Economic Weekly Wrap
08 Dec 2025 - 12 Dec 2025
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08 December 2025
In China, trade surplus rose to US$ 111.7 bn in Nov’25 much higher than anticipated and from US$ 90.1bn in the previous month. Exports advanced by 5.9% (-1.1% in Oct’25) and imports inched up by 1.9% (1% in Oct’25) for the same period. In Japan, Q3 GDP print was revised downwards (from -1.8%) as it contracted by (-) 2.3% at an annualized pace. Additionally, real wages were down for the 10th straight month at 0.7% in Oct’25 from 1.3% in Sep’25. In India, RBI’s MPC delivered a unanimous rate cut of 25bps, while retaining the stance at neutral. In order to inject liquidity, RBI also announced OMO auctions and US/INR buy sell swap, which is expected to infuse over Rs 1.45 lakh crore of liquidity in the system. This week, the spotlight will be on the Fed policy decision and guidance on rate trajectory.
Barring FTSE and Nikkei, other global indices closed higher. US stocks edged up ahead of the upcoming Fed rate decision. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were the biggest gainers. Sensex rose with gains in banking and IT related stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,851 47,955 0.2 S & P 500 6,857 6,870 0.2 FTSE 9,711 9,667 (0.5) Nikkei 51,028 50,492 (1.1) Hang Seng 25,936 26,085 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,876 3,903 0.7 Sensex 85,265 85,712 0.5 Nifty 26,034 26,186 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY (lower), other global currencies closed flat against the dollar. DXY also remained steady. Yen declined, tracking weak GDP data for Q3CY25, as it dims prospects of rate hike by BoJ. In the US, investors await future rate guidance for CY26. INR remained flat; however, it has breached the 90/$ mark again today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1644 1.1642 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3327 1.3328 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 155.10 155.33 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.98 89.99 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0719 7.0711 0 DXY Index 98.99 98.99 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring China and India (lower), 10Y global yields rose elsewhere. Yields in the US and UK rose the most by 4bps. Investors overlooked cooling PCE inflation data for Sep’25 and drop in jobless claims due to thanksgiving holidays. India’s 10Y yield declined by 2bps, as investors assessed RBI’s monetary policy decisions. It is trading flat today, amidst declining oil prices.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change, bps US 4.10 4.14 4 UK 4.44 4.48 4 Germany 2.77 2.80 3 Japan 1.94 1.95 1 China 1.86 1.83 (2) India 6.51 6.49 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.34 5.22 (12) Tbill-182 days 5.50 5.45 (5) Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.44 (9) G-Sec 2Y 5.82 5.76 (6) India OIS-2M 5.42 5.33 (9) India OIS-9M 5.45 5.39 (6) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.95 3.92 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.7 2.3 (0.4) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
03-12-2025 04-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (601.9) (122.3) 479.6 Debt (75.5) (266.6) (191.1) Equity (526.5) 144.3 670.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (3,757.9) 2,273.7 6,031.6 Debt (3,189.2) 709.9 3,899.1 Equity (568.7) 1,563.8 2,132.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 02 Dec and 03 Dec 2025
Oil prices rose, as tensions between Ukraine-Russia escalate.
Table 7 – Commodities
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.3 63.8 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,207.6 4,197.8 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 11,500.4 11,643.6 1.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,333.2 3,261.0 (2.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,904.0 2,897.5 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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09 December 2025
In Germany, industrial production data surprised positively as it accelerated by 1.8% in Oct’25 on a MoM basis from 1.1% (downwardly revised) in Sep’25. Given the industrial production has been increasing over the two-consecutive months, there are early signals of industrial weakness bottoming out. It has been witnessing cyclical headwinds in the form of tariffs, along with structural challenges such as geopolitical movements and energy prices. On the tariff front, there are news reports that US might be considering imposing new tariffs on rice imports from India even as the two nations are currently engaged in trade talks. Analyst will keep their focus towards the upcoming Fed rate decision wherein 25bps rate cut has been priced in (89%), however there is uncertainty pertaining to the pace of rate cuts in CY26.
Global equity indices closed mixed. US stocks started the week on a much sombre note, with investors turning their focus towards tech stocks and their valuations. Hang Seng tumbled with sell off noted in ‘new consumption’ stocks, followed by banking and gold stocks. Sensex too closed lower with broad based losses across sectors. It is trading lower today; Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,955 47,739 (0.4) S & P 500 6,870 6,847 (0.3) FTSE 9,667 9,645 (0.2) Nikkei 50,492 50,582 0.2 Hang Seng 26,085 25,765 (1.2) Shanghai Comp 3,903 3,924 0.5 Sensex 85,712 85,103 (0.7) Nifty 26,186 25,961 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies largely closed flat/lower. JPY fell the most, following news of earthquake striking Northeast Japan. DXY rose a tad by 0.1%, as investors see minimal chance of rate cut in Fed’s Jan’26 meeting. INR fell by 0.1% and remained above the 90/$ mark. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1642 1.1637 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3328 1.3322 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 155.33 155.92 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.99 90.09 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0711 7.0720 0 DXY Index 98.99 99.09 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields inched up. Yields in Germany (6bps) and UK (5bps) rose the most. US 10Y yield was also up by 3bps, as investors brace for a hawkish cut tomorrow and a highly uncertain Fed’s rate trajectory in. Better than expected industrial production data in Germany boosted investor morale. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, following global cues. It is trading further higher today at 6.55%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change, bps US 4.14 4.16 3 UK 4.48 4.53 5 Germany 2.80 2.86 6 Japan 1.95 1.98 3 China 1.83 1.84 1 India 6.49 6.53 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.22 5.25 3 Tbill-182 days 5.45 5.42 (3) Tbill-364 days 5.44 5.46 2 G-Sec 2Y 5.76 5.77 1 India OIS-2M 5.33 5.34 1 India OIS-9M 5.39 5.42 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.92 3.93 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.3 1.5 (0.8) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
04-12-2025 05-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (122.3) (183.2) (60.9) Debt (266.6) (181.3) 85.3 Equity 144.3 (1.8) (146.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,273.7 (3,757.9) (6,031.6) Debt 709.9 (3,189.2) (3,899.1) Equity 1,563.8 (568.7) (2,132.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 03 Dec and 04 Dec 2025
Oil prices fell, as Iraq restored production at one of its oilfields (~0.5% global oil supply).
Table 7 – Commodities
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.8 62.5 (2.0) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,197.8 4,190.7 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 11,643.6 11,643.7 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,261.0 3,287.7 0.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,897.5 2,888.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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10 December 2025
In the US, job openings rose to a 5-month high to 7.68 mn in Oct’25 from 7.66mn in Sep’25. This was led by retail, healthcare and wholesale sector. However, the number of layoffs in Oct’25 rose to 1.85 mn (highest since 2023) with concentration noted in accommodation and food services sector. The rate was up by 1.2% against 1.1% in Sep’25. The job vacancies remained steady at 4.6%, hiring dropped down to 5.2 mn in Oct’25 (from 5.4 mn in Sep’25). Separately, in China, CPI rose to a 21- month high to 0.7% in Nov’25 from 0.2% in Oct’25. This was led by surge in food inflation at 0.2% with a spike in vegetables prices (14.5% in Nov’25). On the other hand, pork prices remained in the deflationary zone (-15%) and are expected to see a turnaround next year. Core inflation was steady at 1.2% for the same period. PPI inflation continued to be in the negative zone at (-) 2.2% for 38th month in a row.
Barring Nikkei (higher) and FTSE (flat), other global equity indices closed lower. US stocks slipped further as investors expecting hawkish commentary by Fed even as 25bps rate cut has been priced in. Sensex was down with losses in auto, media and IT related stocks. However, it is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading lower.
Table 1 – Stock markets
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,739 47,560 (0.4) S & P 500 6,847 6,841 (0.1) FTSE 9,645 9,642 0 Nikkei 50,582 50,655 0.1 Hang Seng 25,765 25,434 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,924 3,910 (0.4) Sensex 85,103 84,666 (0.5) Nifty 25,961 25,840 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies fell. JPY fell the most by 0.6%. DXY rose a tad further by 0.1%, as investors remain in a risk-averse mood ahead of Fed commentary. Better than expected JOLTS data also helped US$. INR rose by 0.2%, amidst news of dollar sales by exporters and foreign fund inflows. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1637 1.1627 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3322 1.3297 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 155.92 156.88 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 90.09 89.89 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0720 7.0636 0.1 DXY Index 99.09 99.22 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Yields in Europe and Japan retreated, while they inched up in US and India. US 10Y yield was up by 2bps as investors expect Fed to present a window of 1 rate cut in CY26 amidst a cautious economic outlook. India’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps, as investors expect no more rate cuts from RBI. However, it is trading a tad lower today at 6.57%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change, bps US 4.16 4.19 2 UK 4.53 4.51 (2) Germany 2.86 2.85 (1) Japan 1.98 1.97 (1) China 1.84 1.84 0 India 6.53 6.59 6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.25 5.25 0 Tbill-182 days 5.42 5.43 1 Tbill-364 days 5.46 5.47 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.77 5.82 5 India OIS-2M 5.34 5.34 0 India OIS-9M 5.42 5.43 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.93 3.95 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.5 1.8 0.3 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
05-12-2025 08-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (183.2) (203.4) (20.2) Debt (181.3) (193.8) (12.4) Equity (1.8) (9.7) (7.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,907.5) 1,985.2 3,892.7 Debt (3,045.8) (635.7) 2,410.0 Equity 1,138.3 2,620.9 1,482.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 05 Dec and 08 Dec 2025
Oil prices fell, as investors tracked the end of Ukraine war.
Table 7 – Commodities
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.5 61.9 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,190.7 4,208.2 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 11,643.7 11,487.0 (1.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,287.7 3,253.0 (1.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,888.0 2,856.5 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 December 2025
In the US, in line with expectations, FOMC trimmed its key borrowing rate by quarter of percentage point(3rd reduction this year) bringing the rates in the range of 3.5- 3.75%. The decision was taken with a vote of 9-3, with Fed Chair calling it a ‘close call’. Members called it a difficult decisions since some members noted signs of weakness in the labour market and others noted there has been too much off easing and this could adversely impact inflation. Additionally, Fed also announced resumption of buying treasury securities, with a purchase of US$ 40bn purchase on Friday itself. Notably, as per the dot plot projections, there is possibility of another rate cut in 2026. Even in CY27, one more rate cut is expected with terminal rate at 3.1% and no change in CY28. GDP and inflation projection has been revised to 2.3% (from 1.8%) and 2.4% (from 2.6%) respectively for CY26.
Global equity indices closed mixed. US stocks edged up as investors monitored 25bps rate cut by Fed and dovish signals. Hang Seng inched up as investor tracked inflation data.Sensex closed lower with losses in consumer durable and capital good stocks.It is trading lower today; Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,560 48,058 1.0 S & P 500 6,841 6,887 0.7 FTSE 9,642 9,656 0.1 Nikkei 50,655 50,603 (0.1) Hang Seng 25,434 25,541 0.4 Shanghai Comp 3,910 3,900 (0.2) Sensex 84,666 84,391 (0.3) Nifty 25,840 25,758 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies rose. GBP rose the most by 0.65%. DXY fell by 0.4%, tracking rate cut announcement by US Fed and Dot Plot revealing high degree of uncertainty regarding the future rate trajectory. INR fell by 0.1%, tracking decline in equity markets. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Table 2 – Currencies
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1627 1.1695 0.6 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3297 1.3383 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.88 156.02 0.6 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.89 89.98 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0636 7.0680 (0.1) DXY Index 99.22 98.79 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 4bps, as Fed announced its 3rd consecutive rate cut and $40bn treasury bill purchase program. Buying is expected to continue in the short-term to take some pressure off the overnight rates. India’s 10Y yield rose by another 4bps. News reports indicate sell-off by foreign investors in FAR securities. However, it is trading lower today at 6.59%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change, bps US 4.19 4.15 (4) UK 4.51 4.51 0 Germany 2.85 2.85 0 Japan 1.97 1.96 (1) China 1.84 1.84 0 India 6.59 6.63 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.25 5.26 1 Tbill-182 days 5.43 5.47 4 Tbill-364 days 5.47 5.49 2 G-Sec 2Y 5.82 5.79 (3) India OIS-2M 5.34 5.33 (1) India OIS-9M 5.43 5.44 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.95 3.93 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.8 1.7 (0.1) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
08-12-2025 09-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (203.4) (560.7) (357.3) Debt (193.8) (324.2) (130.5) Equity (9.7) (236.5) (226.9) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,985.2 445.3 (1,539.9) Debt (635.7) (689.4) (53.6) Equity 2,620.9 1,134.7 (1,486.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 08 Dec and 09 Dec 2025
Oil prices rose, following intensification of tensions between US and Venezuela.
Table 7 – Commodities
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 61.9 62.2 0.4 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,208.2 4,228.8 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 11,487.0 11,568.2 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,253.0 3,240.5 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,856.5 2,867.0 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 December 2025
After US Fed reduced borrowing rate, other Central Banks sprang into action. The Philippine Central Bank also cut rates by 25bps to 4.5%. Swiss National Bank kept rates on hold at 0% citing global economy continues to pose a risk to domestic economic outlook. Apart from this, BoE is scheduled to meet next week, wherein a 25bps rate cut is expected, with the possibility of split vote. On the other hand, ECB is expected to maintain status quo on rates given the recent evidence of inflation inching upwards. In a divergent move from its peers, BoJ is likely to hike rate, and the same has been priced in, given the weakening Yen. The focus would be more on the neutral rate, which will be in the range of 1%-2.5%. Separately, the weekly US jobless claims rose to 4-year high to 236,000, much higher than anticipated. However, since the data during the beginning of holiday period is volatile, the focus should be on 4-week moving average claims which remains stable.
Global equity indices closed mixed. US stocks extended their gains further with S&P 500 posting a record high as investors tracked the rate cut announcement. Sensex rebounded with strong gains in metal and auto stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 48,058 48,704 1.3 S & P 500 6,887 6,901 0.2 FTSE 9,656 9,703 0.5 Nikkei 50,603 50,149 (0.9) Hang Seng 25,541 25,531 0 Shanghai Comp 3,900 3,873 (0.7) Sensex 84,391 84,818 0.5 Nifty 25,758 25,899 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Major global currencies closed mixed. DXY index fell by (-) 0.4%. EUR reached its 9-week high as US$ lost steam following higher than expected jobless claims data. INR fell by (-) 0.4%, reaching its lifetime low of 90.37/$, owing to persistent pressure from capital outflows. It is trading further lower today at another record low of 90.47/$, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1695 1.1738 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3383 1.3388 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 156.02 155.59 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 89.98 90.37 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0680 7.0571 0.2 DXY Index 98.79 98.35 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring US, other global 10Y yields declined. US 10Y yield remains elevated as investors gauge the probability of slower pace of rate cuts by Fed next year. Yields in Japan and India fell the most. In Japan, investors are cautious ahead of BoJ meeting next week. India’s 10Y yield fell by 4bps, tracking global cues and decline in oil prices. However, it is trading a tad higher today at 6.59%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change, bps US 4.15 4.16 1 UK 4.51 4.48 (2) Germany 2.85 2.84 (1) Japan 1.96 1.93 (3) China 1.84 1.82 (2) India 6.63 6.58 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short Term Rates
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.26 5.27 1 Tbill-182 days 5.47 5.41 (6) Tbill-364 days 5.49 5.45 (4) G-Sec 2Y 5.79 5.81 2 India OIS-2M 5.33 5.33 0 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.42 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 3.93 3.90 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.7 1.8 0.1 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
09-12-2025 10-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (560.7) (195.2) 365.5 Debt (324.2) 33.2 357.4 Equity (236.5) (228.4) 8.1 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,985.2 445.3 (1,539.9) Debt (635.7) (689.4) (53.6) Equity 2,620.9 1,134.7 (1,486.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 08 Dec and 09 Dec 2025
Oil prices fell by 1.5% (nearly 7-week low), amidst oversupply concerns.
Table 7 – Commodities
10-12-2025 11-12-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.2 61.3 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,228.8 4,280.2 1.2 Copper (US$/ MT) 11,568.2 11,896.8 2.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,240.5 3,376.3 4.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,867.0 2,900.0 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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