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Economic Weekly Wrap
15 Sep 2025 - 19 Sep 2025

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  • 15 September 2025

    US consumer sentiment survey (University of Michigan) is pointing towards weakening confidence as the index fell to 55.4 in Sep’25 (est.: 58) from 58.2 in Aug’25, while inflation expectations remain sticky. 1yr inflation expectation was unchanged at 4.8%, but for 5-10yr period it rose to 3.9% (est.: 3.4%) from 3.5% earlier. US Fed is expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut later this week, to support faltering growth. Revised economic projections will throw light on future inflation trajectory and rate cut path. Separately in China, industrial production in Aug’25 eased to 5.2% (est.: 5.6%) from 5.7% in Jul’25. Retail sales growth also softened to 3.4% (est.: 3.8%) from 3.7%. FAI growth, proxy for investments, moderated to 0.5% between Jan-Aug’25 from 1.6% between Jan-Jul’25. Domestically, retail inflation came in at 2.1% in Aug’25 versus 1.6%.


    Global indices closed mixed. Dow Jones ended lower as investors monitored data print (inflation and jobless claims) which raised stagflation concerns. Hang Sang surged by 1.2% with gains in property, finance and technology stocks. Sensex also advanced higher, supported by capital goods and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones46,10845,834(0.6)
    S & P 5006,5876,5840
    FTSE9,2989,283(0.2)
    Nikkei44,37344,7680.9
    Hang Seng26,08626,3881.2
    Shanghai Comp3,8753,871(0.1)
    Sensex81,54981,9050.4
    Nifty25,00625,1140.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

    Global currencies ended mixed. DXY remained steady as investors turned their focus towards Fed’s decision. Yen slipped ahead of the BoJ decision and amidst the ongoing political uncertainty. INR appreciated by 0.2% despite higher oil prices. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian peers are trading mixed.


    Fig 2 – Currencies

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17341.17340
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35741.3556(0.1)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)147.21147.68(0.3)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)88.4488.280.2
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.11867.1250(0.1)
    DXY Index97.5397.550

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except China, other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 4bps, tracking inflation expectation results of University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, and awaiting Fed’s revised economic projections. UK 10Y yield rose the most by 7bps, eyeing no rate cut by BoE this week. Following global cues, India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps and is trading flat today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change, bps
    US4.024.064
    UK4.614.677
    Germany2.662.726
    Japan1.581.591
    China1.811.800
    India6.476.492

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.495.501
    Tbill-182 days5.615.643
    Tbill-364 days5.645.651
    G-Sec 2Y5.825.82(1)
    India OIS-2M5.445.451
    India OIS-9M5.435.441
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR4.394.412

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.92.6(0.3)
    Reverse Repo1.70(1.7)
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)603.7(344.3)(947.9)
    Debt93.742.5(51.2)
    Equity510.0(386.8)(896.7)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)511.1(5,406.3)(5,917.3)
    Debt34.1(5,093.9)(5,128.0)
    Equity477.0(312.4)(789.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 8 and 9 Sep 2025


    Oil prices inched up, as US oil sector is signalling slowing growth.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)66.467.00.9
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3,634.13,643.10.2
    Copper (US$/ MT)9,990.09,994.10
    Zinc (US$/MT)2,922.52,987.22.2
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,673.52,689.50.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 16 September 2025

    In the upcoming days major central banks will be announcing their rate decisions. Currently all eyes are on expected 25bps policy rate cut by US Fed tomorrow. In contrast, BoE and BoJ are expected to maintain status quo. Investors in the UK more keenly await the annual decision on quantitative tightening that the central bank will announce. For the past 3 years, size of asset purchase has been reduced by £100bn (through letting bonds mature/actively selling of bonds). This is year, this amount is expected to be less, to reduce pressure on longer-end (30Y) yields. Other focus will be on US-UK $10bn trade deal which will focus on civil nuclear power, defence and technology sectors. Domestically, India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 26.5bn in Aug’25 from US$ 27.4bn in Jul’25, led by decline in imports.


    Global stocks ended mixed. US indices closed higher as investors await Fed rate decision wherein 25bps cut is anticipated. Communication services and technology stocks advanced the most. In Asia, US-China trade negotiations lifted the market. Sensex edged down with losses in IT related and consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones45,83445,8830.1
    S & P 5006,5846,6150.5
    FTSE9,2839,277(0.1)
    Nikkei44,37344,7680.9
    Hang Seng26,38826,4470.2
    Shanghai Comp3,8713,861(0.3)
    Sensex81,90581,786(0.1)
    Nifty25,11425,069(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Global currencies ended stronger. DXY declined as the market awaits Fed decision and guidance on growth and labour market. GBP rose by 0.3% ahead of the CPI and BoE decision, which will be status quo. The interest rate differential is expected to favour the currency. INR appreciated by 0.1% and is trading further stronger today, in line with Asian peers.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17341.17610.2
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35561.35990.3
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)147.68147.400.2
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)88.2888.220.1
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.12507.11850.1
    DXY Index97.5597.30(0.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 3bps, as investors await Fed’s rate cut guidance. UK 10Y yield fell the most, supported by recovery in demand and awaiting BoE’s decision on QT. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps, tracking rise in oil prices. Following global cues, it is trading lower at 6.49% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change, bps
    US4.064.04(3)
    UK4.674.63(4)
    Germany2.722.69(2)
    Japan1.581.591
    China1.801.800
    India6.496.501

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.505.500
    Tbill-182 days5.645.60(4)
    Tbill-364 days5.655.64(1)
    G-Sec 2Y5.825.80(2)
    India OIS-2M5.455.450
    India OIS-9M5.445.450
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR4.414.421

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.61.9(0.7)
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      11-09-2025 12-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(344.3)387.9732.2
    Debt42.5272.1229.6
    Equity(386.8)115.8502.6
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)2,043.0(646.0)(2,689.0)
    Debt(64.8)(4,313.5)(4,248.7)
    Equity2,107.83,667.51,559.7

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 and 11 Sep 2025


    Oil prices rose further, led by heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)67.067.40.7
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3,643.13,679.01.0
    Copper (US$/ MT)9,994.110,124.61.3
    Zinc (US$/MT)2,987.23,005.80.6
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,689.52,700.50.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 17 September 2025

    Latest macro data from the US has surprised on the upside. Retail sales rose by 0.6% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% and were up from upwardly revised 0.6% in Jul’25. Core sales rose by 0.7% versus 0.5% last month. While a part of this could be on account of higher prices, the other part signals resilience in demand. Industrial production too inched up, by 0.1% in Aug’25 (est.: -0.1%) from a downwardly revised (-) 0.4% decline in Jul’25, supported by sectors such as mining and manufacturing (particularly motor vehicles & parts). Separately in Europe, jobless claims in the UK rose by 17.4k Aug’25 (est.: 20k), following 33.3k decline in Aug’25. In Germany, ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 37.3 points in Sep’25 from 34.7 in Aug’25, helped by improved future outlook, while current situation index fell further.


    Global stocks ended mixed. US indices edged up as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s decisions. VIX (volatility index) rose to its highest level in a week’s time. Major sub-sectors within S&P 500 dropped, including utilities and real estate. Hang Seng inched up with gains in tech stocks. Sensex advanced and is trading higher today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones45,88345,758(0.3)
    S & P 5006,6156,607(0.1)
    FTSE9,2779,196(0.9)
    Nikkei44,76844,9020.3
    Hang Seng26,44726,4390
    Shanghai Comp3,8613,8620
    Sensex81,78682,3810.7
    Nifty25,06925,2390.7

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Global currencies ended stronger. DXY declined further as a rate cut is anticipated with signs of further easing. EUR surged by 0.9% (4-year high) supported by strong data (German ZEW index and EU industrial output). INR appreciated by 0.2% surrounded by optimism around the ongoing US-India trade negotiations. It is trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.17611.18670.9
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35991.36470.4
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)147.40146.480.6
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)88.2288.060.2
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.11857.11430.1
    DXY Index97.3096.63(0.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell by 1bps, despite surprise rise in both retail sales and industrial production data. UK 10Y yield remained elevated awaiting BoE’s decision on QT. India’s 10Y yield ended flat, even as oil prices rose. Following global cues, it is trading lower at 6.48% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change, bps
    US4.044.03(1)
    UK4.634.641
    Germany2.692.690
    Japan1.591.601
    China1.801.79(1)
    India6.506.490

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Japan were closed on 15 Sep 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.505.49(1)
    Tbill-182 days5.605.59(1)
    Tbill-364 days5.645.62(2)
    G-Sec 2Y5.805.811
    India OIS-2M5.455.460
    India OIS-9M5.455.440
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR4.424.519

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)1.90.7(1.2)
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      12-09-2025 15-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)387.93.6(384.3)
    Debt272.141.8(230.3)
    Equity115.8(38.1)(154.0)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(646.0)(4,977.2)(4,331.2)
    Debt(4,313.5)(6,712.2)(2,398.7)
    Equity3,667.51,735.0(1,932.5)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 11 and 12 Sep 2025


    Oil prices continue to inch up amidst rising geo-political tensions.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)67.468.51.5
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3,679.03,690.00.3
    Copper (US$/ MT)10,124.610,067.2(0.6)
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,005.83,033.30.9
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,700.52,717.00.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 18 September 2025

    In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rate by 25bps to 4-4.25%. This was driven by slowing growth momentum and FOMC realising that “downside risks to employment have risen”. The statement also acknowledged that “Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated”. Fed Chair believes that companies have not passed on the full impact of tariffs as yet. Estimates for both PCE and Core PCE for CY26 were revised upwards to 2.6% (2.4% in Jun’25). Dot plot suggests 2 more rate cuts this year, but a more conservative outlook for next year (1-3 rate cuts). Separately, housing starts fell to 2.5 year low in Aug ’25 (-7% MoM), as market continues to struggle with excess inventory. In the UK, inflation remains elevated as CPI remained unchanged from Jul’25 at 3.8% in Aug’25, led by rise in food inflation

    Barring S&P 500 and Nikkei, other global stocks ended higher. Investor monitored Fed’s 25bps rate cut decision. However, mixed commentary by Fed Chair on rate trajectory kept investors on edge. Hang Seng surged to a record high led by tech stocks. Sensex edged up with gains in capital good stocks. It is trading higher today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.


    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones45,75846,0180.6
    S & P 5006,6076,600(0.1)
    FTSE9,1969,2080.1
    Nikkei44,90244,790(0.2)
    Hang Seng26,43926,9081.8
    Shanghai Comp3,8623,8760.4
    Sensex82,38182,6940.4
    Nifty25,23925,3300.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies ended mixed. DXY recovered as investors monitored slightly hawkish commentary by Fed Chair. The EUR weakened as the inflation reading for Aug’25 was revised down to 2% (from 2.1% previously) and closer to the ECB target mark. INR appreciated amidst lower oil prices. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.18671.1813(0.5)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.36471.3626(0.2)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)146.48146.99(0.3)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)88.0687.810.3
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.11437.10420.1
    DXY Index96.6396.870.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Barring US (higher) and Japan (flat), other global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y yield rose by 6bps, as Fed revised its inflation projection upward for next year and dot plot indicates more conservative rate cut scenario in CY26. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, as oil prices eased. However, tracking global cues, it is trading higher at 6.50% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change, bps
    US4.034.096
    UK4.644.63(1)
    Germany2.692.68(2)
    Japan1.601.600
    China1.791.77(2)
    India6.496.47(2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.495.490
    Tbill-182 days5.595.590
    Tbill-364 days5.625.620
    G-Sec 2Y5.815.79(1)
    India OIS-2M5.465.450
    India OIS-9M5.445.43(1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR4.514.39(12)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)0.70.6(0.1)
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      15-09-2025 16-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)3.6509.2505.6
    Debt41.8322.3280.6
    Equity(38.1)186.9225.0
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(4,977.2)(2,058.1)2,919.1
    Debt(6,712.2)(4,275.0)2,437.2
    Equity1,735.02,216.9481.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 12 and 15 Sep 2025


    Oil prices fell, as rise in US stockpiles has revived demand concerns.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)68.568.0(0.8)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3,690.03,659.9(0.8)
    Copper (US$/ MT)10,067.29,924.9(1.4)
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,033.32,967.9(2.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,717.02,683.0(1.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 19 September 2025

    Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 13 Sep 2025 fell by 33k to 231k (est.: 240k) from the previous week’s 264k. Continuing claims (4-week moving average) also fell by ~10k to 1.93mn (as of 6 Sep) from 1.94mn in the week before. This indicates that labour market is not slowing as much as anticipated, fuelling concerns regarding Fed’s future rate cut trajectory. Separately, in UK, in line with market expectations, BoE left rates unchanged at 4% as and Governor warned that “we're not out of the woods yet” as inflation remains elevated (3.8% in Aug’25) and is expected to peak at 4% in Sep’25. Analysts are now split between rate cut in Nov’25 or early next year. In Japan, as expected, BoJ maintained its policy rate steady at 0.5%, as it believes tariff related uncertainty remains, even as economy is recovering moderately and inflation is beginning to cool (2.7% in Aug’25 versus 3.1% in Jul’25).

    Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global stocks ended higher. US indices closed at a record high after Fed delivered a 25bps cut. 7 out of 11, subindices under S&P 500 gained. Sensex rose with gains in IT and banking stocks. However, it is trading lower today while Asian stocks are trading higher.


    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones46,01846,1420.3
    S & P 5006,6006,6320.5
    FTSE9,2089,2280.2
    Nikkei44,79045,3031.1
    Hang Seng26,90826,545(1.4)
    Shanghai Comp3,8763,832(1.2)
    Sensex82,69483,0140.4
    Nifty25,33025,4240.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies ended lower. DXY strengthened as a cautionary approach was noted in the commentary by Fed Chair. JPY weakened amidst ongoing political uncertainty, subdued macro print (lower core machinery order). INR depreciated despite lower oil prices. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.18131.1788(0.2)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.36261.3555(0.5)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)146.99148.00(0.7)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)87.8188.13(0.4)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.10427.1124(0.1)
    DXY Index96.8797.350.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Barring Japan (flat), other global 10Y yields closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps, tracking better than expected US jobless claims data. In the UK, 10Y yields were up by 5bps as BoE Governor remarks reconfirmed that inflation remains uncomfortably high. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, following global cues amidst slightly hawkish Fed statement. It is trading flat today at 6.51%.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change, bps
    US4.094.102
    UK4.634.685
    Germany2.682.735
    Japan1.601.600
    China1.771.781
    India6.476.514

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.495.45(4)
    Tbill-182 days5.595.57(2)
    Tbill-364 days5.625.57(5)
    G-Sec 2Y5.795.801
    India OIS-2M5.455.461
    India OIS-9M5.435.441
    SONIA int rate benchmark3.973.970
    US SOFR4.394.38(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)0.60.70.1
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      16-09-2025 17-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)509.2(1.2)(510.4)
    Debt322.330.8(291.6)
    Equity186.9(31.9)(218.8)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(2,058.1)1,122.03,180.1
    Debt(4,275.0)(660.2)3,614.8
    Equity2,216.91,782.2(434.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 and 16 Sep 2025


    Oil prices continue to decline, as prospects of global demand remains weak.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      17-09-2025 18-09-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)68.568.0(0.8)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3,690.03,659.9(0.8)
    Copper (US$/ MT)10,067.29,924.9(1.4)
    Zinc (US$/MT)3,033.32,967.9(2.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2,717.02,683.0(1.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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