Economic Weekly Wrap
17 Nov 2025 - 21 Nov 2025
-
17 November 2025
Equity markets witnessed sell off with Asian stocks falling the most on account of China’s weak economic data. DXY firmed up tracking comments of Fed officials. UK’s 10Y yield inched up sharply (~4-week high). This is on the wake of concerns over fiscal prudence amidst news reports of dropping income tax increases. On tariff front, US President has issued order to reduce tariff on key essential food items, to support demand. For India as well, there has been roll back of tariff for over 200 key agricultural products. On domestic front, RBI has come up with host of measures to support sectors hit by global tariff policies. It centres on extension in the time for realisation and repatriation of export value and buffer for shipment. Others include moratorium on term loans and recovery of interest on working capital loans and relaxation in repayment of export credit. This is likely to be positive for economy.
Except India, other global indices closed lower as expectations of Fed rate cut in Dec’25 continued to dwindle. Stocks in the US slid for the 2nd day. Weak macro data from China also impacted investor sentiments, with stocks in China and Hong Kong declining by over 1%. Sensex closed higher led by gains in FMCG stocks. However, it is trading higher today, Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,457 47,147 (0.7) S & P 500 6,737 6,734 (0.1) FTSE 9,808 9,698 (1.1) Nikkei 51,282 50,377 (1.8) Hang Seng 27,073 26,572 (1.8) Shanghai Comp 4,030 3,990 (1.0) Sensex 84,479 84,563 0.1 Nifty 25,879 25,910 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly lower. DXY rose by 0.1% tracking hawkish comments from Fed officials. GBP depreciated on reports that the UK government is unlikely to go ahead with income tax hikes. INR depreciated a tad. It is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1633 1.1621 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3192 1.3171 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 154.56 154.55 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.67 88.74 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0961 7.0993 0 DXY Index 99.16 99.30 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
UK’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace since 14 Oct 2025. This is following news reports of dented possibility of income tax increases in the upcoming budget. US 10Y yield inched up tracking comments of Atlanta Fed President over a cautious approach in its Dec’25 policy. India’s 10Y field rose a tad, tracking auction of long-end papers. It is currently trading at 6.45% today
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.12 4.15 3 UK 4.44 4.57 14 Germany 2.69 2.72 3 Japan 1.70 1.71 1 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.47 6.49 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.41 5.41 0 Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.55 0 Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.54 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.78 0 India OIS-2M 5.46 5.47 1 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.45 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.98 4.00 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.4 2.4 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
12-11-2025 13-11-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 184.3 275.7 91.4 Debt 236.5 44.3 (192.2) Equity (52.1) 231.4 283.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (163.7) (2,695.5) (2,531.8) Debt (5,014.5) (3,349.4) 1,665.1 Equity 4,850.8 653.9 (4,196.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 10th and 11th Nov 2025
Oil prices rose amidst reports of disruption in Russian oil exports.
Table 7 – Commodities
13-11-2025 14-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.0 64.4 2.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,171.5 4,084.1 (2.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,950.0 10,855.9 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,176.5 3,196.4 0.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,896.5 2,858.5 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
18 November 2025
Global markets traded cautiously. Equity markets witnessed broad based sell off tracking earnings of a major technology company and concerns surrounding Hong Kong real estate market. DXY firmed up as traders are reassessing Fed Reserve’s future policy move. On the other hand, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also backed for another rate cut in Dec’25 citing weak labour market conditions. Thus, signals on future trajectory of Fed fund rate remained conflicting. On macro front, house prices in UK softened. The third quarter preliminary QoQ GDP SA reading of Japan showed loss of momentum (-0.4% against est.: -0.6%), on account of moderation in private consumption demand. In India, merchandise trade deficit rose to a record high of US$ 76.1bn in Oct’25, driven by a sharp uptick in gold imports. Seasonal demand pull along with increase in international gold prices might have attributed to the same. Going forward we expect CAD to be ~1% of GDP.
Global stocks edged down. Investors remained cautious ahead of key US data releases. Dow Jones and S&P fell the most. In Japan, hopes of stimulus increased after a weak GDP report. Sensex rose by 0.5%, led by gains in banking stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,147 46,590 (1.2) S & P 500 6,734 6,672 (0.9) FTSE 9,698 9,675 (0.2) Nikkei 50,377 50,324 (0.1) Hang Seng 26,572 26,384 (0.7) Shanghai Comp 3,990 3,972 (0.5) Sensex 84,563 84,951 0.5 Nifty 25,910 26,013 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies depreciated. DXY edged up on risk-off sentiments. JPY depreciated the most as Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted. INR rose on the back of lower oil prices. It is however trading a tad weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1621 1.1592 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3171 1.3156 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 154.55 155.26 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.74 88.64 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0993 7.1077 (0.1) DXY Index 99.30 99.59 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
UK’s 10Y yield rose witnessed correction after a steep increase seen in the previous trading session. BoE policy maker’s comments on rising inflationary risks also capped 10Y yield to a certain extent. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up tracking Yen movement. India’s 10Y field rose a tad. It is trading flat today. The re-issue of Rs 30,000 crore securities (2030 & 2074) will be closely watched.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.15 4.14 (1) UK 4.57 4.54 (4) Germany 2.72 2.71 (1) Japan 1.71 1.74 3 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.49 6.50 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.41 5.37 (4) Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.53 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.54 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.80 2 India OIS-2M 5.47 5.46 (1) India OIS-9M 5.45 5.45 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.00 3.95 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 5 Nov 2025
Table 5 – Liquidity
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.4 1.9 (0.5) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
12-11-2025 13-11-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 184.3 275.7 91.4 Debt 236.5 44.3 (192.2) Equity (52.1) 231.4 283.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (163.7) (2,695.5) (2,531.8) Debt (5,014.5) (3,349.4) 1,665.1 Equity 4,850.8 653.9 (4,196.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Nov 2025
Oil prices softened amidst weak demand in lieu of US sanctions on Russia.
Table 7 – Commodities
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.4 64.2 (0.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,084.1 4,045.0 (1.0) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,855.9 10,745.9 (1.0) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,196.4 3,099.0 (3.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,858.5 2,813.5 (1.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
19 November 2025
Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure over stretched asset valuation surrounding AI spending. Further, concerns reignited over relations between China and Japan surrounding Taiwan Strait crisis. On macro front, US durable goods orders remained stable at 2.9% on a MoM SA basis in Aug’25. However, core capital goods orders softened to 0.4%. In Japan, core machinery orders picked up to 4.2% on a MoM basis. On policy front, Fed Vice Chair also advocated for a data dependent approach. BoE Chief Economist hinted at cautious approach citing economic shocks influencing price behaviours of consumers. On domestic front, news reports suggested that government is meeting with stakeholders, ahead of the Budget, for faster and smoother flows of FDIs and FIIs.
Global stocks continued to witness a broad-based sell-off. Stocks in the US declined for the fourth straight session ahead of key jobs report. Nikkei dipped by over 3% led by a sharp decline in tech stocks. Sensex declined by 0.3% as real estate and metal stocks dipped. It is however trading marginally higher today, while other Asian indices are trading mostly lower.
Table 1 – Stock markets
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,590 46,092 (1.1) S & P 500 6,672 6,617 (0.8) FTSE 9,675 9,552 (1.3) Nikkei 50,324 48,703 (3.2) Hang Seng 26,384 25,930 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,972 3,940 (0.8) Sensex 84,951 84,673 (0.3) Nifty 26,013 25,910 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies traded in narrow ranges as investors await major US data releases. DXY was broadly steady as Fed Vice Chair advocated a cautious approach to further rate cuts. GBP declined ahead of UK’s budget announcement. INR ended flat. It is however trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1592 1.1581 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3156 1.3145 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 155.26 155.51 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.64 88.61 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1077 7.1094 0 DXY Index 99.59 99.55 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield softened amidst risk off sentiments ahead of the labour market data. 10Y yield in UK got support from BoE Chief Economist’s comments on future trajectory of policy rate. Elsewhere 10Y yields remained rangebound. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad. It is trading at 6.48% today. All eyes remained on the SDL auction where States borrowed much less than the prescribed amount in the calendar.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.14 4.11 (3) UK 4.54 4.55 2 Germany 2.71 2.71 (1) Japan 1.74 1.75 1 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.50 6.49 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.41 5.37 (4) Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.53 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.54 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.80 2 India OIS-2M 5.47 5.46 (1) India OIS-9M 5.45 5.45 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.00 3.95 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.9 1.8 (0.1) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
14-11-2025 17-11-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (443.4) 293.9 737.3 Debt 81.8 (119.9) (201.7) Equity (525.2) 413.7 939.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (7,072.6) 2,256.8 9,329.4 Debt (8,282.9) (4,933.2) 3,349.7 Equity 1,210.3 7,190.0 5,979.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 13th and 14th Nov 2025
Oil prices rose amidst concerns over US sanctions on Russia.
Table 7 – Commodities
17-11-2025 18-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.2 64.9 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,045.0 4,067.2 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,745.9 10,684.2 (0.6) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,099.0 3,118.8 0.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,813.5 2,780.0 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
21 November 2025
Global markets monitored slew of dated macro releases in the US. Two-month payroll net revision fell down by -31K compared to -21K earlier, indicating softness in labour market condition. Unemployment rate firmed up to its highest in past 4-years at 4.4% in Sep’25. The more updated jobless claims data also showed that there has hardly been any improvement in 4-week moving average claims. Thus, decision on rates will be a crucial one. Elsewhere, CBI Trends orders in UK continued to drop speaking of moderation in manufacturing output. Germany’s PPI fell by -1.8%, YoY in Oct’25. Japan’s CPI remained stable at 3%, core inched up a tad. All eyes are on impact of ¥ 21.3tn stimulus measures announced by the government. On domestic front, weekly auctions will be watched for any cues on rates.
Markets in US and China ended in red, while they closed higher elsewhere. S&P500 fell the most sharply, and to its lowest since 10 Sep’25, driven by overvaluation and spending concerns in AI related sectors. Sensex climbed up with gains noted in capital goods, banking and auto stocks. However, tracking global cues, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.
Table 1 – Stock markets
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,139 45,752 (0.8) S & P 500 6,642 6,539 (1.6) FTSE 9,507 9,528 0.2 Nikkei 48,538 49,824 2.6 Hang Seng 25,831 25,836 0 Shanghai Comp 3,947 3,931 (0.4) Sensex 85,186 85,633 0.5 Nifty 26,053 26,192 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP and CNY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY also fell by (-) 0.1% as labour market strength remains unclear (rising payrolls in Sep’25 but uncertainty around Oct’25 print). GBP rose, even as possibility of a rate cut by BoE in Dec’25 increased. INR fell by (-) 0.1%, tracking global cues. However, it is trading much stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1538 1.1528 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3059 1.3073 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.16 157.47 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.59 88.71 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1140 7.1165 0 DXY Index 100.23 100.16 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace tracking broadly weaker jobs data. UK’s 10Y yield softened ahead of speeches of BoE officials. Sentiments also lingered over moderation in inflation. Japan’s 10Y yield firmed up tracking comments of FM over orderly movement of exchange rate. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is also trading at the same level today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.14 4.08 (5) UK 4.60 4.59 (2) Germany 2.71 2.72 1 Japan 1.77 1.82 5 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.49 6.49 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.38 5.34 (4) Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.55 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.55 5.55 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.79 0 India OIS-2M 5.44 5.45 1 India OIS-9M 5.43 5.44 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.94 3.91 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.7 1.6 (0.1) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
18-11-2025 19-11-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (90.2) 288.1 378.3 Debt (46.6) (77.5) (31.0) Equity (43.6) 365.7 409.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,599.6) 583.5 3,183.0 Debt (2,552.8) (2,745.8) (193.0) Equity (46.8) 3,329.3 3,376.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 17th and 18th Nov 2025
Oil prices fell, amidst news of possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Table 7 – Commodities
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.5 63.4 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,078.0 4,077.2 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,719.4 10,719.6 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,133.1 3,150.8 0.6 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,801.0 2,814.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
@2025 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved
Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities of any entity. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Bank of Baroda Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/ or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render Bank of Baroda Group liable in any manner whatsoever & Bank of Baroda Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time
Connect with Us
For further details about this publication, please contact:
Economics Research Department
Bank of Baroda
+91 22 6698 5794
chief.economist@bankofbaroda.bank.in
Popular Articles
Tag Clouds
Related Articles
-
Disclaimer
The contents of this article/infographic/picture/video are meant solely for information purposes and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. The contents are generic in nature and for informational purposes only. It is not a substitute for specific advice in your own circumstances. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. The information is subject to updation, completion, revision, verification and amendment and the same may change materially. The information is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Bank of Baroda or its affiliates to any licensing or registration requirements. Bank of Baroda shall not be responsible for any direct/indirect loss or liability incurred by the reader for taking any financial decisions based on the contents and information mentioned. Please consult your financial advisor before making any financial decision.
