Economic Weekly Wrap
10 Nov 2025 - 14 Nov 2025

Markets this week open with the news of Senate passing the bill to end the US government shutdown. This is seen as the first step to end the deadlock as the bill now goes to the house for passing before it can be signed by the President. Furloughed employees are expected to get reinstated, along with some of the other demands of Democrats being met. Separately, University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index noted a decline as it fell to 50.3 in Nov’25 (est.: 53) from 53.6 in Oct’25. 1Y inflation expectations also inched up (4.7% versus 4.6%). Elsewhere in China, producer prices declined at a slower pace in Oct’25 (-2.1%) versus (-) 2.3% in Sep’25, driven by holiday season demand. Retail inflation also inched up by 0.2%, coming out of deflation last month (-0.3%), supported by government measures to boost domestic consumption, and National holiday demand.

Barring US indices, other major indices ended lower. Markets in the US rebounded amidst optimism surrounding the potential end to the US government shutdown. Nikkei dropped with losses in transport & communication as well as paper & pulp sector. Sensex too slipped, led by sharp loss in IT related stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY retreated by 0.2% amidst weaker economic data (Michigan consumer sentiment index). CNY remained steady as investors monitored inflation data. INR closed flat. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except Asian bonds, 10Y yields elsewhere inched up. US 10Y yield rose a tad by 1bps as investors digest mixed news—weakening consumer sentiment and rising hopes of Senate deal to end government shutdown. In UK, expectations of rate cut by BoE in Dec’25, has helped lower the yields. India’s 10Y yield ended flat. Following global cues, it is currently trading tad higher at 6.52%.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 29 Oct and 30 Oct 2025

Oil prices rose amidst hopes of possible end of US government shutdown.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US Senate has passed the bill to end the longest US government shutdown so far, with a vote of 60-40, providing government the funding required till Jan’26. This bill will now go the House where Republicans have a majority. Investors now await release of official macro data to gauge Fed’s rate trajectory. Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of higher economic damage if government remains in shutdown. As a result, gold as a safe-haven asset continues to perform well and is currently trading near its 2-week high. Separately, Japan’s current account surplus rose to a record high of ¥17.51tn (+14.1% YoY) as imports declined and exports rose. Lower imports were on account of falling energy prices, while exports got support from demand of semiconductors by China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Global indices closed higher. Lifted by upbeat sentiments, US indices advanced on the possibility that the US government shutdown will end. Major gains were noted in technology and specifically AI related stocks. Hang Seng surged to a nearly 1-month high. Sensex too inched up with gains in capital good stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY index remained steady amidst the news of US shutdown nearing end and ahead of the key labour reports. Yen remained under pressure given weaker data (household spending lower than expected) and uncertainty around BoJ's policy outlook. INR closed flat. It is trading weaker today while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps as possible end of US government shutdown will result in release of official macro data, which in turn will help gauge Fed’s rate cut trajectory. In Japan, worries around the impact of fiscal stimulus on government balances kept investors on edge. India’s 10Y fell by 2bps, and is trading flat today, awaiting global cues

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 4 Nov and 6 Nov 2025

Oil prices rose, as end of US government shutdown will revive demand.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US President Donald Trump has recently re-assured that US and India may be nearing a trade deal. India expects that US tariffs will be lowered to 15-20% range from current 50% rate. Separately in the US, ADP employment data indicates that only 42k jobs were added in Oct’25, following 29k jobs lost in Sep’25. However, official estimates, covering a larger sample, are expected to show notable decline in employment in Oct’25. Elsewhere in Germany also the ZEW economic sentiment index showed decline in investor morale as the index fell to 38.5 in Nov’25 from 39.3 in Oct’25. Investors remain warry of the impact of fiscal stimulus on growth. In the UK, unemployment rate rose to 4-year high of 5% in Q3CY25, up from 4.8% in Q2. Average wage earnings growth also slowed to 4.8% in Sep’25 (3MMA basis) from 5% in Aug’25. This has revived hopes of a rate cut by BoE in Dec’25

Barring Nikkei and Shanghai Comp, other indices closed higher. US indices continued the upward momentum amidst increased expectations that the US government shutdown will end soon. FTSE rose to a record high as weakness in labour market fuelled rate cut expectation. Sensex advanced with gains in IT related stocks. It is trading higher today; Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY index retreated with investors turning their focus on labour reports. GBP remained under pressure as job market deteriorated further. INR strengthened despite higher oil prices. However, it is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields ended lower/flat. US 10Y yield remained unchanged, while sharp decline was seen in UK 10Y yield (-7bps). Unemployment rate in UK has hit 4-year high in Q3CY25, raising probability of a rate cut by BoE in Dec’25. Following global cues, India’s 10Y was also down by 2bps. However, it is trading a tad higher today, at 6.49%

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 6 Nov and 7 Nov 2025

Oil prices rose, noting the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil exporters.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US President Donald Trump has signed the funding bill, effectively ending the 43- day long government shutdown. Investors now await the release of official macro data. Shutdown is expected to have impacted labour market, thus making a stronger case for 25bps rate cut by Fed in Dec’25. Separately, in Japan, new PM has signalled that it would be beneficial for the economy if policy rates continue to remain low for some time. Japan’s PPI (MoM) rose by 0.4% (est.: 0.3%) in Oct’25, up from 0.3% in the month before, making it difficult for BoJ to keep rates on hold. Elsewhere in Australia, RBA is debating if its policy is restrictive enough as inflation in Q3 remains elevated at 2.6% and unemployment rate is coming down. Domestically, CPI eased to 0.3% in Oct’25 from 1.4% in Sep’25, helped by lower food inflation.

Barring Shanghai Comp, other indices closed higher. S&P 500 gained with investors hoping for another rate cut and economic activity picking up amidst the news of government reopening. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng soared to a 1-month high. Sensex edged up with strong gains in consumer durable and IT related stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed mixed. DXY index strengthened amidst news of a possible political resolution on the shutdown. JPY remained under pressure nearing the 155-mark with the possibility of intervention and concerns around Japan’s fiscal stance. INR depreciated given lower oil prices. It is trading weaker today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields ended lower/flat. US 10Y fell by 5bps, as investors await release of official macro data after the end of government shutdown. Germany’s slowing inflation in Oct’25 revived hopes that ECB may cut rates twice more in CY26. India’s 10Y was also down by 2bps, supported by declining oil prices. However, it is trading a tad higher today, at 6.47%

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 7 Nov and 10 Nov 2025

Oil prices fell, tracking news of rising crude inventories in the US and OPEC+ surplus estimates for next year.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

As US government shutdown ends, investors are hopeful that economic activity will return to normal in course of time. They also await CPI and labour market data to gauge the probability of Dec’25 rate cut by Fed (current at 49.6% as per CME FedWatchTool). Separately in the UK, GDP growth (QoQ basis) remains muted as it slowed to 0.1% in Q3CY25 (est.: 0.2%), from 0.3% in Q2. This was led by (-) 2% decline in manufacturing. Government spending and GCF also acted as a drag. However, household expenditure and exports picked up pace. Elsewhere in China, industrial output moderated to 1-yr low of 4.9% in Oct’25 (est.: 5.5%; 6.5% in Sep’25), and retail sales growth eased to 2.9% versus 3% last month. FAI also continues to contract at a steeper pace of (-) 1.7% between Jan-Oct’25 versus (-) 0.5% between Jan-Sep’25.

Global indices closed mixed. US indices tumbled as hopes of next Fed rate cut started to fade amidst hawkish commentary by Fed officials. FTSE too slipped after weaker than expected Q3CY25 GDP growth (0.1% from 0.3% in Q2). Asian indices inched up. Sensex closed flat amidst volatility. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR (flat), other global currencies closed higher against the dollar. DXY index weakened amidst uncertainly pertaining to the Fed’s rate action. EUR and GBP gained the most. INR remained steady amidst ongoing RBI’s intervention. However, it is trading weaker today while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except China, other global 10Y yields ended higher. US 10Y rose by 5bps, tracking hawkish commentary from Fed officials regarding Dec’25 rate cut. Germany’s yield also rose by 5bps. Investors remain uncertain about the timing and size of the fiscal stimulus package. India’s 10Y was up by 1bps, tracking oil prices. Following global cues, it is trading even higher today at 6.48%.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual funds data as of 7 Nov and 10 Nov 2025

Oil prices rose a tad, supported by re-opening of the US government.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research