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Equity markets witnessed sell off with Asian stocks falling the most on account of China’s weak economic data. DXY firmed up tracking comments of Fed officials. UK’s 10Y yield inched up sharply (~4-week high). This is on the wake of concerns over fiscal prudence amidst news reports of dropping income tax increases. On tariff front, US President has issued order to reduce tariff on key essential food items, to support demand. For India as well, there has been roll back of tariff for over 200 key agricultural products. On domestic front, RBI has come up with host of measures to support sectors hit by global tariff policies. It centres on extension in the time for realisation and repatriation of export value and buffer for shipment. Others include moratorium on term loans and recovery of interest on working capital loans and relaxation in repayment of export credit. This is likely to be positive for economy.
Except India, other global indices closed lower as expectations of Fed rate cut in Dec’25 continued to dwindle. Stocks in the US slid for the 2nd day. Weak macro data from China also impacted investor sentiments, with stocks in China and Hong Kong declining by over 1%. Sensex closed higher led by gains in FMCG stocks. However, it is trading higher today, Asian indices are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly lower. DXY rose by 0.1% tracking hawkish comments from Fed officials. GBP depreciated on reports that the UK government is unlikely to go ahead with income tax hikes. INR depreciated a tad. It is trading higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
UK’s 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace since 14 Oct 2025. This is following news reports of dented possibility of income tax increases in the upcoming budget. US 10Y yield inched up tracking comments of Atlanta Fed President over a cautious approach in its Dec’25 policy. India’s 10Y field rose a tad, tracking auction of long-end papers. It is currently trading at 6.45% today
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 10th and 11th Nov 2025
Oil prices rose amidst reports of disruption in Russian oil exports.
Global markets traded cautiously. Equity markets witnessed broad based sell off tracking earnings of a major technology company and concerns surrounding Hong Kong real estate market. DXY firmed up as traders are reassessing Fed Reserve’s future policy move. On the other hand, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also backed for another rate cut in Dec’25 citing weak labour market conditions. Thus, signals on future trajectory of Fed fund rate remained conflicting. On macro front, house prices in UK softened. The third quarter preliminary QoQ GDP SA reading of Japan showed loss of momentum (-0.4% against est.: -0.6%), on account of moderation in private consumption demand. In India, merchandise trade deficit rose to a record high of US$ 76.1bn in Oct’25, driven by a sharp uptick in gold imports. Seasonal demand pull along with increase in international gold prices might have attributed to the same. Going forward we expect CAD to be ~1% of GDP.
Global stocks edged down. Investors remained cautious ahead of key US data releases. Dow Jones and S&P fell the most. In Japan, hopes of stimulus increased after a weak GDP report. Sensex rose by 0.5%, led by gains in banking stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Except INR, other global currencies depreciated. DXY edged up on risk-off sentiments. JPY depreciated the most as Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted. INR rose on the back of lower oil prices. It is however trading a tad weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
UK’s 10Y yield rose witnessed correction after a steep increase seen in the previous trading session. BoE policy maker’s comments on rising inflationary risks also capped 10Y yield to a certain extent. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up tracking Yen movement. India’s 10Y field rose a tad. It is trading flat today. The re-issue of Rs 30,000 crore securities (2030 & 2074) will be closely watched.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 5 Nov 2025
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 12th and 13th Nov 2025
Oil prices softened amidst weak demand in lieu of US sanctions on Russia.
Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure over stretched asset valuation surrounding AI spending. Further, concerns reignited over relations between China and Japan surrounding Taiwan Strait crisis. On macro front, US durable goods orders remained stable at 2.9% on a MoM SA basis in Aug’25. However, core capital goods orders softened to 0.4%. In Japan, core machinery orders picked up to 4.2% on a MoM basis. On policy front, Fed Vice Chair also advocated for a data dependent approach. BoE Chief Economist hinted at cautious approach citing economic shocks influencing price behaviours of consumers. On domestic front, news reports suggested that government is meeting with stakeholders, ahead of the Budget, for faster and smoother flows of FDIs and FIIs.
Global stocks continued to witness a broad-based sell-off. Stocks in the US declined for the fourth straight session ahead of key jobs report. Nikkei dipped by over 3% led by a sharp decline in tech stocks. Sensex declined by 0.3% as real estate and metal stocks dipped. It is however trading marginally higher today, while other Asian indices are trading mostly lower.
Global currencies traded in narrow ranges as investors await major US data releases. DXY was broadly steady as Fed Vice Chair advocated a cautious approach to further rate cuts. GBP declined ahead of UK’s budget announcement. INR ended flat. It is however trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
US 10Y yield softened amidst risk off sentiments ahead of the labour market data. 10Y yield in UK got support from BoE Chief Economist’s comments on future trajectory of policy rate. Elsewhere 10Y yields remained rangebound. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad. It is trading at 6.48% today. All eyes remained on the SDL auction where States borrowed much less than the prescribed amount in the calendar.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 13th and 14th Nov 2025
Oil prices rose amidst concerns over US sanctions on Russia.
Global markets monitored slew of dated macro releases in the US. Two-month payroll net revision fell down by -31K compared to -21K earlier, indicating softness in labour market condition. Unemployment rate firmed up to its highest in past 4-years at 4.4% in Sep’25. The more updated jobless claims data also showed that there has hardly been any improvement in 4-week moving average claims. Thus, decision on rates will be a crucial one. Elsewhere, CBI Trends orders in UK continued to drop speaking of moderation in manufacturing output. Germany’s PPI fell by -1.8%, YoY in Oct’25. Japan’s CPI remained stable at 3%, core inched up a tad. All eyes are on impact of ¥ 21.3tn stimulus measures announced by the government. On domestic front, weekly auctions will be watched for any cues on rates.
Markets in US and China ended in red, while they closed higher elsewhere. S&P500 fell the most sharply, and to its lowest since 10 Sep’25, driven by overvaluation and spending concerns in AI related sectors. Sensex climbed up with gains noted in capital goods, banking and auto stocks. However, tracking global cues, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.
Barring GBP and CNY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY also fell by (-) 0.1% as labour market strength remains unclear (rising payrolls in Sep’25 but uncertainty around Oct’25 print). GBP rose, even as possibility of a rate cut by BoE in Dec’25 increased. INR fell by (-) 0.1%, tracking global cues. However, it is trading much stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
US 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace tracking broadly weaker jobs data. UK’s 10Y yield softened ahead of speeches of BoE officials. Sentiments also lingered over moderation in inflation. Japan’s 10Y yield firmed up tracking comments of FM over orderly movement of exchange rate. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is also trading at the same level today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 17th and 18th Nov 2025
Oil prices fell, amidst news of possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
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