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US consumer sentiment survey (University of Michigan) is pointing towards weakening confidence as the index fell to 55.4 in Sep’25 (est.: 58) from 58.2 in Aug’25, while inflation expectations remain sticky. 1yr inflation expectation was unchanged at 4.8%, but for 5-10yr period it rose to 3.9% (est.: 3.4%) from 3.5% earlier. US Fed is expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut later this week, to support faltering growth. Revised economic projections will throw light on future inflation trajectory and rate cut path. Separately in China, industrial production in Aug’25 eased to 5.2% (est.: 5.6%) from 5.7% in Jul’25. Retail sales growth also softened to 3.4% (est.: 3.8%) from 3.7%. FAI growth, proxy for investments, moderated to 0.5% between Jan-Aug’25 from 1.6% between Jan-Jul’25. Domestically, retail inflation came in at 2.1% in Aug’25 versus 1.6%.
Global indices closed mixed. Dow Jones ended lower as investors monitored data print (inflation and jobless claims) which raised stagflation concerns. Hang Sang surged by 1.2% with gains in property, finance and technology stocks. Sensex also advanced higher, supported by capital goods and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY remained steady as investors turned their focus towards Fed’s decision. Yen slipped ahead of the BoJ decision and amidst the ongoing political uncertainty. INR appreciated by 0.2% despite higher oil prices. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian peers are trading mixed.
Except China, other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 4bps, tracking inflation expectation results of University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, and awaiting Fed’s revised economic projections. UK 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps, eyeing no rate cut by BoE this week. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps and is trading flat today.
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 8 and 9 Sep 2025
Oil prices inched up, as US oil sector is signalling slowing growth.
In the upcoming days major central banks will be announcing their rate decisions. Currently all eyes are on expected 25bps policy rate cut by US Fed tomorrow. In contrast, BoE and BoJ are expected to maintain status quo. Investors in the UK more keenly await the annual decision on quantitative tightening that the central bank will announce. For the past 3 years, size of asset purchase has been reduced by £100bn (through letting bonds mature/actively selling of bonds). This is year, this amount is expected to be less, to reduce pressure on longer-end (30Y) yields. Other focus will be on US-UK $10bn trade deal which will focus on civil nuclear power, defence and technology sectors. Domestically, India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 26.5bn in Aug’25 from US$ 27.4bn in Jul’25, led by decline in imports.
Global stocks ended mixed. US indices closed higher as investors await Fed rate decision wherein 25bps cut is anticipated. Communication services and technology stocks advanced the most. In Asia, US-China trade negotiations lifted the market. Sensex edged down with losses in IT related and consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025
Global currencies ended stronger. DXY declined as the market awaits Fed decision and guidance on growth and labour market. GBP rose by 0.3% ahead of the CPI and BoE decision, which will be status quo. The interest rate differential is expected to favour the currency. INR appreciated by 0.1% and is trading further stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps, as investors await Fed’s rate cut guidance. UK 10Y yield fell the most, supported by recovery in demand and awaiting BoE’s decision on QT. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps, tracking rise in oil prices. Following global cues, it is trading lower at 6.49% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 and 11 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose further, led by heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Latest macro data from the US has surprised on the upside. Retail sales rose by 0.6% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% and were up from upwardly revised 0.6% in Jul’25. Core sales rose by 0.7% versus 0.5% last month. While a part of this could be on account of higher prices, the other part signals resilience in demand. Industrial production too inched up, by 0.1% in Aug’25 (est.: -0.1%) from a downwardly revised (-) 0.4% decline in Jul’25, supported by sectors such as mining and manufacturing (particularly motor vehicles & parts). Separately in Europe, jobless claims in the UK rose by 17.4k Aug’25 (est.: 20k), following 33.3k decline in Aug’25. In Germany, ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 37.3 points in Sep’25 from 34.7 in Aug’25, helped by improved future outlook, while current situation index fell further.
Global stocks ended mixed. US indices edged up as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s decisions. VIX (volatility index) rose to its highest level in a week’s time. Major sub-sectors within S&P 500 dropped, including utilities and real estate. Hang Seng inched up with gains in tech stocks. Sensex advanced and is trading higher today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Global currencies ended stronger. DXY declined further as a rate cut is anticipated with signs of further easing. EUR surged by 0.9% (4-year high) supported by strong data (German ZEW index and EU industrial output). INR appreciated by 0.2% surrounded by optimism around the ongoing US-India trade negotiations. It is trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 1bps, despite surprise rise in both retail sales and industrial production data. UK 10Y yield remained elevated awaiting BoE’s decision on QT. India’s 10Y yield ended flat, even as oil prices rose. Following global cues, it is trading lower at 6.48% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep 2025
Oil prices continue to inch up amidst rising geo-political tensions.
In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rate by 25bps to 4-4.25%. This was driven by slowing growth momentum and FOMC realising that “downside risks to employment have risen”. The statement also acknowledged that “Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated”. Fed Chair believes that companies have not passed on the full impact of tariffs as yet. Estimates for both PCE and Core PCE for CY26 were revised upwards to 2.6% (2.4% in Jun’25). Dot plot suggests 2 more rate cuts this year, but a more conservative outlook for next year (1-3 rate cuts). Separately, housing starts fell to 2.5 year low in Aug ’25 (-7% MoM), as market continues to struggle with excess inventory. In the UK, inflation remains elevated as CPI remained unchanged from Jul’25 at 3.8% in Aug’25, led by rise in food inflation
Barring S&P 500 and Nikkei, other global stocks ended higher. Investor monitored Fed’s 25bps rate cut decision. However, mixed commentary by Fed Chair on rate trajectory kept investors on edge. Hang Seng surged to a record high led by tech stocks. Sensex edged up with gains in capital good stocks. It is trading higher today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY recovered as investors monitored slightly hawkish commentary by Fed Chair. The EUR weakened as the inflation reading for Aug’25 was revised down to 2% (from 2.1% previously) and closer to the ECB target mark. INR appreciated amidst lower oil prices. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Barring US (higher) and Japan (flat), other global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y yield rose by 6bps, as Fed revised its inflation projection upward for next year and dot plot indicates more conservative rate cut scenario in CY26. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, as oil prices eased. However, tracking global cues, it is trading higher at 6.50% today.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 12 and 15 Sep 2025
Oil prices fell, as rise in US stockpiles has revived demand concerns.
Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 13 Sep 2025 fell by 33k to 231k (est.: 240k) from the previous week’s 264k. Continuing claims (4-week moving average) also fell by ~10k to 1.93mn (as of 6 Sep) from 1.94mn in the week before. This indicates that labour market is not slowing as much as anticipated, fuelling concerns regarding Fed’s future rate cut trajectory. Separately, in UK, in line with market expectations, BoE left rates unchanged at 4% as and Governor warned that “we're not out of the woods yet” as inflation remains elevated (3.8% in Aug’25) and is expected to peak at 4% in Sep’25. Analysts are now split between rate cut in Nov’25 or early next year. In Japan, as expected, BoJ maintained its policy rate steady at 0.5%, as it believes tariff related uncertainty remains, even as economy is recovering moderately and inflation is beginning to cool (2.7% in Aug’25 versus 3.1% in Jul’25).
Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global stocks ended higher. US indices closed at a record high after Fed delivered a 25bps cut. 7 out of 11, subindices under S&P 500 gained. Sensex rose with gains in IT and banking stocks. However, it is trading lower today while Asian stocks are trading higher.
Global currencies ended lower. DXY strengthened as a cautionary approach was noted in the commentary by Fed Chair. JPY weakened amidst ongoing political uncertainty, subdued macro print (lower core machinery order). INR depreciated despite lower oil prices. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Barring Japan (flat), other global 10Y yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps, tracking better than expected US jobless claims data. In the UK, 10Y yields were up by 5bps as BoE Governor remarks reconfirmed that inflation remains uncomfortably high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, following global cues amidst slightly hawkish Fed statement. It is trading flat today at 6.51%.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 and 16 Sep 2025
Oil prices continue to decline, as prospects of global demand remains weak.
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