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Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market. Additionally, there were also concerns around economic weakness in China. Separately, US budget deficit widened to US$ 1.7tn for the fiscal year (ending on 30 Sep 2023), up from 23.2% compared with last year. The shortfall will add to the growing US debt. On the domestic front, RBI’s minutes noted that MPC members remain vigilant on maintaining price stability and focussing on the mandate of medium-term goal of 4% inflation mark.
19-10-2023
20-10-2023
% change
Dow Jones
33,414
33,127
(0.9)
S & P 500
4,278
4,224
(1.3)
FTSE
7,500
7,402
Nikkei
31,431
31,259
(0.5)
Hang Seng
17,296
17,172
(0.7)
Shanghai Comp
3,005
2,983
Sensex
65,629
65,398
(0.4)
Nifty
19,625
19,543
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0582
1.0594
0.1
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2144
1.2164
0.2
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
149.80
149.86
0
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
83.24
83.12
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.3104
7.3151
(0.1)
change in bps
US
4.99
4.91
(8)
UK
4.67
4.65
(2)
Germany
2.93
2.89
(4)
Japan
0.84
China
2.72
2.71
(1)
India
7.37
7.36
Tbill-91 days
6.90
6.92
2
Tbill-182 days
7.10
7.11
1
Tbill-364 days
7.12
G-Sec 2Y
7.29
7.30
India OIS-2M
6.81
6.83
India OIS-9M
6.97
6.95
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.19
US SOFR
5.30
Rs tn
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
0.8
0.6
Reverse repo
Repo
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
18-10-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
(192.2)
(116.2)
76.0
Debt
46.8
(1.9)
(48.7)
Equity
(239.0)
(114.3)
124.7
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
(1,406.4)
(1,448.9)
(42.5)
(1,754.9)
(2,405.3)
(650.5)
348.4
956.4
608.0
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Mutual fund data as of 17 Oct 2023 and 18 Oct 2023
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
92.4
92.2
(0.2)
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,974.5
1,981.4
0.4
Copper (US$/ MT)
7,928.0
7,879.8
(0.6)
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,410.5
2,433.5
1.0
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,185.0
2,181.5
US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%. This comes in the wake of better than expected US home sales, climbing to 19-month high (12.3% in Sep’23) as median house prices have fallen. The focus will now shift towards the release of US GDP and PCE which might offer further guidance on Fed’s next move. Separately, South Korea’s economy expanded at a much faster pace than expected (est:0.5%) at 0.6% for Q3CY23. With this, the attention will turn towards BoK’s rate decision. On the other hand, Bank of Canada kept the interest rate (5%) on hold with the possibility of two more rate hikes given the risk of price rise and inflation remaining above the target level in the coming 2-years.
24-10-2023
25-10-2023
33,141
33,036
(0.3)
4,248
4,187
(1.4)
7,390
7,414
0.3
31,062
31,270
0.7
16,992
17,085
2,962
2,974
64,572
64,049
(0.8)
19,282
19,122
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research│ Note: Indian markets were closed on 24.10.23
1.0590
1.0566
1.2160
1.2112
149.91
150.23
83.19
7.3111
7.3172
4.82
4.95
13
4.54
4.61
7
2.83
6
0.85
0.86
7.38
7.34
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Indian markets were closed on 24.10.23
6.94
6.93
7.05
7.13
8
7.15
3
7.28
6.78
(5)
6.96
23-10-2023
1.1
296.2
33.7
(262.5)
79.7
(15.6)
(95.3)
216.5
49.3
(167.3)
88.1
90.1
2.3
1,971.0
1,979.7
7,985.0
7,958.5
2,435.2
2,471.9
1.5
2,191.0
2,219.0
1.3
ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22. It noted that current level is enough to cool down inflation if the rates are maintained for ‘sufficiently long time’. It also stated the past rate hikes continue to be ‘transmitted forcefully into financial conditions’. ECB reiterated that they will continue with PEPP till the end of next year and will add another US$ 1.79tn and warned that the economy remains weak. On the other hand, US economy accelerated as its fastest pace in over 2-years to grow at 4.9% in Q3 with personal spending being the main growth driver. Separately, China’s industrial profits dropped by 9% for the period between Jan-Sep’23 compared with 11.7% in Jan-Aug’23 period. Tokyo’s core consumer inflation (ex food) rose more than anticipated to 2.7% (ext: 2.5%) in Oct’23 ahead of BoJ’s rate decision scheduled next week.
26-10-2023
32,784
4,137
(1.2)
7,355
30,602
(2.1)
17,045
2,988
0.5
63,148
18,857
1.0563
1.2129
150.40
83.23
7.3168
4.84
(11)
4.60
2.86
(3)
0.88
6.91
7.32
4
0.9
(487.0)
(520.7)
(2.9)
12.6
(484.1)
(533.4)
87.9
(2.4)
1,984.7
7,911.0
2,426.3
(1.8)
2,197.5
(1.0)
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