, US PCE inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month in Feb'26 from 0.3% in Jan'26, while annual PCE inflation stood at 2.8%. Core PCE inflation eased marginally to 3.0% from 3.1%. In China, producer prices (PPI) increased by 0.5% after declining by 0.9% in Feb'26.
Except for US markets, major global equity indices ended lower as investors continued to monitor developments in West Asia. Among major markets, Sensex recorded the steepest decline, led by sharp losses in auto and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with gains across other Asian markets.
Except for the euro and the British pound, other major global currencies ended weaker or remained largely unchanged. The DXY declined to its lowest level since early Mar'25 amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. EUR and GBP strengthened as investors remained cautious over developments in the West Asia conflict. INR depreciated by 0.1% following the rebound in crude oil prices. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Except for the US, major global 10Y bond yields ended higher or remained broadly unchanged. The US 10Y yield declined by 2bps as increased expectations of a Fed rate cut boosted demand for Treasuries. The downward revision to Q4CY25 GDP also supported sentiment, although sticky PCE inflation for Feb'26 continued to warrant caution. In India, the 10Y G-Sec yield rose by 6bps following the rebound in crude oil prices and is trading higher today at around 6.97%.
Banking system liquidity remained stable, with net surplus liquidity unchanged at Rs 4.6 tn on 09 Apr 2026.
Oil prices rebounded as uncertainty persisted over the durability of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
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