Economic Weekly Wrap
05 Jan 2026 - 09 Jan 2026

China’s services activity expanded at its slowest pace with the reading of 52 in Dec’25 (52.1 in Nov’25). This was on the back of the weaker pace of growth in new businesses, while new exports businesses registered a contraction. Overall, the services sector in CY25 had registered a ‘modest growth’ even as there were concerns pertaining to volatile external demand. The economy has been witnessing structural challenges, particularly related to the property sector. Government has been taking steps to manage deflationary pressures. This week, analyst will closely monitor the ongoing developments related to the crisis unfolding in Venezuela which might have some impact on crude oil price. US employment data scheduled later this week will offer more guidance on labour markets.

Except Nikkei, other major equity indices closed higher. Hang Seng, Dow Jones and markets in India rose the most. Investor sentiment in the US was buoyed by a rally in semiconductor stocks, while in HK it was led by tech stocks. Sensex too jumped by 0.7%, driven by power, realty, and metal stocks. Sensex has opened lower today, while other Asian global indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Except India, all other markets were closed on 01 Jan 2026; China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Global currencies depreciated against the US$ at the start of the year. INR and EUR fell the most. Disappointing manufacturing PMI data for Eurozone impacted investor sentiments. INR weakened and again breached the 90/$ mark, driven by dollar demand and capital outflows. It is trading lower today, while Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Except India, all other markets were closed on 01 Jan 2026; China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Except Japan and China, other major 10Y yields ended higher. German yield rose to its highest since late Oct’23 expecting a record high debt supply this year and evaluating the probability of a rate hike by ECB by end of CY26. In the US, investors are cautious regarding Fed’s rate trajectory in CY26. India’s 10Y yield also inched up by 2bps, following global cues. It is trading at 6.63% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Except India, all other markets were closed on 01 Jan 2026; China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Table 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Except India, all other markets were closed on 01 Jan 2026

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 Dec and 30 Dec 2025

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Global commodity markets were closed on 01 Jan 2026

US ISM manufacturing activity contracted for the10-month in a row down to 47.9 in Dec’25 (lowest since Oct’24) from 48.2 in Nov’25. The slump is largely attributed to weaker demand for new orders and concerns pertaining to tariffs. For the same period, input price index remained steady at 58.5, while employment index inched up to 44.9 (from 44 in Nov’25). Separately, US Fed official Neel Kashkari made comments that inflation is slowly trending downwards and warned there are risks that unemployment might rise. The ongoing turmoil in Venezuela has heated up the metals market with analyst expecting some more volatility amidst the ongoing unrest.

Except domestic indices, other major equity indices across the globe closed higher as investors monitored ongoing developments related to military strike on Venezuela. Dow Jones surged led by financial and energy stocks. FTSE advanced and breached the 10,000 mark for the first-time supported by gains in mining and defence stocks. Sensex ended lower with losses in oil & gas, IT and media related stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian global indices are trading higher.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Except GBP and JPY, other major currencies ended lower or flat against the US$. DXY fell as weakness in economic activity remains a concern, in addition to ongoing geo-political tensions. Safe-haven demand helped appreciation in GBP and JPY. INR weakened further and remains above the 90/$ mark. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Global 10Y yields ended mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield rose the most to its 30-year high, as investors assess the possibility of BoJ hiking its policy rate beyond 1.5% (consensus estimate currently), amidst pressure from imported inflation. The US yield fell, tracking weak macro data. India’s 10Y yield inched up by 3bps following subdued demand. It is trading further higher at 6.64% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: China’s markets also closed on 2 Jan

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research| Note: Mutual Fund data as of 31 Dec 2025 and 1 Jan 2026

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Germany’s inflation cooled off to 1.8% in Dec’25 (2.3% in Nov’25). Core inflation softened to 2.4% (from 2.7%) in the same period. Separately, India’s services PMI dropped down to 58 in Dec’25 from 59.8 in Nov’25. This was on account of moderation in new demand and slowdown in hiring activity. On price front, input cost inflation inched up from last month, though it continues to be lower than long run average. Overall composite PMI slipped down to 57.8 from 59.7 in Nov’25. Analysts will closely track the upcoming release of GDP advance estimates for FY26. Investors will also monitor jobs report, scheduled later this week to gauge the rate trajectory. Fed official Stephen Miran commented on the need of aggressive rate cuts to in order to keep the economy moving forward.

Except domestic indices, other major equity indices closed higher across the globe. Dow Jones advanced with chip related stocks surging higher surrounded by AI related optimism. Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng gained the most. Sensex ended lower with majority losses in oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian indices are trading higher.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Currencies of advanced economies declined, while INR and CNY appreciated against the US$. DXY rose by 0.3% as investors monitor risks from ongoing US-Venezuela conflict and track recent statement by Fed officials. INR rose by 0.1%. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields ended mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield remains elevated as investors now expect BoJ’s terminal policy rate at 1.7%. In Germany, slower than expected Dec’25 inflation pushed yields down. US investors await jobs data for more direction on Fed’s rate trajectory. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, helped by drop in oil prices. However, it is trading higher at 6.62% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 Jan and 2 Jan 2026

Oil prices slipped and are expected to remain under pressure due to excess supply.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

The resurfacing of geopolitical uncertainties impacted the global markets and cautioned investors. These included regime change and the US strike in Venezuela along with the claims of a possible invasion risk in Taiwan. Furthermore, China has restricted the export of dual use items to Japan, signalling a possible new conflict. The items would include software or goods that can be used for both military and civilian applications, in addition to some rare earth elements that can be used for making ships or drones. Separately in US, job opening declined more than expected to 7.14 mn in Nov’25 (from 7.4mn in Oct’25) while hiring activity moderated to 5.1mn in Nov’25. In India, the economy is projected to grow 7.4% in FY26 from 6.5% in FY25 supported by robust growth in manufacturing and services sector.

Except Shanghai Comp, other major equity indices closed lower across the globe. S&P 500 slipped led by declines in financial and technology related stocks. Investors will closely monitor the upcoming earnings report for Q4CY25. Sensex continued with the downward trend with losses in auto and oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India, global currencies depreciated. DXY inched up marginally albeit a weaker JOLTS job report. GBP depreciated the most as weak PMI data build up hopes of a dovish monetary policy. INR appreciated by 0.3% tracking upbeat advance estimate growth numbers for FY26. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

UK’s 10Y yield fell the most amidst rising hopes of monetary easing. 10Y yield in US and Germany fell by 3bps each. For the US, weaker jobs data lend support. For Germany, softening retail sales data impacted yields. The Venezuela crisis impacted yields in China. India’s 10Y yield closed flat and is trading at the same level today

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital Market Flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 2 Jan and 5 Jan 2026

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 208k (est.: 211k) in the week ending 3 Jan 2026, from 200k in the previous week. The 4-week average of continuing claims rose to 1.89mn (+21k) from previous week’s 1.87mn. Investors now await report on additions to non-farm payrolls. Separately in Europe, ECB’s inflation expectations survey for Nov’25 indicates that consumers expect 1yr ahead inflation at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous month. It is thus expected that ECB will maintain status quo in and not lower rates any further (as was previously expected). In China, Dec’25 CPI rose to 34-month high of 0.8% from 0.7% in Nov’25, led by gain in food prices. However, for CY25, CPI was flat at 16yr low. Producer inflation (PPI) fell by (- ) 1.9% Dec’25 from (-) 2.2% last month. For the full year, it was down by (-) 2.6%.

Except US, other major equity indices ended broadly weaker. In the US, defence stocks surged as the US President hinted at a massive increase in defence spending. In Asia stocks slipped as trade tensions between Japan and China simmered. Sensex declined by 0.9% tracking sharp losses in metals and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with its Asian peers.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except CNY, other global currencies depreciated against the dollar. DXY rose by 0.3% ahead of US jobs data and Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. JPY fell tracking a decline in Japan’s real wages. INR also depreciated amidst tariff concerns. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US treasury yields reacted to smaller than expected increase in initial jobless claims last week. Investor sentiment in Germany was buoyed by ECB inflation expectations survey. Results reveal that there is little incentive for the central bank to cut rates any further. India’s bond yield rose by 2bps, tracking rise in oil prices. It is trading higher at 6.64% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short Term Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research