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In the US, jobless claims inched up to 215k for the week ending 23 May 2026 from 210k in the previous week. The four-week moving average also increased by 6.3k to 209k. Despite uncertainty arising from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, layoffs have remained low, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% in May 2026.
In Germany, the number of unemployed fell below the 3 million mark to 2.95 million in May 2026, down by 58k from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.3%. Separately, global investors turned net buyers of equity funds during the week ended 27 May, with inflows of US$457.6 million compared with an outflow of US$6.6 billion in the previous week, supported by reports of a possible extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Domestically, market participants will closely watch the upcoming RBI monetary policy meeting and the release of India's GDP estimates, both of which are expected to influence investor sentiment.
Global equity markets closed on a mixed note. US markets gained as lower oil prices boosted sentiment amid optimism surrounding a possible peace agreement. Japan's Nikkei surged to a record high, supported by strong buying in AI-related stocks. Indian markets declined due to weakness in oil & gas and metal stocks, although the Sensex is trading higher today while other Asian markets remain mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 28 May 2026.
Global currencies strengthened against the US dollar, except the Japanese yen. The dollar weakened on optimism surrounding a possible peace agreement, offsetting safe-haven demand. The Indian rupee appreciated on lower crude oil prices and is trading stronger today, in line with most Asian currencies.
Global bond yields traded in a narrow range. Japan's 10-year bond yield declined by 3bps following softer inflation data, while Germany's yield eased by 2bps despite expectations of an ECB rate hike in June 2026. India's 10-year government bond yield edged higher following the latest auction and is trading around 6.99% today.
Banking system liquidity moderated sharply, with net surplus liquidity declining from Rs 0.7 trillion on 27 May 2026 to Rs 0.1 trillion on 29 May 2026.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 28 May 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 May and 25 May 2026.
Crude oil prices declined further as easing geopolitical tensions and hopes of a peace agreement reduced supply concerns. Gold prices advanced, while copper and zinc declined marginally. Aluminium prices ended slightly higher.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
In India, according to the provisional data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the Centre achieved its fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26, improving from 4.8% recorded in FY25. The Government collected Rs 33.42 lakh crore (98.8% of the Revised Estimates) in revenue and incurred expenditure of Rs 49.64 lakh crore (98.8% of the Revised Estimates). During April 2026, total expenditure increased by 23.5% compared with 12.9% growth in the corresponding period last year.
Separately, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) adopted a new base year of 2022-23, along with revised weights and expanded coverage, including new sectors such as water supply, sewerage and gas supply. Industrial production grew by 4.9% in April 2026 compared with 5.8% in April 2025. Globally, aluminium prices surged to a near four-year high amid escalating supply concerns due to the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note as uncertainty persisted over developments surrounding the geopolitical conflict. US markets extended gains, supported by technology and energy stocks, while Japan's Nikkei continued to advance. In India, the Sensex declined due to losses in power and capital goods stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian markets are mixed.
Global currencies broadly weakened against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened following a stronger-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI reading. The euro and Japanese yen each depreciated by 0.2%, while the Indian rupee remained unchanged. The rupee is trading slightly weaker today, with other Asian currencies showing mixed performance.
Global bond yields mostly moved higher, with the exception of China. The UK 10-year government bond yield recorded the largest increase, followed by Germany, amid continued uncertainty over developments relating to the proposed US-Iran peace agreement. India's 10-year government bond yield also edged higher and is trading at similar levels today.
Banking system liquidity remained in surplus but moderated slightly, with net liquidity declining from Rs 1.0 trillion to Rs 0.9 trillion.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 26 May and 27 May 2026.
Crude oil prices moved higher as the US and Iran provided conflicting accounts regarding the conflict in Lebanon. Industrial metals also gained, led by aluminium, while gold prices declined.
Geopolitical tensions escalated once again as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled following reports that the US military intercepted missiles allegedly fired by Iran towards Kuwait and Bahrain.
On the macroeconomic front, US job openings increased sharply to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest level in nearly two years and well above market expectations of 6.8 million. The job openings rate rose to 4.6% of the labour force, led by gains in the professional & business services sector (668k) and healthcare & social assistance (89k). Meanwhile, the hiring rate eased to 3.2% (5.12 million workers), down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Ahead of the US employment report, markets expect payrolls to increase by more than 100k in May 2026 while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%. The latest labour market data is expected to support the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep policy rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
Global equity markets ended mostly higher, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei. US markets gained as optimism surrounding AI-related stocks continued, with advances across most sectors of the S&P 500. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the best-performing index. In India, the Sensex rebounded on gains in IT stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while Asian markets are showing mixed performance.
Major global currencies ended on a mixed note. The British pound strengthened against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen and Indian rupee weakened. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained broadly unchanged despite stronger-than-expected US job openings data. The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.3% amid rising crude oil prices and is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies as investors monitor renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Global bond yields declined across most major markets, except China and India. Japan's 10-year government bond yield recorded the sharpest decline as investors assessed whether the Bank of Japan may slow its bond tapering programme. Market participants also remained focused on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. India's 10-year government bond yield remained broadly unchanged and is trading slightly higher at around 7.03% today.
Banking system liquidity improved, with net surplus liquidity increasing from Rs 0.9 trillion to Rs 1.1 trillion.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 27 May and 29 May 2026.
Crude oil prices increased further as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Gold prices edged up marginally, while copper, zinc and aluminium prices posted solid gains.
In the US, the ISM Services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in May 2026 from 53.6 in April, indicating stronger expansion in the services sector. Growth was driven by higher business activity, which rose to 57.7, and a sharp increase in new orders. The Prices Paid Index edged up to 71.3 from 70.7, while the Employment Index eased marginally to 47.9 from 48.0.
On the labour front, ADP private payrolls increased by 122k in May 2026, exceeding market expectations and improving from 105k jobs added in April. Hiring was broad-based, led by the education and healthcare sector (57k jobs), followed by trade and transportation (36k) and professional & business services (11k). In India, the Union Cabinet approved a one-time interest-free assistance package of Rs 10,000 crore for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to help stabilize rising aviation fuel prices amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note as geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on investor sentiment. US markets declined as rising Treasury yields and higher crude oil prices dampened risk appetite. Japan's Nikkei outperformed with strong gains, while India's Sensex closed lower due to weakness in IT stocks. It is trading lower today, broadly in line with other Asian markets.
Major global currencies weakened against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened by 0.3%, supported by resilient US labour market data and stronger-than-expected factory orders. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also supported demand for the dollar. The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.5% amid rising crude oil prices and is trading broadly steady today, while other Asian currencies are mixed.
Global bond yields moved higher across major markets. The UK's 10-year government bond yield recorded the sharpest increase, followed by Japan and Germany. In Japan, concerns over the government's debt position intensified following details of the supplementary budget. US Treasury yields also rose as investors reacted to stronger macroeconomic data and renewed geopolitical tensions. India's 10-year government bond yield increased marginally but is trading slightly lower at around 7.01% today.
Banking system liquidity improved further, with net surplus liquidity rising from Rs 1.1 trillion to Rs 1.7 trillion.
Crude oil prices continued to rise amid persistent supply concerns. Gold and base metal prices declined, with copper, zinc and aluminium recording notable losses.
In the US, initial jobless claims increased by 13k to 225k for the week ended 30 May 2026, marking the highest level in more than four months. However, the underlying labour market remained resilient, with the four-week moving average rising to 214k. The increase is largely attributed to seasonal distortions associated with the holiday period, during which claims typically rise. Investors now await the release of the US employment report for May 2026 later today.
Elsewhere, Australia's trade balance returned to a surplus of AUD 1.8 billion in April 2026 after recording a deficit of AUD 1.8 billion in March, supported by stronger exports. In India, market participants are focused on the RBI's monetary policy announcement and the release of Q4 FY26 GDP data.
Global equity markets ended on a mixed note as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. US markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones closing at a record high, supported by gains in healthcare and financial stocks. Japan's Nikkei declined following weakness in technology shares, while the Sensex ended largely unchanged. It is trading higher today, whereas other Asian markets are mixed.
Global currencies closed on a mixed note against the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.1% amid developments in the Middle East. The euro and Chinese yuan appreciated, supported by softer oil prices. The Indian rupee weakened marginally by 0.1% as investors awaited the RBI's policy announcement. The rupee is trading stronger today, while most Asian currencies are trading weaker.
Except for Japan, government bond yields declined across major markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased by 2 basis points as crude oil prices softened and investors reacted to higher-than-expected jobless claims while awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report. India's 10-year government bond yield fell below the 7% mark ahead of the RBI's policy decision and is trading lower today at around 6.98%.
Banking system liquidity remained comfortable, with net surplus liquidity increasing from Rs 1.7 trillion to Rs 1.9 trillion.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 May and 1 June 2026.
Crude oil prices declined amid weak global cues. Gold and copper prices advanced, while zinc and aluminium prices ended lower.
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