Economic Weekly Wrap
09 Sep 2025 - 12 Sep 2025
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09 September 2025
Investor focus centred on political developments. French PM has lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly. This came in the wake of his stance on trimming down budget deficit to 4.6% in CY26. Elsewhere, investors monitored resignation of Japan’s PM. Argentina’s mid-term election also showed major defeat for the Milei administration. Amongst major macro releases, China’s exports maintained some momentum led by higher shipments to EU and Japan outweighing the decline in exports to the US. Germany’s industrial production remained upbeat. Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised upward to 2.2% from 1% earlier, led by firming up of private consumption demand. On domestic front, Finance Minister assured that fiscal consolidation will be on its path, and the new indirect rate is expected to spur consumption demand and improve revenue buoyancy of the economy.
Global stocks ended higher on growing expectations of a Fed rate cut. Stocks in the US rose, even as investors remained watchful of the CPI data. Nikkei surged the most, as investors anticipate fresh fiscal stimulus. Technology shares advanced the most. Sensex ended higher as auto stocks rallied sharply. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
05-09-2025 08-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,401 45,515 0.3 S & P 500 6,482 6,495 0.2 FTSE 9,208 9,221 0.1 Nikkei 43,019 43,644 1.5 Hang Seng 25,418 25,634 0.8 Shanghai Comp 3,813 3,827 0.4 Sensex 80,711 80,787 0.1 Nifty 24,741 24,773 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY dipped by 0.3% on Fed rate cut expectations. Despite political uncertainty, EUR strengthened by 0.4%. On the other hand, JPY was marginally weaker tracking the resignation of PM Ishiba. INR is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
05-09-2025 08-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1717 1.1763 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3509 1.3545 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.43 147.50 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.15 88.27 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1328 7.1298 0 DXY Index 97.77 97.45 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Except China (tad higher), global yields softened. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most monitoring weak pay growth data. US 10Y yield also moderated albeit firming up of NY Fed inflation expectations data. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps in the earlier trading session as GST rate cut has boosted confidence. It is trading further lower at 6.45% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
05-09-2025 08-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.07 4.04 (3) UK 4.65 4.61 (4) Germany 2.66 2.64 (2) Japan 1.58 1.57 (1) China 1.78 1.79 1 India 6.49 6.47 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
04-09-2025 05-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.50 5.50 0 Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.65 5.65 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.83 5.82 (1) India OIS-2M 5.47 5.48 1 India OIS-9M 5.47 5.46 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.41 4.42 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
05-09-2025 08-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 2.9 0 Reverse Repo 1.7 1.5 (0.2) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (89.3) (46.8) 42.5 Debt 17.2 31.0 13.8 Equity (106.5) (77.7) 28.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 839.9 (3,906.8) (4,746.7) Debt (2,439.9) (4,580.3) (2,140.4) Equity 3,279.8 673.5 (2,606.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 and 2 Sep 2025
Oil prices edged up as OPEC+ announced a lower-than-expected output hike.
Fig 7 – Commodities
05-09-2025 08-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 65.5 66.0 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,586.7 3,636.0 1.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,829.5 9,833.9 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,883.4 2,893.0 0.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,600.5 2,617.5 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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10 September 2025
Global markets remained upbeat with risk-on sentiment gaining ground ahead of Fed policy decision. The non-farm payroll data for Mar’25 has also been revised downward for the 3rd consecutive time. The upcoming inflation data is also expected to show loss of momentum. Thus, it builds up case for faster pace of easing by Fed in the near term. Elsewhere, in Taiwan, exports rose at a faster pace than anticipated led by firm demand for AI-related products and integrated circuits. In China, PPI remained in negative territory at -2.9%, YoY, in Aug’25, for 35th month in a row. CPI on the other hand, slipped into deflation at -0.4%, YoY, for the first time in past three months. On domestic front, all eyes will be on the inflation data (BoB est.: 2%). Other development could be some optimism on tariff related front as US President hinted that the negotiations with India will continue.
Global stocks ended mixed. US stocks continued their rally with both S&P 500 and Dow Jones touching a record high. Downard revision in US payrolls further fuelled bets of a Fed rate cut. On the other hand, a stronger yen weighed on Nikkei. Sensex rose by 0.4% supported by a strong uptick in tech shares. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
08-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,515 45,711 0.4 S & P 500 6,495 6,513 0.3 FTSE 9,221 9,243 0.2 Nikkei 43,644 43,459 (0.4) Hang Seng 25,634 25,938 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,827 3,807 (0.5) Sensex 80,787 81,101 0.4 Nifty 24,773 24,869 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY rose by 0.3%, as investors await US inflation report. Higher yields also supported the dollar. INR rose by 0.2% supported by hopes of resumption of US trade talks. It is however trading weaker today on reports of fresh US sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
08-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1763 1.1708 (0.5) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3545 1.3528 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.50 147.41 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.27 88.11 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1298 7.1238 0.1 DXY Index 97.45 97.79 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Barring Japan (stable), global yields inched up as risk on sentiments prevailed amidst expectation of easy liquidity conditions. This has boosted equity flows instead of the safe-haven demand for sovereign debt class. US 10Y yield rose the most as uncertainty reigned over central bank’s independence. India’s 10Y yield rose by 3bps. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
08-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.04 4.09 5 UK 4.61 4.62 2 Germany 2.64 2.66 2 Japan 1.57 1.57 0 China 1.79 1.80 1 India 6.47 6.49 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
08-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.50 5.47 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.57 (4) Tbill-364 days 5.65 5.61 (4) G-Sec 2Y 5.82 5.82 1 India OIS-2M 5.48 5.48 0 India OIS-9M 5.46 5.45 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.42 4.40 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
05-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 2.7 (0.2) Reverse Repo 1.5 1.5 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO | Note: Markets in India were closed on 8 Sep 2025
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (46.8) (111.7) (64.9) Debt 31.0 (91.8) (122.7) Equity (77.7) (19.9) 57.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (3,906.8) (4,746.7) (839.9) Debt (4,580.3) (2,140.4) (2,439.9) Equity 673.5 (2,606.3) (3,279.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 and 2 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose amidst reports of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil.
Fig 7 – Commodities
08-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 66.0 66.4 0.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,636.0 3,626.6 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,833.9 9,836.0 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,893.0 2,873.6 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,617.5 2,622.5 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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11 September 2025
Among major macro releases has been the US PPI data which declined sequentially by -0.1%, in Aug’25, for the first time in past four months. This coupled with downward revision of payroll data might hint at an outsized rate cut by Fed. It should be noted that PPI lost steam albeit higher input costs on account of elevated tariff rates. So, producers are not yet passing on the price effect to consumers. In Japan as well PPI lost momentum. In UK, housing market showed signs of stress as reflected in the house price data. Amidst other global developments have been the ruling of US District Court over Fed’s independence. The Senate Banking Committee on the other hand has advanced the nomination by US President of Stephen Miran, thus again raising questions on Fed’s independence. On domestic front, India-EU trade deal is closely looked after, hinting at further diversification of trade relations.
Except FTSE and Dow Jones, other global indices ended higher. A benign US PPI reading has led investors to scale up bets of Fed rate cuts. In the US, S&P 500 surged to a fresh high driven by gains in tech stocks. In Asia, Hang Seng led the gains, rising by 1%. Sensex inched up further as tech and real estate stocks rose. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,711 45,491 (0.5) S & P 500 6,513 6,532 0.3 FTSE 9,243 9,225 (0.2) Nikkei 43,459 43,838 0.9 Hang Seng 25,938 26,200 1.0 Shanghai Comp 3,807 3,812 0.1 Sensex 81,101 81,425 0.4 Nifty 24,869 24,973 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies traded in narrow ranges as focus remained on US inflation data which will set the tone for the Fed policy. DXY ended flat after a weak PPI report. Barring EUR, other currencies ended broadly stable. INR too was rangebound. It is however trading weaker today, in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1708 1.1695 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3528 1.3529 0 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.41 147.46 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.11 88.10 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1238 7.1210 0 DXY Index 97.79 97.78 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except US, global 10Y yields traded in narrow ranges. In the US, it fell by 4bps as softening PPI data further raised hopes of an easier monetary policy approach by Fed. India’s 10Y yield softened a tad. It is trading at the same level today and might see some moderation post inflation data.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.09 4.05 (4) UK 4.62 4.63 1 Germany 2.66 2.65 (1) Japan 1.57 1.57 0 China 1.80 1.82 2 India 6.49 6.48 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.47 5.50 3 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.61 4 Tbill-364 days 5.61 5.65 4 G-Sec 2Y 5.82 5.84 1 India OIS-2M 5.48 5.47 (1) India OIS-9M 5.45 5.44 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.40 4.40 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.7 2.6 (0.1) Reverse Repo 1.5 1.5 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
04-09-2025 09-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (111.7) 77.3 189.0 Debt (91.8) 12.6 104.3 Equity (19.9) 64.8 84.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 327.8 (304.2) (632.0) Debt (810.3) 0 810.3 Equity 1,138.1 (304.2) (1,442.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 5 and 8 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose by over 1% tracking geo-political tensions.
Fig 7 – Commodities
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 66.4 67.5 1.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,626.6 3,640.8 0.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,836.0 9,956.4 1.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,873.6 2,909.5 1.2 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,622.5 2,625.0 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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12 September 2025
Global markets monitored major macro releases in the US. The CPI data showed higher sequential momentum than expected (0.4%, MoM and 2.9%, YoY). The headline numbers are reflective of stickiness in prices amidst elevated tariff rates. Core on the other hand remained in line with expectation (0.3%, MoM and 3.1%, YoY). The labour market conditions weakened with rise in initial jobless claims to 263K, for the week ending 6 Sep (prior level: 237K). Thus, concerns over labour market are likely to outweigh some build-up in inflation for Fed. This is also reflected in the higher probability attached to 25bps rate, as per CME Fedwatch data. Elsewhere, ECB Governing Council signalled status quo in rates for some time. On domestic front, CPI data will be closely watched.
Except Hong Kong, stocks elsewhere ended higher. US stocks rose to a record high despite a mixed inflation reading. Investors continue to bet on Fed rate cut amidst signs of a slowdown in US labour market (jobless claims). In Asia, Nikkei surged on AI optimism. Sensex rose by 0.2% as oil and gas and power stocks inched up. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,491 46,108 1.4 S & P 500 6,532 6,587 0.8 FTSE 9,225 9,298 0.8 Nikkei 43,838 44,373 1.2 Hang Seng 26,200 26,086 (0.4) Shanghai Comp 3,812 3,875 1.7 Sensex 81,425 81,549 0.2 Nifty 24,973 25,006 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended stronger. DXY declined as US jobless claims remained elevated. EUR rose by 0.3% as ECB left rates unchanged and painted an upbeat picture of growth. INR depreciated by 0.4% to a record low due to strong dollar demand. It is however trading stronger today, in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1695 1.1734 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3529 1.3574 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.46 147.21 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.10 88.44 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1210 7.1186 0 DXY Index 97.78 97.53 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields traded mixed. UK 10Y yield softened by 3bps ahead of the monthly GDP data release. For the US, weak labour market data led to a fall in yields. In Germany, 10Y yield closed stable awaiting inflation data. For India, it fell a tad lower and is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.05 4.02 (2) UK 4.63 4.61 (3) Germany 2.65 2.66 0 Japan 1.57 1.58 1 China 1.82 1.81 (2) India 6.48 6.47 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.50 5.49 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.65 5.64 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.84 5.82 (1) India OIS-2M 5.47 5.44 (3) India OIS-9M 5.44 5.43 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.40 4.39 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.6 2.9 0.3 Reverse Repo 1.5 1.7 0.2 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
09-09-2025 10-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 77.3 603.7 526.3 Debt 12.6 93.7 81.1 Equity 64.8 510.0 445.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 511.1 (5,406.3) (5,917.3) Debt 34.1 (5,093.9) (5,128.0) Equity 477.0 (312.4) (789.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 8 and 9 Sep 2025
Oil prices dipped as IEA report hinted at possible oversupply.
Fig 7 – Commodities
10-09-2025 11-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.5 66.4 (1.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,640.8 3,634.1 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,956.4 9,990.0 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,909.5 2,922.5 0.4 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,625.0 2,673.5 1.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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