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US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24. PCE price index rose by 0.2% (MoM), matching the increase in Jun’24. Core PCE index too rose at an unchanged pace of 0.2%. University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index edged up to 67.9, snapping a 4-month slide, with a decline in consumers’ 1Y inflation expectations. With the economy holding ground and inflation subsiding, expectations for a 50bps rate cut in Sep’24 have subsided. Separately, inflation in the Eurozone eased to a near 3-year low of 2.2% in Aug’24, strengthening the case for further rate cuts by ECB. In China, manufacturing PMI slumped to a 6-month low of 49.1 in Aug’24, led by a decline in factory gate prices and new orders. However, non-manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 50.3 versus 50.2 in Jul’24. In India, GDP growth in Q1FY25 was at 6.7%. Core sector growth picked up to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1%.
Global indices rallied. Positive macro data prints in the US (softening core PCE and moderating 1Y inflation expectations), solidified bets of future rate cuts by the Fed. Hang Seng rose the most, followed by US stocks. Sensex inched up driven by real estate and technology stocks. It is trading further higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies depreciated. DXY gained as US data boosted the case for a smaller rate cut in Sep’24. JPY depreciated sharply even as high inflation rate in the region suggested more rate hikes. INR closed flat. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
US 10Y yield inched up as investors have already priced in rate cut by the Fed. Focus is now on the quantum of rate cut. Germany’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps as unemployment rate inched up. UK, Japan, China and India’s yield closed stable, awaiting fresh cues. India’s 10Y yield is trading marginally higher at 6.87%.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 27 Aug and 28 Aug 2024
Oil prices moderated amidst easing supply concerns.
Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24. Manufacturing PMI in UK, Japan and China inched up, signalling some strength. However, it remained stuck in contraction in the Eurozone, led by Germany and France. In this week, investor focus will remain on US macro data, especially the labour market report. Lower than expected additions in US nonfarm payrolls can force the Fed to cut rates by 50bps. As of now, investors’ expectations have shifted in favour of a 25bps rate cut. In India, manufacturing PMI remained well above its long-term average at 57.5 in Aug’24, suggesting robust activity. Monsoon rainfall was 8% above LPA as of 2 Sep 2024, with kharif sowing also registering a 1.9% increase over last year (as of 30 Aug 2024).
Global indices closed mixed. Investors remained cautious ahead of US macro data (payroll, ISM PMI and capital goods orders). Hang Seng dropped the most, weighed down by real estate sector woes in China. Nikkei inched up, supported by a softer yen. Sensex rose, driven by gains in technology stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in the US were closed on 2 Sep 2024
Global currencies ended mixed as investors await US jobs data. GBP rose led by an increase in UK’s manufacturing PMI (26-month high) in Aug’24. JPY depreciated, as interest rate differential between US and Japan is expected to be maintained. INR depreciated despite lower oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, in line with Asian peers.
Barring China (lower) and US (stable), global yields inched up. Momentum in US consumer spending has raised doubts about the quantum of Fed rate cut. This has driven yields higher in other major AEs such as UK and Germany. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad and is trading at 6.87% today
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 28 Aug and 29 Aug 2024
Oil prices declined led by demand concerns amid weak growth in China.
US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. This kicks off a crucial data-heavy week preceding the Fed meeting, with US services PMI and jobs report also due. While a rate cut has been fully priced in, uncertainty still remains over its quantum. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25bps rate cut stands at 59%, and for a 50bps cut at 41%. Separately, CPI inflation in South Korea eased to its lowest in 3.5 years at 2% from 2.6% in Jul’24, paving way for future rate cuts. In Australia, GDP growth missed estimates and increased by 0.2% (est. 0.3%) in Q2 2025, unchanged from Q1 (QoQ basis). World Bank revised India’s GDP forecast for FY25 upwards to 7% from 6.6% estimated earlier. This will be supported by a pickup in private investment, recovery in agriculture and declining inflation.
Global indices closed lower. The global equity sell-off was led by US stocks as US manufacturing activity remained weak. Asian markets were dragged down by a slump in stocks of chipmakers. A firmer dollar also weighed on sentiments. S&P 500 fell the most, followed by Dow and FTSE. Sensex closed flat. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in US were closed on 2 Sep 2024
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY rose by 0.2% as investors await US jobs report. JPY strengthened by 1% supported by hawkish comments from BoJ Governor. INR depreciated and continued to hover around a lifetime low. It is trading at similar levels today; Asian currencies are trading mostly weaker.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda
Global yields closed mixed. Risk-off sentiment led to higher demand for US treasury yields. Thus, US 10Y yield fell by 7bps. 10Y yields in UK and Germany also declined. In UK, 10Y yield declined despite a firmer BRC shop price data. Japan’s 10Y yield inched a tad as expectations linger over policy tightening. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at 6.86%.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 29 Aug and 30 Aug 2024
Oil prices fell further amid expectations of a resumption of Libyan supplies.
Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month. However, core CPI sprung a surprise as it rose by 0.3% in Aug’24 (est.: 0.2%), up from 0.2% in Jul’24. Within this, services (less energy services) inflation rose by 0.4% in Aug’24 (0.3% last month), fastest since Apr’24. Markets are now worried that trend of disinflation might not be continuous. This supports the view that Fed may deliver a smaller rate cut in its meeting next week. In UK, worries around growth have resurfaced with monthly GDP showing flat growth in Jul’24, lower than 0.2% growth expected by analysts. This has reaffirmed views that the BoE may lower rates in its Nov’24 meeting. In India, cabinet announced key decisions-Ayushman Bharat scheme will be available to all above 70 years of age; implementation of PM Gram Sadak Yojna from FY25-29; PM- E drive scheme.
Barring US, stocks elsewhere ended lower. A rally in tech stocks drove US markets higher even as hopes of a 50bps rate cut faded after the inflation report. Nikkei fell for the 7th straight session as a stronger Yen weighed on sentiments. Sensex too declined by 0.1% led by a sharp fall in oil and gas stocks. It is however trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.
Except INR, other global currencies appreciated. DXY declined as US labour market appears to be softening. JPY strengthened the most. EUR and GBP also rose supported by a pickup in services PMI in both the regions. INR continues to trade near a lifetime low. Asian currencies are trading mostly stronger today.
Risk-off sentiment led buying persisted in global treasury markets. US 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace tracking weak macro data. Atlanta Fed President also flagged risks of keeping rates high for too long. Markets are now leaning towards larger quantum of Fed rate cuts. Yields globally also declined. India’s 10Y yield closed a tad lower and is trading at 6.85% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Data for Mutual Funds as of 30 Aug and 2 Sep 2024
Oil prices fell as muted demand concerns suggested a delay in OPEC+ Oct cut.
Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market. Weekly jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 227,000 (est. 230,000). On the other hand, ADP data showed private payrolls increasing at the slowest pace since Jan’21, by a sombre 99,000 (est. 145,000). Separately, US ISM services index picked up marginally to 51.5 in Aug’24 (est. 51.1) from 51.4 in Jul’24 led by new orders. However, employment dipped. Investors now eagerly await the US jobs report due later in the day. Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 versus 114,000 in Jul’24. Unemployment rate is also estimated to have dipped to 4.2% from a 3-year high of 4.3% in Jul’24. The report is likely to shape the path of future Fed policy.
Except Shanghai Comp (higher), other global indices closed lower. The downward drift in labour market data in the US (ADP report) coupled with weak labour cost, raised concerns of a slowing economy. Nikkei fell the most, amidst concerns over policy divergence. Fall in Sensex was driven by real estate stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Barring INR, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY fell further tracking mixed US data, with focus firmly on the jobs report. EUR and GBP appreciated by 0.3% each. JPY strengthened supported by expectations of more rate hikes. INR depreciated to a record low led by dollar demand from importers. It is trading a tad stronger today, in line with its Asian peers.
Global yields closed mixed. The downward momentum in US 10Y yield continued tracking weak ADP jobs report. This has further raised hopes of a higher quantum of rate cut, if US payroll numbers also follow suit. 10Y yield in UK and Germany also softened on account of pre-positioning. India’s 10Y yield closed stable and is trading at 6.85% today.
Oil prices were broadly steady ahead of change in US inventories data.
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