Economic Weekly Wrap
29 Sep 2025 - 03 Oct 2025

In India, the Centre announced that it will borrow Rs 6.77 lakh crore in H2FY26, as part of its borrowing calendar. The share of borrowing includes Rs 10,000cr from sovereign green bonds along with securities of different tenure. Securities with maturities at 10Y (28.4%), 15Y (14.2%) and 5Y (13.3%) had the highest share in the total borrowing for H2. In H1FY26, the government borrowed Rs 7.36 lakh crore which is 52% of total borrowing target for the year. Separately, India’s flash composite PMI dropped marginally to 61.9 in Sep’25 from 63.2 in Aug’25, as the pace of increase in new orders moderated in both manufacturing and services sector. In the US, PCE inched up to 2.7% (from 2.6% in Jul’25) and core PCE rose at a similar pace at 2.9%, matching Jul’25 increase. Investors will track RBI’s policy and IIP data in India and RBA’s announcement this week.

Global indices closed mixed. US stocks rose as investors monitored inflation data which came in line with expectation. Hang Seng dropped the most with deep losses in tech stocks and amidst tariff uncertainty. Sensex closed lower, led by decline in consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian indices.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR and CNY, other global currencies strengthened. DXY fell by 0.4% as analysts continue to expect 2 more rate cuts by Fed this year, despite steady labour market and sticky core inflation. GBP and EUR gained the most. INR traded flat; however, it is trading stronger today, in line with Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except US, India (higher) and Japan (flat), 10Y yields fell elsewhere. In the US, yields tracked core PCE data and lower than estimated jobless claims, pointing towards resilient labour market. Germany’s bund yield fell even as ECB survey showed pick up in 1Y inflation expectations. India’s 10Y yield rose the most by 3bps, following rise in oil prices. It is trading stable at 6.52% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 22 Sep and 23 Sep 2025

Oil prices rose amidst rising tensions between US and Iran.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In China, official manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.8 in Sep’25 from 49.4 in Aug’25, even though it remained in the contractionary zone (6th straight month). The nonmanufacturing PMI slipped down to 50 from 50.3 in Aug’25. In contrast, private manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.2 from 50.1 in Aug’25. This was the fastest pace of expansion since Mar’25, supported by growing new orders and higher growth in production. Separately, in the US, the investors’ monitored the possibility of the US government shutdown as the policymakers have reached an impasse ahead of the looming timeline. The partial shutdown could have serious ramifications and could result in ceasing down the operation of the non-essential federal services and delays in other government projects. In India, IIP growth remained steady at 4% in Aug (4.3% in Jul’25), with improvement noted in both mining and electricity output.

Apart from Indian indices and Nikkei, other global indices closed higher. US stocks rose as investors monitored mixed commentary by Fed officials. Investors have priced in (89%) possibility of 25bps rate cut in the next meet. Sensex closed lower, with losses in IT related stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except INR, other global currencies ended higher. DXY fell by 0.3% on fears of a potential government shutdown. JPY rose the most by 0.6%. INR fell to a record low. It is however trading stronger today, in line with Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except India and China, other global yields inched up. Concerns over funding and a possible government shutdown in the US weighed on investor sentiments. While 10Y yield in US and Germany dropped by 4bps, in UK the decline was 5bps. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps, due to higher supply in H2. It is trading further higher at 6.55% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 Sep and 25 Sep 2025

Oil prices declined amidst growing concerns around surplus supply.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In India, non-food credit growth moderated to 9.9% in Aug’25 from 13.6% for the corresponding fortnight of the previous year. Slower pace of growth was noted for industries with deceleration noted in both large and medium industries. However, micro and small scale (20.9% vs 13.4%) industries registered a robust growth for the same period. For the retail sector, credit growth rose at a slower pace (11.8% vs 13.9%), with deceleration noted in housing, education and vehicle loans. However, the credit growth is expected to rebound sharply in H2FY26 on the back of rationalisation of GST rates, lower interest rates, along with tax cuts which will propel consumption. Separately, India’s fiscal deficit for Apr-Aug’25 period rose to Rs 5.9 lakh cr (Rs 4.3 lakh cr last year), reaching 38.1% of the FY26 target.

Barring Nikkei and Indian indices, other global indices closed higher. US stocks edged up, supported by early signals of strengthening labour market (jobs opening data). Sensex closed lower. However, it is trading higher today ahead of the RBI policy. Asian indices are also trading higher.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Barring INR and CNY, other global currencies rose. DXY fell by 0.1% as analysts await data on non-farm payrolls and gauge the impact of government shutdown on employment. JPY gained the most. INR remains near its all-time low, but is trading tad higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y was up a tad by 1bps as investors monitored prospects of government shutdown and tracked JOLTS data. India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps, even as oil prices remain lower. However, it is trading lower at 6.56% today, ahead of RBI decision today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 25 Sep and 26 Sep 2025

Oil prices fell further, led by concerns of higher supply (from OPEC+ and Iraq).

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

In US, private sector employment (ADP) report noted companies lost over 32,000 jobs, much higher than expected. Thereby raising concerns of weakness in labour market. Separately, Oil prices slid by 2% (lowest in 4-months) due to concerns of oversupply and ahead of the OPEC+ meet. In India, MPC maintained status quo on rate and stance but revised it growth (6.8%) and inflation projection (2.6%) for FY26. The slew of reforms announced in the policy for the banking sector is expected to propel credit growth. These included, applying the ECL framework, new risk based deposit insurance premium, along with easing down regulation norms related to investment. Separately, Cabinet has approved a range of schemes, these include 6- year central scheme with aim to improve self sufficiency in pulses production, with the outlay of Rs 11,440cr. Additionally MSP for rabi crops for the upcoming marketing season has been announced, with MSP for wheat (6.6%), barley (8.6%) and gram (3.9%) higher than last year.

Except FTSE, other global indices closed higher. US stocks rose as investors shrugged off the any concerns related to government shutdown. Sensex closed higher with gains in banking and real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today while Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Indian market was closed on 02-10-2025, Chinese market was closed on 01-10-2025

Barring INR and CNY, global currencies fell. DXY rose by 0.1% as labour market continues to show signs of weakness. GBP fell the most as fiscal woes resurface. INR rose, but is trading lower today, in line with Asian currencies.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Indian market was closed on 02-10-2025, Chinese market was closed on 01-10-2025

Except UK and Japan (higher), other global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y was down by 2bps as investors gauge the longevity and the impact of government shutdown. Private data shows hiring has fallen to lowest since 2009. India’s 10Y yield fell sharply by 6bps, tracking dovish commentary by RBI. Following global cues, it is trading further lower today at 6.51%.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Indian market was closed on 02-10-2025, Chinese market was closed on 01-10-2025

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 26 Sep and 29 Sep 2025

Oil prices fell by ~2% amidst supply concerns and easing geopolitical tensions.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research