Economic Weekly Wrap
24 Nov 2025 - 28 Nov 2025
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24 November 2025
Global markets continue to monitor signals regarding Fed’s rate trajectory in Dec’25. Recently New York Fed President voiced his support for further rate cut. University of Michigan’s consumer survey shows decline in sentiment as the index fell to 51 in Nov’25 from 53.6 in Oct’25, dragged by dip in current situation index. Separately, Markit flash manufacturing PMIs show that activity hit 4-month low in Nov’25 (51.9 versus 52.5). Elsewhere in Eurozone, activity contracted further at a sharper pace. In contrast in the UK, manufacturing activity expanded as the index jumped to 14- month high of 50.2 from 49.7. However, retail sales data showed a slump in Oct’25 (- 1.1% MoM)—a first since May’25, possibly due to delay in purchases ahead of beginning of festive discount season. Domestically, manufacturing PMI eased a tad (57.4 versus 59.2), while services activity picked up momentum (59.5 versus 58.9).
Except US, stocks elsewhere ended in red. US indices benefitted from comments from New York Fed President. In Asia, concerns over AI weighed on tech stocks. Stocks in China, Hong Kong and Japan lost over 2% each. Sensex also dipped by 0.5% tracking losses in metal and real estate sectors. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.
Table 1 – Stock markets
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,752 46,245 1.1 S & P 500 6,539 6,603 1.0 FTSE 9,528 9,540 0.1 Nikkei 49,824 48,626 (2.4) Hang Seng 25,836 25,220 (2.4) Shanghai Comp 3,931 3,835 (2.4) Sensex 85,633 85,232 (0.5) Nifty 26,192 26,068 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and EUR, other global currencies ended stronger. JPY rose as the government voiced its support for the currency. INR fell by 0.8% to a record low amidst higher dollar demand from importers. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1528 1.1513 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3073 1.3099 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 157.47 156.41 0.7 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.71 89.41 (0.8) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1165 7.1052 0.2 DXY Index 100.16 100.18 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China and India, other global 10Y yields declined. Investors in the US and UK are expecting respective central banks to deliver a rate cut, given slowing economic growth. In Japan, markets corrected following a surge, due to fiscal package news. India’s 10Y yield inched up by 3bps, tracking weekly government auction. It is trading further higher today at 6.56% (06.33 GS 2035).
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.08 4.06 (2) UK 4.59 4.55 (4) Germany 2.72 2.70 (1) Japan 1.82 1.78 (5) China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.49 6.52 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.34 5.35 1 Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.55 0 Tbill-364 days 5.55 5.55 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.79 5.80 1 India OIS-2M 5.45 5.48 2 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.45 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.91 3.91 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.6 1.5 (0.1) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
19-11-2025 20-11-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 288.1 89.7 (198.5) Debt (77.5) 38.9 116.5 Equity 365.7 50.7 (314.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,331.9) (1,041.4) 3,290.5 Debt (4,379.6) (1,151.5) 3,228.1 Equity 47.7 110.1 62.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Oil prices continue to fall, as there remains oversupply amidst tepid demand.
Table 7 – Commodities
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.4 62.6 (1.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,077.2 4,065.1 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,719.6 10,778.6 0.5 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,150.8 3,124.1 (0.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,814.0 2,786.0 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 November 2025
Global markets got a lift as US Fed Governor Waller echoed the sentiments of New York Fed President, indicating that there remains room for a rate cut by Fed in Dec’25. He argued that economic growth is showing signs of slowdown. Apart from flash Markit manufacturing PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index also suggests weakness in the sector (index at -10.4 in Nov’25 versus -5 in Oct’25). Separately in Germany as well, business sentiment continues to remain subdued. The Ifo headline index fell to 88.1 in Nov’25 (est.: 88.5) from 88.4 in the previous month, mainly dragged by the expectations index (90.6 versus 91.6). Slower movement on government spending front is making investors jittery. Domestically, central bank intervention has helped Rupee recover from its all-time low of 89.41/$.
Equity indices in the US firmed up amidst renewed hopes of rate cut by Fed in Dec’25 with probability of 80.9% for the same compared to previous week’s 42% (CME Fed watch). Asian stocks remained mixed, tracking dialogues between US, China and Japan. Sensex moderated led by real estate stocks. It is trading even lower today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,245 46,448 0.4 S & P 500 6,603 6,705 1.5 FTSE 9,540 9,535 (0.1) Nikkei 49,824 48,626 (2.4) Hang Seng 25,220 25,717 2.0 Shanghai Comp 3,835 3,837 0 Sensex 85,232 84,901 (0.4) Nifty 26,068 25,960 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Global currencies ended mixed. INR and EUR gained the most, while DXY ended flat. Investors continue to monitor statements of Fed officials signalling possibility of rate cut in Dec’25. INR rose by 0.2%, amidst intervention by RBI. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1513 1.1521 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3099 1.3105 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.41 156.89 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.41 89.24 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1052 7.1031 0 DXY Index 100.18 100.14 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Global yields softened as rate cut expectations by Fed build up following weaker labour market data. Recent commentaries by Fed officials’ also spoke of the same. US 10Y yield fell by 4bps. India’s 10Y yield also softened as markets are forming expectations of a possibility of rate cut by RBI. It is trading lower at 6.46% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.06 4.02 (4) UK 4.55 4.54 (1) Germany 2.70 2.69 (1) Japan 1.82 1.78 (5) China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.52 6.48 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Table 4 – Short term rates
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.35 5.34 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.56 1 Tbill-364 days 5.55 5.56 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.80 5.79 (2) India OIS-2M 5.48 5.43 (4) India OIS-9M 5.45 5.43 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.91 3.93 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.5 1.3 (0.2) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
20-11-2025 21-11-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 89.7 (58.1) (147.8) Debt 38.9 124.3 85.3 Equity 50.7 (182.4) (233.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,331.9) (1,041.4) 3,290.5 Debt (4,379.6) (1,151.5) 3,228.1 Equity 47.7 110.1 62.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 and 20 Nov 2025
Oil prices rebounded, tracking rise in Fed rate cut bets and declining confidence around Russia-Ukraine pace.
Table 7 – Commodities
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.6 63.4 1.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,065.1 4,136.3 1.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,778.6 10,797.9 0.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,124.1 3,140.2 0.5 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,786.0 2,812.0 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 November 2025
Major macro data from the US signals slowdown in the economy. ADP employment report shows that private firms recorded an average decline 13,500 jobs/week, over the last 4 -weeks. Official data remains unavailable for Oct-mid Nov’25. On the consumption front, Conference Board consumer confidence index declined to 88.7 in Nov’25 from 95.5 in Oct’25, dragged by 8.6 points decline in expectations index. Tariffs, government shutdown and jobs weighed on the sentiment. Retail sales data for Sep’25 shows slowdown in momentum (0.2% versus 0.6% in Aug’25). This, along with impact of government shutdown is expected to weigh in on Q3 GDP. However, Q4 may get a boost from revival in real estate activity. US pending home sales rose by 1.9% in Oct’25 following 0.1% increase in Sep’25, amidst hopes of lower rates. In the UK, all eyes will be on budget presentation due today
Except India, stocks elsewhere ended in green. US indices inched up on increased bets of a rate cut amidst weakness in macro indicators. Positive comments from the US President on US-China relations lifted Asian indices. Sensex ended in red as consumer durables and oil and gas stocks declined. It is however trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.
Table 1 – Stock markets
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,448 47,112 1.4 S & P 500 6,705 6,766 0.9 FTSE 9,535 9,610 0.8 Nikkei 48,626 48,660 0.1 Hang Seng 25,717 25,895 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,837 3,870 0.9 Sensex 84,901 84,587 (0.4) Nifty 25,960 25,885 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Global currencies appreciated as the dollar lost ground. Weak macro data from the US has reinforced views of a Fed rate cut in Dec’25, which is weighing on the dollar. Despite positive global cues, INR ended broadly flat. It is trading marginally stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1521 1.1570 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3105 1.3166 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.89 156.05 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.24 89.22 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1031 7.0846 0.3 DXY Index 100.14 99.66 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Except Japan and China, global 10Y yields eased elsewhere. UK and US 10Y yields fell the most. Weak macro data from the US strengthened the case for Fed rate cut in Dec’25. In the UK, investor demand remains steady ahead of the budget presentation. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps, tracking global cues. The 06.33 GS 2035 yield is trading at 6.50% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.02 4.00 (3) UK 4.54 4.49 (4) Germany 2.69 2.67 (2) Japan 1.78 1.81 3 China 1.81 1.82 0 India 6.48 6.46 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025
Table 4 – Short term rates
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.34 5.36 2 Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.53 (3) Tbill-364 days 5.56 5.55 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.79 5.78 (1) India OIS-2M 5.43 5.42 (1) India OIS-9M 5.43 5.40 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.93 3.96 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.3 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
21-11-2025 24-11-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (58.1) (582.4) (524.3) Debt 124.3 (150.7) (274.9) Equity (182.4) (431.8) (249.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,331.9) (1,041.4) 3,290.5 Debt (4,379.6) (1,151.5) 3,228.1 Equity 47.7 110.1 62.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 and 20 Nov 2025
Oil prices fell, tracking some progress on Ukraine-Russia peace deal front.
Table 7 – Commodities
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.4 62.5 (1.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,136.3 4,130.7 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,797.9 10,827.5 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,140.2 3,113.8 (0.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,812.0 2,800.5 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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27 November 2025
US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 22 Nov 2025 fell by 6k from the previous week to 216k. However, continuing jobless claims (4-week average) remain broadly steady at 1.96mn. Weakness in labour market is fuelling hopes of a Fed rate cut next month. Separately, in the UK, government in its Autumn Budget announced tax hikes along the lines of expectations. This will raise the tax burden to 38.3% of GDP by 2030-31 (highest on record). Measures were also announced for start-ups and job growth. Latest projections indicate that economy is expected to perform better this year (1.5% GDP for CY25 versus 1% estimated earlier). Domestically, Cabinet has approved Rs 7,280 for promoting manufacturing/refining/processing of rare earth metals in the country. Additionally, news of Commonwealth Games 2030 to be hosted in Ahmedabad will also deliver further boost to infrastructure spending and will support growth.
Except Shanghai Comp, other indices closed higher. US indices edged up further amidst growing expectations of a rate cut. Shanghai Comp was down amidst concerns related to the real estate sector. Sensex rebounded with gains in metal and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today in line with Asian indices
Table 1 – Stock markets
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,112 47,427 0.7 S & P 500 6,766 6,813 0.7 FTSE 9,610 9,692 0.9 Nikkei 48,660 49,559 1.8 Hang Seng 25,895 25,928 0.1 Shanghai Comp 3,870 3,864 (0.2) Sensex 84,587 85,610 1.2 Nifty 25,885 26,205 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY and INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY weakened as investors monitored mixed macro data from the US and dovish commentary by officials. INR depreciated given higher oil prices. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1570 1.1595 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3166 1.3241 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.05 156.47 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.22 89.27 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0846 7.0761 0.1 DXY Index 99.66 99.60 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US treasury yield ended flat as investors digested the news of steadiness in continuing jobless claims. In the UK, investors lauded government’s fiscal budget announcements, leading to 7bps decline in 10Y yield. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 1bps. The 06.33 GS 2035 yield is trading at 6.49% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.00 3.99 0 UK 4.49 4.42 (7) Germany 2.67 2.67 0 Japan 1.81 1.81 0 China 1.82 1.84 2 India 6.46 6.45 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.36 5.35 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.53 5.51 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.55 5.52 (3) G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.77 0 India OIS-2M 5.42 5.40 (2) India OIS-9M 5.40 5.40 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.96 4.01 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.1 (0.2) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
24-11-2025 25-11-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (582.4) (60.0) 522.5 Debt (150.7) (169.2) (18.5) Equity (431.8) 109.2 541.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,331.9) (1,041.4) 3,290.5 Debt (4,379.6) (1,151.5) 3,228.1 Equity 47.7 110.1 62.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 and 20 Nov 2025
Oil prices rose as possible rate cut by Fed has raised hopes of demand revival.
Table 7 – Commodities
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.5 63.1 1.0 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,130.7 4,162.2 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,827.5 10,983.8 1.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,113.8 3,219.9 3.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,800.5 2,861.0 2.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 November 2025
US Fed’s Beige Book signals that economic conditions continue to remain subdued so far. It noted that nearly half the 12 districts surveyed reported weakness in labour market and declining consumer spending. This report has further reinforced hopes that the central bank will be lowering rates by 25bps in its next meeting (~85% chance as per CME FedWatchTool). Separately in the UK, investors continue to digest announcements made in the Autumn Budget. The DMO has revised the government borrowing program by £4.6bn to £303.7bn—second highest on record. Maturity bucket shows shift towards short- and medium-term securities and away from long dated papers. In China, Industrial profits rose by 1.9% in Oct’25 (CYTD basis) slowing from 3.2% rise in Sep’25, dragged decline in profits seen in mining and manufacturing sector, amidst ongoing trade tensions with the US.
Barring FTSE and Nifty, other global indices closed higher as investors priced in rate cut possibility by Fed. Post the announcement of highly anticipated budget by UK's finance minister, FTSE closed flat. Sensex inched up with marginal gains in banking stocks. It is trading higher today ahead of the release of Q2GDP print, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,112 47,427 0.7 S & P 500 6,766 6,813 0.7 FTSE 9,692 9,694 0 Nikkei 49,559 50,167 1.2 Hang Seng 25,928 25,946 0.1 Shanghai Comp 3,864 3,875 0.3 Sensex 85,610 85,720 0.1 Nifty 26,205 26,216 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025
Global currencies closed flat. DXY remained under pressure amidst dovish signals and weaker macro data (Fed Beige Book). Yen strengthened as investors closely monitored a possible intervention. INR ended up flat. It is trading weaker today while other currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1595 1.1596 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3241 1.3240 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.47 156.31 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.27 89.31 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0761 7.0795 0 DXY Index 99.60 99.54 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025
Except Japan (lower) and US (closed), other global 10Y yields inched up. Yields in the UK rose the most as investors noted upward revision to government’s borrowing program for 2025/26. Yield in Japan was impacted by less hawkish tone of a BoJ Board member. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps, tracking rise in oil prices. The 06.33 GS 2035 yield is trading at 6.51% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change, bps US 4.00 3.99 0 UK 4.42 4.45 3 Germany 2.67 2.68 1 Japan 1.81 1.80 (1) China 1.84 1.85 1 India 6.45 6.46 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025
Table 4 – Short term rates
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.35 5.34 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.51 5.50 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.52 5.52 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.77 5.78 1 India OIS-2M 5.40 5.40 0 India OIS-9M 5.40 5.41 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.96 4.01 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025
Table 5 – Liquidity
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.1 1.3 0.2 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
25-11-2025 26-11-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (60.0) 664.7 724.7 Debt (169.2) 102.3 271.5 Equity 109.2 562.4 453.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,771.8 (9,228.5) (11,000.3) Debt (964.3) (7,183.9) (6,219.6) Equity 2,736.1 (2,044.7) (4,780.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 and 25 Nov 2025
Oil prices rose, amidst hopes of OPEC+ leaving output unchanged in Q1CY26.
Table 7 – Commodities
26-11-2025 27-11-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.1 63.3 0.3 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,162.2 4,157.6 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,983.8 10,956.1 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,219.9 3,180.4 (1.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,861.0 2,828.5 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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