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US labour market data is pointing towards a slowdown, as non-farm payrolls rose by only 12k in Oct’24 versus est.: 113k increase. However, analyst believe that this is temporary and was largely due to factors such as: strike by Boeing workers and 2 major hurricanes. Manufacturing sector was hit the most. This is last jobs report before Presidential elections and Fed rate decision, both due this week. US ISM manufacturing index for Oct’24 also showed that activity contracted at a faster pace (46.5) versus last month (47.2). Production was most impacted, and input price reportedly increased. In view of this, and awaiting the result of closely fought US Presidential elections, investors expect 25bps Fed rate cut this week. Apart from developments in the US, markets this will also react to RBA’s decision, China’s parliamentary meeting outcome, and South Korea’s inflation report.
US stocks edged up as traders are frontloading positions ahead of election. Opinion polls suggested a tight run. This will also coincide with Fed meeting where policy easing is anticipated. Nikkei moderated weighed down by yen. Shanghai Comp softened awaiting fiscal stimulus. Sensex inched up driven by auto stocks. It is trading lower today while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.3%, driven by heightened political uncertainty ahead of a close US Presidential election race. Further, despite softer labour market data, analysts are expecting Fed to cut rates less aggressively. INR continues to hover near record low levels, and is trading flat even today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
US 10Y yield rose at the sharpest pace as earnings data showed some stickiness. This was also supplemented by uncertainty looming over US elections. US and Japan’s 10Y yield remained stable monitoring differential with US yield. China’s 10Y yield moderated ahead of policymakers meet. India’s 10Y yield inched up by 2bps. It is trading at the same level today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 1 Nov 2024
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 1 Nov 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 and 29 Oct 2024
Oil prices fell, following the news of record US crude output.
As final voting date for US Presidential election nears, there remains heightened uncertainty regarding the outcome. Polls are showing a close call. Fed is also due to make a decision regarding its rate cut trajectory. Latest macro data confirms that durable goods orders fell by (-) 0.5% in Sep’24, following downwardly revised (-) 0.8% decline in Aug’24. Manufacturing ISM index has already confirmed that this slowdown persisted in Oct’24 as well. In Europe, Markit manufacturing PMI index rose a tad to 46 in Oct’24 (5-month high) from 45 in Sep’24, as activity contracted at a slower pace in Germany (PMI at 3-month high of 43). RBA in its latest meeting has kept its policy rate unchanged, due to slow disinflationary trend. Domestically, manufacturing PMI index showed improvement in activity in Oct’24 (57.5 versus 56.5), driven by higher production. Rise in input prices could pose a challenge.
US stocks was pared down as uncertainty looms over election outcome. Muted factory and durable goods orders also weighed down sentiments. Asian stocks inched up awaiting China’s stimulus measures. Sensex moderated led by real estate stocks. It is trading lower today while Asian stocks are trading higher tracking China’s upbeat PMI data.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 4 Nov 2024
Except JPY and INR, other major currencies ended higher against the US$. The DXY fell by (-) 0.4% as treasury yields declined. Investors are closely monitoring trends in the US Presidential election race, with Harris taking a surprise lead in Iowa. The INR fell to a record low due to rising oil prices and is trading even lower today, while other Asian currencies show mixed trends.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: Markets in India were closed on 1 Nov 2024; Markets in Japan were closed on 4 Nov 2024
US 10Y yield continued its downward momentum driver by weaker macro numbers. Some frontloading is happening ahead of election outcome. Yields of other countries also moderated to maintain the yield differential with the US. India’s 10Y yield also fell by 2bps. It is trading at the same level today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 1 Nov 2024; Markets in Japan were closed on 4 Nov 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 and 30 Oct 2024
Oil prices rebounded as OPEC+ announced plans to continue output cuts until Dec 2024.
Globally, all eyes are set on US Presidential election results as voting ends. Early results indicate a possible victory for Trump. This will push both yields and stocks higher and also benefit US$. On the macro front, US ISM services PMI showed that activity improved at a healthy pace in Oct’24 with the index at 56 versus 54.9 in Sep’24. This was driven by jump in employment sub-index. New orders also rose, but at a slower pace. In UK, activity in Oct’24 noted slowest pace of growth since Nov’23 (PMI at 52 versus 52.4 in Sep’24), due to lower output levels, export orders and employment. Services activity in Japan contracted in Oct’24 (49.7 from 53.1 in Sep’24), due to weakness in sectors like I&C and real estate & business services. In China, Caixin services PMI rose to 52 in Oct’24 (50.3 in Sep’24), helped by increase in new business. Investors now await details on more fiscal stimulus measures.
Barring FTSE, other global indices ended higher. Investors turned their focus towards US elections result. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng gained the most, anticipating the unveiling of new stimulus package by the government. Sensex ended in green, supported by gains in banking and metal stocks. It is trading higher today while other Asian indices are trading mixed.
Except for CNY (lower) and INR (flat), other major currencies ended higher against the US$. DXY retreated further, ahead of the outcome of the US presidential elections. The Euro edged up, supported by better-than-expected investor confidence data (Sentix: -12.8 from -13.8 in Oct). INR remained flat but is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 4 Nov 2024
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US10Y was down by 1bps, while yields in UK and Germany inched up. Investors tread cautiously ahead of US election results and Fed’s rate decision. In UK, investors await BoE’s rate decision, amidst loosening fiscal policy scenario (budget presented last week). India’s 10Y yield closed flat. However, tracking global cues, it is trading higher today at 6.86%
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 and 4 Nov 2024
Oil prices rose further, supported by a weaker US$, ahead of the US election results.
In a tight race between Trump and Harris, President elect Trump proved to be a clear winner. This led to sharp jump in US bond yields, currency and stock indices. Election results have also revived worries regarding government’s fiscal discipline, borrowing levels and thus the inflation trajectory. While Fed is expected to be on track to cut rates by 25bps in its meeting ending later today, future trajectory has become uncertain. Analyst now expect ~62bps cut next year, down from ~90bos cut expected until last week. For global growth recovery, tariffs on China are now a key risk. Latest data shows that China’s exports rose by 12.7% in Oct’24 (est.: +5%) from 2.4% in Sep’24 due to seasonal factors (improved weather conditions for shipments, and demand ahead of Christmas). In contrast imports fell by (-) 2.3% (est.: -2%). China is expected to unveil more fiscal stimulus measures on Friday.
Global indices ended mixed. Investors monitored the outcome of US Presidential elections and turned their focus towards the upcoming Fed rate decision. Dow Jones surged by 3.6%, followed by gains in Nikkei. Sensex continued the upward momentum ending in green led by a strong rally in IT and oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Major currencies ended lower against the dollar. DXY firmed up (1.6%) to a 4-month high post a stellar victory by Donald Trump. The Fed’s upcoming rate decision will be closely watched as Trump’s victory could possibly delay the easing cycle. INR depreciated despite a dip in oil prices. It is trading at similar levels today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Except Germany and India, other global 10Y yields closed higher. US10Y jumped sharply by 16bps, as Presidential election results showed Trump as the clear winner. Concerns regarding fiscal deficit levels and inflation trajectory resurfaced. India’s 10Y yield closed flat, and is trading a tad lower today at 6.82%, tracking decline in oil prices.
Oil prices declined, as US$ strengthened sharply, after election results
In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rates by 25bps to 4.5- 4.75%, in view of easing labour market conditions. Fed Chair also cautioned that federal government’s fiscal policy is unsustainable. The Board will await more data on inflation and employment before making a rate cut decision in Dec’24. Markets are currently pricing in ~70% of a 25bps cut in Dec’24. A pause is also expected in Jan’25. Separately, Bank of England (BoE) also announced its rate decision in view of gradual disinflation process. However, the Governor again cautioned that the central bank is unlikely to lower rates too fast or too steeply, in order to bring inflation down to 2% on durable basis. Impact of budget on inflation and growth indicates that it will take longer to reach the 2% inflation mark now. Growth forecast for CY25 was raised to 1.5% (1% earlier) and inflation forecast to 2.7% (2.5% in CY24).
Global indices ended mixed. S&P 500 gained post-election rally and after the Fed reduced rates by 25bps.The rally was further supported by lower treasury yields. Shanghai Comp gained the most awaiting the announcement of fiscal stimulus package from the government. Sensex ended in red amidst pressure form FII selling. It is trading lower today while Asian indices are trading mixed.
Except for INR, other major currencies ended higher. The DXY retreated after climbing to a 4-month high as investors monitored the Fed’s rate decision. EUR edged up amidst news of political turmoil brewing in Germany. After the BoE lowered rates, GBP inched up. INR weakened amidst rising oil prices. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell sharply by 11bps, as Fed lowered its benchmark rates by 25bps. Fed Chair’s statement suggested further reduction in rates in Dec’24. UK gilts also reacted to BoE’s rate cut decision. India’s 10Y yield closed flat, but is trading a tad lower today at 6.81%, tracking global cues.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 4 and 5 Nov 2024
Oil prices rose, supported by weaker US$ and Fed rate cut decision.
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