Banking Mantra

Economic Weekly Wrap
15 Dec 2025 - 19 Dec 2025

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  • 15 December 2025

    Global markets continued to assess the impact of easier liquidity conditions supported by the recent rate cut by Fed. Among other macro releases, has been UK’s monthly GDP data, which contracted by -0.1% in 3-months to Oct’25 compared to growth of 0.1% in the 3-months to Sep’25, led by slowdown in services sector. This becomes crucial reading ahead of BoE’s rate decision where money market is largely pricing in a 25bps rate cut before ending the CY25 cycle. Germany’s CPI came in at 2.3% in Nov’25, almost at the same level seen in Oct’25. In China, retail sales, industrial production and investment in fixed assets all pointed to some degree of softening, as all numbers missed estimates. Thus, calling for further policy support. On domestic front, headline CPI bottomed out but the weakness of core inflation remains


    Except US and UK, stocks elsewhere ended in green. In the US, AI concerns weighed on investor sentiments, leading to losses in tech stocks. Stocks in Asia ended higher buoyed by Fed rate cut bets. Hang Seng and Nikkei rose by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. In India, Sensex rose by 0.5% led by gains in metal and real estate stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Table 1 – Stock markets

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones48,70448,458(0.5)
    S & P 5006,9016,827(1.1)
    FTSE9,7039,649(0.6)
    Nikkei50,14950,8371.4
    Hang Seng25,53125,9771.7
    Shanghai Comp3,8733,8890.4
    Sensex84,81885,2680.5
    Nifty25,89926,0470.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies traded in thin ranges. DXY strengthened marginally as investors assess Fed rate path. GBP declined by 0.1% after a dismal GDP report. INR depreciated to a record low amid weak sentiments. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Table 2 – Currencies

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17381.17400
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.33881.3371(0.1)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)155.59155.81(0.1)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)90.3790.42(0.1)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.05717.05500
    DXY Index98.3598.400.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    The impact of Fed rate cut dissipated across 10Y yields of major AEs and EMs. For UK and UK, it rose by 3bps each albeit for the latter building expectations of rate cut. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up by 2bps monitoring the spread with US. India’s 10Y yield inched up a tad. It is trading at the same level today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change, bps
    US4.164.183
    UK4.484.523
    Germany2.842.861
    Japan1.931.952
    China1.821.842
    India6.586.591

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.265.271
    Tbill-182 days5.475.41(6)
    Tbill-364 days5.495.45(4)
    G-Sec 2Y5.795.812
    India OIS-2M5.335.330
    India OIS-9M5.445.42(2)
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR3.933.90(3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 5 – Liquidity

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)1.82.10.3

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital market flows

      10-12-2025 11-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(195.2)(346.2)(151.0)
    Debt33.2(141.3)(174.5)
    Equity(228.4)(204.9)23.5
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)1,184.53,217.02,032.5
    Debt(3,496.8)(246.9)3,249.9
    Equity4,681.33,463.9(1,217.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 Dec and 11 Dec 2025


    Oil prices declined further on fears of oversupply.

    Table 7 – Commodities

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)61.361.1(0.3)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,280.24,299.60.5
    Copper (US$/ MT)11,896.811,535.7(3.0)
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,376.33,215.6(4.8)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,900.02,868.5(1.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 16 December 2025

    Global markets remained cautious ahead of key macro releases in the US. The payroll numbers and headline unemployment rate is expected to put more light on future trajectory of Fed policy rate. Separately, most of the Fed officials gave conflicting signals. Fed Governor Stephen Miran spoke of the current stance being unnecessarily restrictive. On the other hand, New York Fed President said that the current policy is well positioned. This week, all eyes will also be on the BoJ and BoE policy. Among major data releases of the day, has been UK’s house price which fell at the same pace as seen in Dec’25. Japan’s PMI data showed some softening of services activity and manufacturing index remained below the 50-mark. On domestic front, weakness in INR remained at the centre point.


    Except FTSE, other global indices declined. Investors remained cautious ahead of US data releases and central bank meetings this week. Stocks in Asia declined tracking weak macro data from China. Nikkei and Hang Seng both fell by 1.3% each. In India, Sensex dropped by 0.1% led by losses in auto stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Table 1 – Stock markets

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones48,45848,417(0.1)
    S & P 5006,8276,817(0.2)
    FTSE9,6499,7511.1
    Nikkei50,83750,168(1.3)
    Hang Seng25,97725,629(1.3)
    Shanghai Comp3,8893,868(0.6)
    Sensex85,26885,213(0.1)
    Nifty26,04726,027(0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except INR, other global currencies closed broadly higher against the dollar. DXY was weaker ahead of the release of key macro data. Investors also awaited monetary policy decisions of ECB, BoE and BoJ. INR depreciated to a historic low as uncertainty persists over US trade deal. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.

    Table 2 – Currencies

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17401.17530.1
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.33711.33760
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)155.81155.230.4
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)90.4290.73(0.3)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.05507.04800.1
    DXY Index98.4098.31(0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    10Y yield in US and UK softened. For UK, the pricing in of 25bps rate cut by BoE have started taking shape. The stable CPI print in Germany kept its 10Y yield capped. For Japan, all eyes are on BoJ policy. Thus, its 10Y yield inched up a tad. For India, it closed stable and is trading at the same level today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change, bps
    US4.184.17(1)
    UK4.524.50(2)
    Germany2.862.850
    Japan1.951.961
    China1.841.861
    India6.596.590

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.275.270
    Tbill-182 days5.435.463
    Tbill-364 days5.485.480
    G-Sec 2Y5.815.79(1)
    India OIS-2M5.345.340
    India OIS-9M5.425.41(1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.983.970
    US SOFR3.663.671

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 5 – Liquidity

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.11.2(0.9)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital market flows

      11-12-2025 12-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(346.2)40.9387.1
    Debt(141.3)26.0167.3
    Equity(204.9)14.9219.8
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)1,184.53,217.02,032.5
    Debt(3,496.8)(246.9)3,249.9
    Equity4,681.33,463.9(1,217.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 11 Dec and 12 Dec 2025


    Oil prices declined as weak data from China led to demand concerns.

    Table 7 – Commodities

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)61.160.6(0.9)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,299.64,305.00.1
    Copper (US$/ MT)11,535.711,651.11.0
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,215.63,061.9(4.8)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,868.52,866.0(0.1)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 17 December 2025

    Among major macro releases, has been US jobs data where nonfarm payroll rose by 64K in Nov’25 compared to decline of -105K seen in Oct’25. The private payrolls rose by 69K. The 3-month moving average of nonfarm payroll also edged up by 22K. However, average hourly earnings sequentially moderated by 0.1% in Nov’25. Thus, albeit some degree of softening, visible signs of recovery in labour market conditions cannot be ruled out. Hence, Fed is likely to be cautious in its future monetary policy decisions. Separately Fed officials continued to give divergent signals. Atlanta Fed President said that policy rate should focus on inflation while Chicago Fed President spoke of a more conducive environment for rate cut on the back of stabilised growth. On domestic front, INR breached the 91/$ mark reigniting concerns on external front.


    Global stocks ended lower as investors’ monitored US jobs report. Impact of prolonged government shutdown is expected to have imparted a degree of uncertainty to the data. Markets also monitored flash PMIs of countries. Sensex dipped by 0.6%, tracking global cues. It is however trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Table 1 – Stock markets

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones48,41748,114(0.6)
    S & P 5006,8176,800(0.2)
    FTSE9,7519,685(0.7)
    Nikkei50,16849,383(1.6)
    Hang Seng25,62925,235(1.5)
    Shanghai Comp3,8683,825(1.1)
    Sensex85,21384,680(0.6)
    Nifty26,02725,860(0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

    Global currencies ended mixed. DXY dipped by 0.2% as US flash PMIs signalled a further worsening in economic activity in Dec’25. GBP rose by 0.4% as UK’s manufacturing PMI surged to a 15-month high. INR depreciated further and crossed the 91/$ mark. However, it is trading much stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Table 2 – Currencies

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17531.1747(0.1)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.33761.34230.4
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)155.23154.720.3
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)90.7391.03(0.3)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.04807.04260.1
    DXY Index98.3198.15(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    10Y yield in US softened weighing comments of central bank officials and tracking jobs data. For UK, it rose by 2bps albeit a near 5-year high unemployment print. Elsewhere, 10Y yields traded in a narrow range. India’s 10Y yield softened by 2bps albeit 10-day VRR remaining undersubscribed. It is trading at 6.57% today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change, bps
    US4.174.15(3)
    UK4.504.522
    Germany2.852.85(1)
    Japan1.961.960
    China1.861.850
    India6.596.58(2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.275.303
    Tbill-182 days5.465.45(1)
    Tbill-364 days5.485.491
    G-Sec 2Y5.795.811
    India OIS-2M5.345.340
    India OIS-9M5.415.421
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR3.673.758

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 5 – Liquidity

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)1.2(0.6)(1.8)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital market flows

      12-12-2025 15-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)40.9(43.2)(84.1)
    Debt26.0(107.0)(133.0)
    Equity14.963.848.9
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)3,814.7(1,199.6)(5,014.3)
    Debt1,700.9(3,618.2)(5,319.1)
    Equity2,113.82,418.6304.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 12 Dec and 15 Dec 2025


    Oil prices fell to a ~5year low amidst hopes of Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

    Table 7 – Commodities

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)60.658.9(2.7)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,305.04,302.3(0.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT)11,651.111,582.5(0.6)
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,061.93,025.0(1.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,866.02,876.50.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 18 December 2025

    Equity markets in the US continued to be impacted by sell off in technology stocks over valuation concerns of AI companies. DXY got breather following some momentum in US jobs report. Among other asset classes, both oil and gold firmed up. For oil, tensions surrounding US and Venezuela impacted prices. For gold, the safe-haven rally continued. Among major macro releases, has been UK’s inflation data where both CPI and core CPI softened. This further solidifies the narrative of rate cut by BoE in the upcoming policy. Traders will closely assess rate decision of ECB and central bank of Sweden, where status quo in rates is expected. For BoJ market is largely pricing in a rate hike and will monitor the spread with the US. On domestic front, INR got support from likely intervention by RBI.


    Except India and US, stocks elsewhere ended in green. Concerns over AI spending led to a sharp sell-off in tech stocks in the US. FTSE rose amidst increased hopes of a rate cut. In India, Sensex declined marginally, led by losses in capital goods and real estate stocks. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Table 1 – Stock markets

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones48,11447,886(0.5)
    S & P 5006,8006,721(1.2)
    FTSE9,6859,7740.9
    Nikkei49,38349,5120.3
    Hang Seng25,23525,4690.9
    Shanghai Comp3,8253,8701.2
    Sensex84,68084,560(0.1)
    Nifty25,86025,819(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Barring INR, other global currencies ended broadly weaker. DXY rose by 0.2% tracking higher US yields. GBP declined the most as the BoE is widely expected to deliver a rate cut today. EUR also dipped tracking a fall in Germany’s Ifo business climate index. INR appreciated sharply due to possible RBI intervention. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with its Asian peers.

    Table 2 – Currencies

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17471.1741(0.1)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.34231.3376(0.4)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)154.72155.69(0.6)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)91.0390.380.7
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.04267.04400
    DXY Index98.1598.370.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    US 10Y yield inched up a tad tracking comments of Fed Governor Waller over cautious approach tracking gap in policy rate from neutral rate. UK’s 10Y yield softened considerably as rate cut by BoE is widely priced in by traders. For Germany, albeit a downbeat Ifo data, its 10Y yield inched up. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps as system liquidity is running in deficit. It is trading at 6.61% today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change, bps
    US4.154.151
    UK4.524.48(4)
    Germany2.852.862
    Japan1.961.982
    China1.851.84(2)
    India6.586.602

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.305.27(3)
    Tbill-182 days5.455.494
    Tbill-364 days5.495.490
    G-Sec 2Y5.815.811
    India OIS-2M5.345.362
    India OIS-9M5.425.442
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR3.753.69(6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 5 – Liquidity

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)(0.6)(0.6)0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital market flows

      15-12-2025 16-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(43.2)(104.5)(61.3)
    Debt(107.0)52.0159.1
    Equity63.8(156.6)(220.4)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(1,199.6)(7,980.6)(6,781.1)
    Debt(3,618.2)(8,203.7)(4,585.5)
    Equity2,418.6223.1(2,195.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Dec and 16 Dec 2025


    Oil prices rose on reports of fresh US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

    Table 7 – Commodities

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)58.959.71.3
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,302.34,338.30.8
    Copper (US$/ MT)11,582.511,727.21.2
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,025.03,051.90.9
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,876.52,905.51.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 19 December 2025

    Global markets monitored major central bank policy decisions. BoE had cut policy rate by 25bps, and bank rate is at its 3-year low of 3.75%. However, BoE Governor, clearly signalled that there remains less scope of future easing. ECB maintained status quo amidst buoyant growth outlook and inflation aligning to the 2% target. The future policy outlook seems to be hawkish. BoJ raised policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, its first hike since Jan’25 with policy rate at its highest since CY95. The decision comes in the wake of CPI hovering at or above the targeted 2% level for 44-months in a row. Amongst major macro releases, both CPI and core CPI in the US softened to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, on YoY basis. Initial jobless claims moderated to 224K for the week ending 13 Dec. On domestic front, India and Oman signed trade pact to expand trade and investment, a welcoming move towards diversification.


    US stocks received support from a moderation in CPI. Elsewhere, investors monitored policy decisions and commentaries from BoE and ECB. Sensex declined further, as power and oil and gas receded. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian stocks are trading mostly higher.

    Table 1 – Stock markets

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones47,88647,9520.1
    S & P 5006,7216,7750.8
    FTSE9,7749,8380.6
    Nikkei49,51249,002(1.0)
    Hang Seng25,46925,4980.1
    Shanghai Comp3,8703,8760.2
    Sensex84,56084,482(0.1)
    Nifty25,81925,8160

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except EUR, other global currencies ended higher. DXY rose by 0.1% tracking CPI data. EUR depreciated as ECB likely closed the door for more rate cuts. GBP was broadly flat after BoE cut rates by a narrow vote. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading stronger at below the 90/$ mark today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Table 2 – Currencies

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17411.1722(0.2)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.33761.33810
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)155.69155.550.1
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)90.3890.250.1
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.04407.04130
    DXY Index98.3798.430.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    US 10Y yield softened by 3bps tracking moderation in CPI data. Elsewhere 10Y yields traded thinly monitoring policy decisions of major central banks. Japan’s 10Y yield is trading at its highest since CY06 at 2%, post BoJ rate decision. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps tracking auction results of Rs 500bn OMO purchase by RBI. It is trading at 6.58% today.

    Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change, bps
    US4.154.12(3)
    UK4.484.481
    Germany2.862.85(1)
    Japan1.981.970
    China1.841.840
    India6.606.57(3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 4 – Short Term Rates

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.275.25(2)
    Tbill-182 days5.495.490
    Tbill-364 days5.495.501
    G-Sec 2Y5.815.81(0)
    India OIS-2M5.365.35(1)
    India OIS-9M5.445.43(1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR3.693.690

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 5 – Liquidity

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)(0.6)(0.3)0.3

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research


    Table 6 – Capital market flows

      16-12-2025 17-12-2025 change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(104.5)101.5206.1
    Debt52.0(82.0)(134.1)
    Equity(156.6)183.6340.1
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(7,980.6)(129.3)7,851.4
    Debt(8,203.7)433.78,637.4
    Equity223.1(563.0)(786.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 16 Dec and 17 Dec 2025


    Oil prices rose as US President announced sanctions on Venezuela.

    Table 7 – Commodities

      17-12-2025 18-12-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)59.759.80.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)4,338.34,332.6(0.1)
    Copper (US$/ MT)11,727.211,764.10.3
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,051.93,036.7(0.5)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,905.52,916.00.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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