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Investors assessed the US jobs report for Sep’23 as non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in the month, much more than was anticipated by the analysts.
Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Thus signalling resilience in the economy and the possibility of Fed continuing with higher for longer; keeping rates elevated with the objective to tackle inflation. This will further add pressure on the already battered treasury yields, which even touched the 16-year high mark during the session. On domestic front, RBI maintained status quo as it kept both rates and stance unchanged. It reiterated about the 4% inflation target band and stated MPC remain vigilant towards achieving the same. With this, the focus would turn towards industrial growth and inflation data scheduled to release this week.
05-10-2023
06-10-2023
% change
Dow Jones
33,120
33,408
0.9
S & P 500
4,258
4,309
1.2
FTSE
7,452
7,495
0.6
Nikkei
31,075
30,995
(0.3)
Hang Seng
17,214
17,486
1.6
Shanghai Comp
3,107
3,110
0.1
Sensex
65,632
65,996
Nifty
19,546
19,654
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Markets in China were closed since 28 Sep
EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)
1.0550
1.0586
0.3
GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)
1.2192
1.2237
0.4
USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)
148.51
149.32
(0.5)
USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)
83.26
83.25
0.0
USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)
7.3118
7.2980
0.2
change in bps
US
4.72
4.80
8
UK
4.54
4.57
3
Germany
2.88
1
Japan
0.81
(1)
China
2.69
2.68
India
7.22
7.34
13
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research , Markets in China were closed since 28 Sep
Tbill-91 days
6.84
6.86
2
Tbill-182 days
7.06
0
Tbill-364 days
7.11
7.10
G-Sec 2Y
7.18
7.33
15
India OIS-2M
6.88
(2)
India OIS-9M
7.05
7.01
(4)
SONIA int rate benchmark
5.19
US SOFR
5.32
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Rs tn
change (Rs tn)
Net Liquidity (-Surplus/+deficit)
Reverse repo
(0.1)
Repo
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
04-10-2023
change (US$ mn/Rs
cr)
FII (US$ mn)
(241.8)
67.6
309.4
Debt
103.4
168.1
64.7
Equity
(345.3)
(100.5)
244.8
Mutual funds (Rs cr)
3,793.5
2,393.8
(1,399.7)
2,097.9
1,255.1
(842.8)
1,695.6
1,138.7
(556.9)
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research, Mutual fund data as on 3th and 4th Oct
Brent crude (US$/bbl)
84.1
84.6
Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)
1,820.3
1,833.0
0.7
Copper (US$/ MT)
7,823.8
7,971.3
1.9
Zinc (US$/MT)
2,450.3
2,481.8
1.3
Aluminium (US$/MT)
2,232.0
2,239.5
Widening of the conflict in Middle East weighed in on the investor sentiments as global markets remained attuned to the turmoil. As a result, crude oil prices surged by 4.2% with the possibility of supply constraints which might push prices higher. Gold prices also edged up, pushing higher demand for safe havens. Additionally, such escalations usually heighten the layer of uncertainty. Separately, US Fed officials in their latest commentary turned dovish signalling no more rate hike. They noted of carefully monitoring the rise in yields and will ‘assess the extent of any additional policy firming that may be necessary’. Markets will also turn their attention towards the earnings reports.
suggesting lesser need to hike rates, along with increased geo-political uncertainty (Israel conflict), impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, as oil prices jumped 4%. It trading higher at 7.41% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research , Market in US were closed on 9.10.23
Concerns around Middle East conflict eased marginally as investor continued to monitor the developments. This resulted in lower global crude oil prices. Gold prices slipped as investors looked for more cues on the next Fed policy action. Notably, recent comments by Fed officials hinted a dovish tone on interest rate expectation. The focus would now shift towards inflation data which is scheduled to release later this week. Separately, IMF hiked GDP forecast for India to 6.3% (+20bps from last update) for FY24 supported by ’stronger than expected consumption’ in Q1. Inflation projections have also been revised upwards for FY24.
reaffirm the views that the central bank may have come to an end of its rate hike cycle. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 3bps, following global cues and easing oil prices. However, it is again trading higher at 7.39% today.
Investors wagered that US interest rates have peaked, this was supported by recent dovish commentary of Fed officials. Fed minutes also highlighted the same. It was noted there is heightened uncertainty around economic outlook and there are host of factors that could impact the inflation. Fed remains attentive towards any inflation risk. According to the CME Fed watch tool, rates are already at its peak, with only 9% chance of a hike seen in Nov’23 meet. Investors will closely monitor the release of US CPI data, given the PPI data came in higher than anticipated. On domestic front, India’s inflation and industrial growth is also awaited.
following the release of Fed’s minutes. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 4bps, as oil prices eased further. However, it is again trading higher at 7.35% today.
US CPI came in higher than expected (0.4%in Sep’23 on MoM basis) led by acceleration in shelter cost (0.6% from 0.3%) and services (0.6% from 0.4%). This raises expectation that Fed will keep rates elevated for longer time. China’s inflation remained steady in Sep’23 (0.1% in Aug’23) against an expectation of 0.2%. On the other hand, producer price index remained in contraction (-2.5% from -3% in Aug’23). This raised concern of deflationary pressure in the economy. On domestic front, India’s inflation and industrial growth surprised positively. CPI moderated to 5% from 6.8% in Aug’23 with core softening to 4.6%. Food inflation eased to 6.6% (9.9% in Aug’23) and fuel inflation contracted to 0.1% (+4.3% in Aug’23). Industrial growth expanded to 10.3% due to base effect and strong growth in infra goods.
one more rate hike by Fed has increased to 38% from 28% previously. On the other hand, India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, even as oil prices showed slight upward movement. However, it is trading higher today at 7.37%, following global cues.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research Note: Mutual fund data as of 6th and 9th Oct 2023
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