Economic Weekly Wrap
01 Dec 2025 - 05 Dec 2025

China’s manufacturing PMI remained below the 50-mark for the eight straight month, even as it inched up marginally to 49.2 from 49.0 in Oct’25. Non-manufacturing PMI slipped into the contraction zone at 49.5 in Nov’25, from 50.1 in Oct’25. Separately in Japan, core inflation in Tokyo inched up to 2.8% in Nov’25 (est. 2.7%), remaining above the BoJ’s target of 2%. Other indicators such as retail sales and factory output fared better than expected, while jobless rate held steady. Investors have raised expectations of a rate hike by the BoJ, due to the continued stickiness in inflation. In Germany, inflation remained above ECB’s target at 2.3% in Nov’25 (unchanged from Oct’25). Retail sales declined by 0.3% in Oct’25, following an increase of 0.3% in Sep’25. In India, GDP growth surpassed expectations to increase by 8.2% in Q2 FY26, supported by improvement in manufacturing and private consumption.

Equity indices broadly closed higher. Stocks in the US inched up tracking Fed’s Beige data which hinted at weaker labour market conditions, thus building up further hopes of rate cut in Dec’25. Among Asian indices, only Hang Seng inched down led by property and financial stocks. Sensex closed stable. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY dipped marginally as US manufacturing slump continued in Nov’25. JPY appreciated by 0.5% amidst hawkish comments from BoJ Governor. INR hit another record low due to weak investor sentiments. It is trading further weaker today, while other currencies are trading higher.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields witnessed a broad-based sell-off on account of risk re-alignment over reports of a sell-off in cryptocurrencies. US 10Y yield rose the most, following Germany and Japan. For Japan, yields are likely to be sticky ahead of 10Y bond auction. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading at 6.52% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in the US were closed on 27 Nov 2025

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 25 and 26 Nov 2025

Oil prices fell marginally awaiting the outcome of OPEC+ meeting.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global manufacturing activity weakened led by subdued growth in new orders and output. Manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone, Japan, China and US remained below the 50-mark, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. In the US, ISM manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 from 48.7 in Oct’25, amidst a fall in orders and increase in input prices. Separately, BoJ Governor stated that the central bank will assess the “pros and cons” of a rate hike in its next meeting. Tracking his comments, investors increased the bets of a rate hike in Dec’25 to ~80% from 60% earlier, prompting a sell-off in global bonds and crypto markets. In India, IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Oct’25, compared with 3.7% in Oct’24, led by a dip in electricity and mining output. India’s CAD narrowed to 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY26 from 2.2% last year, led by a lower merchandise trade deficit and higher services and remittances receipts.

Nikkei dropped the most as expectations of rate hike rose following BoJ Governor’s comments. Stocks in the US also moderated tracking a softening ISM print. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rose over optimism surrounding easier liquidity conditions. Sensex edged down a tad, led by real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. DXY dipped marginally as US manufacturing slump continued in Nov’25. JPY appreciated by 0.5% amidst hawkish comments from BoJ Governor. INR hit another record low due to weak investor sentiments. It is trading further weaker today, while other currencies are trading higher.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global yields witnessed a broad-based sell-off on account of risk re-alignment over reports of a sell-off in cryptocurrencies. US 10Y yield rose the most, following Germany and Japan. For Japan, yields are likely to be sticky ahead of 10Y bond auction. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading at 6.52% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 26 Nov and 27 Nov 2025

Oil prices were steady as OPEC+ kept its output levels for Q1 2026 unchanged.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Major macro data from the US signals slowdown in the economy. ADP employment report shows that private firms recorded an average decline 13,500 jobs/week, over the last 4 -weeks. Official data remains unavailable for Oct-mid Nov’25. On the consumption front, Conference Board consumer confidence index declined to 88.7 in Nov’25 from 95.5 in Oct’25, dragged by 8.6 points decline in expectations index. Tariffs, government shutdown and jobs weighed on the sentiment. Retail sales data for Sep’25 shows slowdown in momentum (0.2% versus 0.6% in Aug’25). This, along with impact of government shutdown is expected to weigh in on Q3 GDP. However, Q4 may get a boost from revival in real estate activity. US pending home sales rose by 1.9% in Oct’25 following 0.1% increase in Sep’25, amidst hopes of lower rates. In the UK, all eyes will be on budget presentation due today

Except India, stocks elsewhere ended in green. US indices inched up on increased bets of a rate cut amidst weakness in macro indicators. Positive comments from the US President on US-China relations lifted Asian indices. Sensex ended in red as consumer durables and oil and gas stocks declined. It is however trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025

Global currencies appreciated as the dollar lost ground. Weak macro data from the US has reinforced views of a Fed rate cut in Dec’25, which is weighing on the dollar. Despite positive global cues, INR ended broadly flat. It is trading marginally stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025

Except Japan and China, global 10Y yields eased elsewhere. UK and US 10Y yields fell the most. Weak macro data from the US strengthened the case for Fed rate cut in Dec’25. In the UK, investor demand remains steady ahead of the budget presentation. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps, tracking global cues. The 06.33 GS 2035 yield is trading at 6.50% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 24 Nov 2025

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 and 20 Nov 2025

Oil prices fell, tracking some progress on Ukraine-Russia peace deal front.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Private payrolls in the US dipped sharply by 32,000 in Nov’25 (est. +10,000), marking the biggest decline since Mar’23. The data once again casted doubts on the labour market and pushed the case for more Fed rate cuts. Industrial production in the US rose by 0.1% in Sep’25, following a decline of 0.3% in Aug’25. More importantly, growth in manufacturing output stalled as tariffs continue to impinge on production. Separately, US ISM services PMI edged up to 52.6 in Nov’25 from 52.4 in Oct’25. Elsewhere, services PMI in the Eurozone inched to a 30-month high. In India, services PMI inched up to 59.8 in Nov’25 from 58.9 in Oct’25 supported by a robust growth in new business orders. Investors await RBI’s policy guidance, against the backdrop of a rapid decline in the domestic currency.

Stock indices in the US got breather from a weak private payrolls data which strengthened hopes of rate cut by Fed in Dec’25. Nikkei also rose despite a stronger yen. Hang Seng continued to remain downbeat in the absence of fresh catalyst and awaiting policy directions from major central banks. Sensex closed flat. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies appreciated. DXY declined further as ADP data showed weakness in labour market. On the other hand, EUR appreciated as Eurozone’s composite PMI touched a 30-month high. Pressure on INR persisted with the currency touching another historic low. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading stronger.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

10Y yield in Japan firmed up tracking 30Y bond auction which reflected strong demand. For major AEs such as US and UK, 10Y yields softened as weak private payroll data in the US built up hopes of an easier monetary policy going forward. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. It is trading at 6.52% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 Nov and 01 Dec 2025

Oil prices edged up on reports of inconclusive peace talks between US and Russia.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global markets continued to assess the path of monetary policy in the US and Japan. While the Fed is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25bps next week, expectations of a rate hike by the BoJ have risen significantly as well. On the macro front, weekly jobless claims in the US declined by 27,000 to 191,000 (est. 220,000) largely due to seasonal effects. In Japan, news reports indicated constructive talks between Japanese PM and BoJ Governor, which is largely seen as a prelude to a rate hike in Dec’25. Separately, data showed that household spending in Japan declined by 3% in Oct’25 (est. +1%) marking the largest fall since Jan’24 as high inflation impacted consumption. In India, all eyes remain on RBI’s policy decision. We expect a status quo on rates and stance, while growth and inflation projections are likely to see some revision.

US stocks traded in a cautious range tracking a seasonal moderation in jobless claims. Nikkei firmed up considerably ahead of consumer spending data. Some correction is visible today, due to a moderation in the print. Sensex inched up, led by technology stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies ended mixed. After falling for eight consecutive sessions, DXY rose by 0.1% tracking a fall in weekly jobless claims. EUR and GBP weakened by 0.2% each. INR recovered from a record low to close 0.2% higher. It is trading further stronger today, while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 01 Dec and 02 Dec 2025

Oil prices edged up tracking geopolitical tensions between US and Venezuela.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research