Economic Weekly Wrap
22 Sep 2025 - 26 Sep 2025
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22 September 2025
Global markets ended mixed as investors assessed commentaries from global central banks, particularly the Fed and BoJ. In the US, Fed’s comments were perceived to be less dovish than market expectations, with the Fed Chair characterising the recent rate cut as “risk management”. In Japan, an unexpected dissent by two board members has led markets to re-evaluate the future path of monetary policy. On macro front, retail sales in the UK quickened in Aug’25. On the other hand, government borrowing in Apr-Aug’25 exceeded official forecasts, raising some concerns over the government’s fiscal health. At the same time, consumer confidence index dipped to -19 in Sep’25. In India, focus will be on progress in USIndia trade talks as well as festive spending as the GST rate cuts kick in.
Global indices closed mixed. US stocks showed some momentum amidst expectations of easier liquidity conditions. On the other hand, Asian stocks softened, with Nikkei falling the most, amid expectations of BoJ rate hike. Sensex fell by 0.5%, led by losses in banking and consumer durables stocks. It is however trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading higher.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,142 46,315 0.4 S & P 500 6,632 6,664 0.5 FTSE 9,228 9,217 (0.1) Nikkei 45,303 45,046 (0.6) Hang Seng 26,545 26,545 0 Shanghai Comp 3,832 3,820 (0.3) Sensex 83,014 82,626 (0.5) Nifty 25,424 25,327 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended broadly lower against the dollar. DXY strengthened as Fed’s guidance was less dovish than anticipated. Amongst major currencies, GBP declined the most by 0.6% on fiscal concerns. JPY and INR ended flat. INR is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1788 1.1746 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3555 1.3472 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.00 147.95 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.13 88.10 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1124 7.1182 (0.1) DXY Index 97.35 97.64 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except India, global yields firmed up. UK’s 10Y yield rose the most as public sector net borrowing stiffened in Aug’25. Japan’s 10Y yield also inched up as expectations over future rate hike by BoJ increased. In the US, some risk on sentiment prevailed tracking weakness in jobless claims. For India, 10Y yield moderated awaiting VRR auction results. It is trading at 6.50% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.10 4.13 2 UK 4.68 4.72 4 Germany 2.73 2.75 2 Japan 1.60 1.65 4 China 1.78 1.80 2 India 6.51 6.49 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.45 5.45 0 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.56 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.57 5.56 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.80 5.78 (3) India OIS-2M 5.46 5.46 0 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.42 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.38 4.14 (24) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 0.7 0.5 (0.2) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (1.2) 270.7 271.8 Debt 30.8 181.6 150.8 Equity (31.9) 89.1 121.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,058.1) 1,122.0 3,180.1 Debt (4,275.0) (660.2) 3,614.8 Equity 2,216.9 1,782.2 (434.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Sep and 16 Sep 2025
Oil prices moderated as demand concerns weighed on sentiments.
Fig 7 – Commodities
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.4 66.7 (1.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,644.3 3,685.3 1.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,868.9 9,924.1 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,940.8 2,939.9 0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,684.5 2,671.5 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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23 September 2025
Global markets assessed mixed comments from Fed officials. Several Fed officials including the St. Louis Fed President who is a voting member of the MPC, batted for a cautious approach to monetary easing given the risks to the inflation outlook. On the other hand, Fed’s Stephen Miran made the case for further lowering rates to an expected 2.75%-3% range by the end of the year. Against this backdrop, markets keenly await Fed Governor’s comments. Separately, flash PMI in Australia signalled a significant moderation in both services as well as manufacturing activity in Sep’25. In India, core sector output expanded by 6.3% in Aug’25 compared with a decline of 1.5% in Aug’24. This was led by a pickup in output of steel and coal. In India, liquidity registered usual seasonal deficit which is likely to be transitory.
Expect Hang Seng, other global indices edged up. Nikkei rose the most despite a hawkish nudge on future monetary policy. Hang Seng was weighed down by concerns over impact of Super Typhoon Ragasa. Sensex fell by 0.6%, led by technology stocks amidst growing fear over hike in H-1B visa fees by the US. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,315 46,382 0.1 S & P 500 6,664 6,694 0.4 FTSE 9,217 9,227 0.1 Nikkei 45,046 45,494 1.0 Hang Seng 26,545 26,344 (0.8) Shanghai Comp 3,820 3,829 0.2 Sensex 82,626 82,160 (0.6) Nifty 25,327 25,202 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies gained against a weaker dollar. DXY dipped by 0.3% as investors assessed comments from Fed officials. Amongst major currencies, EUR strengthened the most by 0.5%. INR remained under pressure tracking new US policies. It is trading further weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1746 1.1803 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3472 1.3514 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.95 147.72 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.10 88.32 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1182 7.1145 0.1 DXY Index 97.64 97.34 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields traded in narrow ranges. US 10Y yield inched up monitoring conflicting comments from Fed officials. While St. Louis Fed President hinted at limited room to cut rates; newly appointed Fed official (Stephen Miran) supported the case for aggressive cuts in policy rate. For India, 10Y yield closed stable. It is trading at 6.50% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.13 4.15 2 UK 4.72 4.71 0 Germany 2.75 2.75 0 Japan 1.65 1.65 1 China 1.80 1.79 (1) India 6.49 6.49 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.45 5.49 4 Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.56 0 Tbill-364 days 5.56 5.57 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.75 (2) India OIS-2M 5.46 5.46 0 India OIS-9M 5.42 5.42 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.14 4.14 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 0.5 (0.3) (0.8) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0.6 0.6 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-09-2025 19-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 270.7 333.2 62.5 Debt 181.6 205.4 23.8 Equity 89.1 127.8 38.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,058.1) 1,122.0 3,180.1 Debt (4,275.0) (660.2) 3,614.8 Equity 2,216.9 1,782.2 (434.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Sep and 16 Sep 2025
Oil prices moderated as Iraq exports picked pace.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 66.7 66.6 (0.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,685.3 3,746.7 1.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,924.1 9,900.1 (0.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,939.9 2,940.0 0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,671.5 2,645.0 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 September 2025
Fed Chair reiterated the need to exercise caution, even as he acknowledged the slowdown in labour market and “somewhat elevated” inflation. While the Fed Chair voted for a more balanced and data dependent approach, other Fed officials offered a much stronger opinion. Chicago Fed President stressed on the need to exercise caution on further rate cuts. In contrast, Fed’s Michelle Bowman suggested lowering rates to prevent the further weakness in labour market. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bps in the next two meeting. In terms of macro data, flash PMIs of major economies suggested moderation in economic activity in the UK, US and Japan. However, flash PMI in the Eurozone rose to a 16-month high, led services. In India, flash PMI continued to signal a healthy pace of expansion in economic activity, with the fall in export orders being offset by increase in domestic orders.
Except Japan, global indices moderated. Stocks in the US inched down tracking mixed comments from Fed officials and soft PMI data. Hang Seng fell the most as investors assessed the impact of Super Typhoon Ragasa. Sensex fell a tad by 0.1%, led by FMCG and consumer durable stocks. It is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Table 1 – Stock markets
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,382 46,293 (0.2) S & P 500 6,694 6,657 (0.6) FTSE 9,227 9,223 0 Nikkei 45,046 45,494 1.0 Hang Seng 26,344 26,159 (0.7) Shanghai Comp 3,829 3,822 (0.2) Sensex 82,160 82,102 (0.1) Nifty 25,202 25,170 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies gained against the dollar. Weakness in DXY persisted despite cautious comments from the Fed Chair. INR depreciated by 0.5% to a record low as US visa policies dented investor sentiments. It is trading marginally stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1803 1.1815 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3514 1.3526 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.72 147.64 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.32 88.76 (0.5) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1145 7.1132 0 DXY Index 97.34 97.26 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield softened as flash PMI came in lower than anticipated, signalling weakness in activity. UK’s 10Y yield also moderated tracking CBI trends data, showing loss of momentum of demand conditions. India’s 10Y yield softened monitoring RBI’s liquidity management operations. It is trading at 6.46% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.15 4.11 (4) UK 4.71 4.68 (3) Germany 2.75 2.75 0 Japan 1.65 1.65 0 China 1.79 1.80 1 India 6.49 6.47 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.49 5.47 (2) Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.55 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.57 5.56 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.75 0 India OIS-2M 5.46 5.45 (1) India OIS-9M 5.42 5.43 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.14 4.14 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) (0.3) (0.8) (0.5) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
19-09-2025 22-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 333.2 (227.9) (561.0) Debt 205.4 (4.2) (209.6) Equity 127.8 (223.7) (351.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,058.1) 1,122.0 3,180.1 Debt (4,275.0) (660.2) 3,614.8 Equity 2,216.9 1,782.2 (434.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Sep and 16 Sep 2025
Oil prices inched up tracking US President’s comments on Russia.
Table 7 – Commodities
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 66.6 67.6 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,746.7 3,764.0 0.5 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,900.1 9,901.4 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,940.0 2,931.7 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,645.0 2,638.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 September 2025
Global markets continued to trade sideways awaiting US PCE report. San Francisco Fed President supported the need for lowering rates further but added that some caution is warranted. Separately, US new home sales surged to an over 3-year high to 800,000 units, registering a steep increase of 20.5% in Aug’25. This has been attributed to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, Ifo’s business climate index for Germany dipped to 87.7 in Sep’25 from 88.9 in Aug’25, suggesting a softening economic momentum. In India, RBI’s monthly bulletin attested to the strength of domestic economic activity as visible in continued momentum in high-frequency indicators. It also noted that despite tariff related uncertainty, growth prospects are likely to improve in H2 driven by GST reforms, front loaded rate cuts, higher agricultural output and income tax reforms.
Global indices closed mixed. Stocks in the US moderated as Fed officials gave conflicting signals on future rate action. Among Asian stocks, Hang Seng showed upward correction. Shanghai Comp also inched up, led by optimism over AI spending. Sensex moderated by 0.5%, led by real estate stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading higher.
Table 1 – Stock markets
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,293 46,121 (0.4) S & P 500 6,657 6,638 (0.3) FTSE 9,223 9,250 0.3 Nikkei 45,494 45,630 0.3 Hang Seng 26,159 26,519 1.4 Shanghai Comp 3,822 3,854 0.8 Sensex 82,102 81,716 (0.5) Nifty 25,170 25,057 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies weakened. DXY rose by 0.6% ahead of release of PCE data. EUR depreciated by 0.7% amidst a decline in Germany’s business climate index (Ifo). INR recovered from a record low. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1815 1.1738 (0.7) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3526 1.3447 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.64 148.90 (0.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.76 88.70 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1132 7.1319 (0.3) DXY Index 97.26 97.87 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield rose as new home sales data unexpectedly picked pace. 10Y yield in UK, Germany and Japan remained range bound. In China, 10Y yield rose to its highest since past 6-months tracking comments of PBOC’s Deputy Governor on attractiveness of Chinese bonds. India’s 10Y yield inched up slightly and is trading at the same level today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.11 4.15 4 UK 4.68 4.67 (1) Germany 2.75 2.75 0 Japan 1.65 1.65 (1) China 1.80 1.91 10 India 6.47 6.49 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.47 5.46 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.57 2 Tbill-364 days 5.56 5.59 3 G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.75 0 India OIS-2M 5.45 5.45 0 India OIS-9M 5.43 5.43 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.14 4.12 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) (0.8) (0.3) 0.5 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
22-09-2025 23-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (227.9) (239.8) (12.0) Debt (4.2) 75.0 79.2 Equity (223.7) (314.9) (91.2) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,286.8) 638.0 1,924.8 Debt (1,900.7) (1,819.2) 81.5 Equity 613.9 2,457.2 1,843.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Sep and 22 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose amidst a drop in US inventories signalling buoyant demand.
Table 7 – Commodities
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.6 69.3 2.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,764.0 3,736.2 (0.7) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,901.4 10,305.1 4.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,931.7 2,997.6 2.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,638.0 2,651.5 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 September 2025
US President announced fresh tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals (100%), heavy trucks (25%) and certain household furniture items (30-50%). The tariffs which are set to take effect from 1 Oct 2025, are likely to unveil a fresh wave of uncertainty in the global financial markets after a brief period of consolidation. Separately, US GDP for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.8% from 3.3% earlier, denting some expectations of further rate cuts. Other macro data showed that new orders for non-defense capital goods increased by 0.6% in Aug’25 (0.8% in Jul’25), jobless claims dipped by 14,000 and trade deficit narrowed by 16.8% in Aug’25. In Germany, GfK’s consumer sentiment index is expected to improve to -22.3 in Oct’25 from -23.5 in Sep’25, lead by an increase in income expectations. In Japan, core inflation in Tokyo remained firmly above the BoJ’s target at 2.5% in Sep’25 (unchanged from Aug’25).
Barring Japan and China, other global indices closed lower. US stock fell as investors pared rate cut expectations on the back of better-than-expected macro data. Sensex fell amidst profit booking, led by decline in power and consumer durable stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian indices.
Table 1 – Stock markets
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,121 45,947 (0.4) S & P 500 6,638 6,605 (0.5) FTSE 9,250 9,214 (0.4) Nikkei 45,630 45,755 0.3 Hang Seng 26,519 26,485 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,854 3,853 (0.0) Sensex 81,716 81,160 (0.7) Nifty 25,057 24,891 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY strengthened by 0.7% on economic optimism as US GDP was revised up. Barring INR and CNY, other currencies weakened. EUR depreciated even as GfK’s consumer sentiment index for Germany picked up. INR is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1738 1.1666 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3447 1.3345 (0.8) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.90 149.80 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.70 88.67 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1319 7.1339 0 DXY Index 97.87 98.55 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from China, other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield gained by 2bps as US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated, with the focus shifting towards PCE data. UK’s 10Y yield surged with the UK expected to be the second strongest economy in G7 (OECD). India’s 10Y yield inched up marginally and is trading at the same level today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.15 4.17 2 UK 4.67 4.76 9 Germany 2.75 2.77 2 Japan 1.65 1.65 0 China 1.91 1.89 (1) India 6.49 6.50 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.46 5.45 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.55 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.59 5.57 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.75 0 India OIS-2M 5.45 5.44 (1) India OIS-9M 5.43 5.43 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.12 4.13 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
23-09-2025 24-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (239.8) (362.5) (122.6) Debt 75.0 (152.0) (227.1) Equity (314.9) (210.4) 104.4 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 638.0 970.4 332.5 Debt (1,819.2) (1,153.4) 665.8 Equity 2,457.2 2,123.8 (333.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 22 Sep and 23 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose as Russia announced cuts to its diesel and gasoline exports.
Table 7 – Commodities
24-09-2025 25-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 69.3 69.4 0.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,736.2 3,749.4 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,305.1 10,228.0 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,997.6 2,980.4 (0.6) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,651.5 2,658.5 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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