Economic Weekly Wrap
01 Sep 2025 - 05 Sep 2025
-
01 September 2025
US PCE, Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation measure remained steady, as it rose at the same pace as last year by 2.6% in Jul’25. Core PCE which excludes food and energy inched up by 2.9% in Jul’25 from 2.8% in Jun’25. The headline inflation came in line with expectations, investors are pricing in 87% chance of 25bps rate cut in Sep’25 meet. In India, GDP growth for Q1FY26 surprised positively as it rose by 7.8% (5-quarter high) led by broad based improvement across sectors, especially in manufacturing and services sector. The front loading of exports along with public investment boosted growth. Going ahead, even as the uncertainty looms over the impact of tariffs, upcoming GST reforms might offset some of those losses and boost consumption related sectors. In China, manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace as the index came in at 49.4 in Aug’25 from 49.3 in Jul’25. However, the nonmanufacturing PMI expanded at a faster pace to 50.3 from 50.1 in Jul’25.
Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global markets closed lower. Investors in US will turn their focus towards jobs report which might offer better read of the economy and rate trajectory. Sensex slipped lower with losses in real estate stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,637 45,545 (0.2) S & P 500 6,502 6,460 (0.6) FTSE 9,217 9,187 (0.3) Nikkei 42,829 42,718 (0.3) Hang Seng 24,999 25,078 0.3 Shanghai Comp 3,844 3,858 0.4 Sensex 80,081 79,810 (0.3) Nifty 24,501 24,427 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except EUR and CNY, other global currencies ended lower against the US$. DXY ended flat, as investors await labour market data. INR closed at its life-time low, given domestic (FPI outflows) and external (steady dollar) concerns. It is trading at similar levels even today, while other currencies are trading weaker.
Fig 2 – Currencies
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1683 1.1686 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3513 1.3504 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.93 147.05 (0.1) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.63 88.21 (0.6) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1307 7.1308 0 DXY Index 97.81 97.77 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China (lower), other global yields closed higher. US 10Y yield was up by 3bps, tracking rise in core PCE and inflation expectations (University of Michigan survey). German yields reacted to slight pick-up in Aug’25 CPI. India’s 10Y yield was up by 3bps, tracking global cues. It is trading higher at 6.60% today, as muted demand from institutional buyers remains a concern.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change, bps US 4.20 4.23 3 UK 4.70 4.72 2 Germany 2.70 2.72 3 Japan 1.62 1.60 (2) China 1.79 1.79 (1) India 6.53 6.57 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.50 5.48 (2) Tbill-182 days 5.59 5.58 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.60 5.59 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.84 5.83 0 India OIS-2M 5.50 5.52 2 India OIS-9M 5.47 5.49 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.36 4.34 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.4 2.4 0 Reverse Repo 0.8 0 (0.8) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
26-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (748.2) (599.7) 148.5 Debt (104.3) 94.8 199.1 Equity (644.0) (694.6) (50.6) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (956.1) (1,053.2) (97.1) Debt (3,318.3) (969.1) 2,349.2 Equity 2,362.3 (84.1) (2,446.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 and 22 Aug 2025 | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Oil prices fell amidst subdued demand and expectation of higher supply.
Fig 7 – Commodities
28-08-2025 29-08-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.6 68.1 (0.7) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,417.1 3,448.0 0.9 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,735.2 9,821.7 0.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,777.7 2,825.1 1.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,605.0 2,615.5 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
03 September 2025
US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted at a slower pace of 48.7 in Aug’25 from 48 in Jul’25. The marginal improvement was on the back of rebound in new orders, though production registered a decline, in the wake of tariff turmoil. Separately in China, private services PMI expanded at faster pace (highest in 15-months) to 53 in Aug’25 (from 52.6 in Jul’25) supported by strong demand in domestic and foreign orders. In Europe, CPI inched up to 2.1% in Aug’25 from 2% in Jul’25. Service inflation softened to 3.1% from 3.2% in Jul’25. Core CPI remained steady at 2.3% and marginally above the expectation (2.2%). Since the inflation is nearing the ECB target mark, the Central Bank is expected to maintain status quo in Sep’25 meeting. Global bond yield faced extreme volatility with 30Y yield in Germany and France rising to near 15-year high, given the ongoing political turbulence in France. Concerns over Fed’s independence also made investors jittery.
Barring Nikkei, other global markets closed lower. US indices dropped amidst tariff concerns and rising bond yields. FTSE slipped by 0.9% amidst concerns around fiscal outlook. Sensex was down by 0.3% with losses in banking stocks. It is trading lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,545 45,296 (0.5) S & P 500 6,460 6,416 (0.7) FTSE 9,196 9,117 (0.9) Nikkei 42,189 42,310 0.3 Hang Seng 25,617 25,497 (0.5) Shanghai Comp 3,876 3,858 (0.4) Sensex 80,364 80,158 (0.3) Nifty 24,625 24,580 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 01 Sep 2025
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY jumped by 0.6%, tracking rise in bond yields and ISM manufacturing index. Yen was under pressure following news of weaker macro data. INR ended broadly stable. However, it is trading higher today, while other currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1711 1.1640 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3545 1.3394 (1.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.18 148.36 (0.8) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.20 88.16 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1377 7.1383 0 DXY Index 97.77 98.40 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 01 Sep 2025
Except INR and CNY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY jumped by 0.6%, tracking rise in bond yields and ISM manufacturing index. Yen was under pressure following news of weaker macro data. INR ended broadly stable. However, it is trading higher today, while other currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.23 4.26 3 UK 4.75 4.80 5 Germany 2.75 2.79 4 Japan 1.63 1.62 (1) China 1.78 1.77 (1) India 6.59 6.57 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 01 Sep 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.48 5.49 1 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.57 0 Tbill-364 days 5.62 5.61 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.85 5.85 (1) India OIS-2M 5.53 5.52 (1) India OIS-9M 5.51 5.52 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.34 4.34 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 01 Sep 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 3.0 0.1 Reverse Repo 1.4 1.9 0.5 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-08-2025 01-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (811.4) (157.5) 653.9 Debt 211.1 29.7 (181.5) Equity (1,022.5) (187.2) 835.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,178.6 (534.7) (3,713.3) Debt (3,235.2) (1,083.0) 2,152.2 Equity 6,413.7 548.3 (5,865.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 Aug and 1 Sep 2025
Oil prices rose, amidst news of renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Fig 7 – Commodities
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.2 69.1 1.5 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,476.1 3,533.2 1.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,797.7 9,910.9 1.2 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,847.5 2,885.4 1.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,611.0 2,619.0 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
04 September 2025
In India, GST council approved the two-tier system, revamping the tax structure. In addition to the major goods being part of the 5% and 18% slab, new system would also include 40% slab for ‘sin goods’. These will be levied on luxury items such as yachts, large cars and also on aerated beverages and tobacco. There will be zero rate on insurance policies which is positive for health sector. GST rate on daily items have been lowered from 12% and 18% to 5%, thereby making these items cheaper. The rates will be effective form 22nd Sep and is expected to boost the consumption sector. The net fiscal impact of this overhaul is expected to be around Rs 48,000 cr. Separately, India’s services PMI surged to 15-year high to 62.9 in Aug’25 from 60.5 in Jul’25. This was on the back of the expansion in new business and supported by strong demand. In US, job openings dropped by 176,000 to 7.1mn (10-month low). The Fed Beige report highlighted sluggishness in the economy due to tariffs.
Global markets closed mixed. S&P 500 inched up as investors turned hopeful of Fed reducing rates in upcoming meeting. Amongst other indices, Shanghai Comp, dropped the most. Sensex rebounded with strong gains in metal stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,296 45,271 (0.1) S & P 500 6,416 6,448 0.5 FTSE 9,117 9,178 0.7 Nikkei 42,310 41,939 (0.9) Hang Seng 25,497 25,343 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,858 3,814 (1.2) Sensex 80,158 80,568 0.5 Nifty 24,580 24,715 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring CNY, other currencies closed higher. DXY fell by 0.3%, tracking weak labour market data. GBP rose by 0.4%, driven by higher services PMI and awaiting BoE’s annual decision on adjustments to its QE program. INR rose by 0.1%, and is trading even higher today, while other currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1640 1.1662 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3394 1.3444 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.36 148.10 0.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.16 88.07 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1383 7.1421 (0.1) DXY Index 98.40 98.14 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan, 10Y yields closed lower elsewhere. Yields in Europe and US fell the most. US treasury yield was impacted by fewer than expected job openings (JOLTS data) and sustained weakness in factory orders. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, helped by dip in oil prices. It is trading further lower today at 6.52%, amidst resurgence in FPI buying.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.26 4.22 (4) UK 4.80 4.75 (5) Germany 2.79 2.74 (5) Japan 1.62 1.63 1 China 1.77 1.75 (2) India 6.57 6.54 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.49 5.50 1 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.61 4 Tbill-364 days 5.61 5.65 4 G-Sec 2Y 5.85 5.84 0 India OIS-2M 5.52 5.51 (1) India OIS-9M 5.52 5.50 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.34 4.39 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.0 3.0 0 Reverse Repo 1.9 1.7 (0.2) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
01-09-2025 02-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (157.5) (89.3) 68.2 Debt 29.7 17.2 (12.5) Equity (187.2) (106.5) 80.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,178.6 839.9 (2,338.7) Debt (3,235.2) (2,439.9) 795.2 Equity 6,413.7 3,279.8 (3,134.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 Aug and 1 Sep 2025
Oil prices slid as OPEC+ is considering another output hike.
Fig 7 – Commodities
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 69.1 67.6 (2.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,533.2 3,559.4 0.7 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,910.9 9,908.6 0 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,885.4 2,879.8 (0.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,619.0 2,619.0 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
-
05 September 2025
In the US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237k (for the week ending 30-Aug), highest level since Jun’25 and from 229k a week earlier. The continuing claims were marginally lower at 1.94mn in the week though 23-Aug. The softness in the labour market was further reiterated by the private payrolls data. ADP employment report noted, private employment increased by only 54k from 106k in Jul’25. This comes ahead of the monthly jobs report which is expected to provide some more guidance on rate trajectory. US ISM services PMI surpassed expectations and climbed to 52 level mark in Aug from 50.1 in Jul’25, with gains in new orders. Separately on tariff front, US and Japan signed a trade deal in a move to strengthen bilateral trade relations. Tariffs on auto has been reduced down to 15% from 27.5% earlier. The executive order has confirmed investment commitment of US$ 550bn from Japan.
Barring Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp, other global markets closed higher. S&P 500 advanced to record high as investors have priced (95% chance) in a rate cut in Sep’25 meet. Nikkei, gained the most led by rally in real estate and banking stocks. Sensex inched up with news of GST rationalisation which lifted investor sentiments. It is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,271 45,621 0.8 S & P 500 6,448 6,502 0.8 FTSE 9,178 9,217 0.4 Nikkei 41,939 42,580 1.5 Hang Seng 25,343 25,059 (1.1) Shanghai Comp 3,814 3,766 (1.3) Sensex 80,568 80,718 0.2 Nifty 24,715 24,734 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other currencies closed lower. DXY rose by 0.2%, supported by rise in equity markets. Macro data showing improved productivity and lower labour cost also helped. INR fell by 0.1%, even as oil prices remain weak. It is trading even lower today, while other currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1662 1.1649 (0.1) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3444 1.3434 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.10 148.49 (0.3) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.07 88.15 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1421 7.1416 0 DXY Index 98.14 98.35 0.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China, 10Y yields closed lower elsewhere. US 10Y yield fell the most tracking weak labour market data (jobless claims, private payrolls). Yields in UK and Japan have undergone correction, with some revival in demand. India’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps, helped by continued decline in oil prices. It is trading further lower today at 6.48%, noting smaller than expected impact of GST rate cuts.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change, bps US 4.22 4.16 (6) UK 4.75 4.72 (3) Germany 2.74 2.72 (2) Japan 1.63 1.60 (3) China 1.75 1.76 1 India 6.54 6.49 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.50 5.50 0 Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.65 5.65 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.84 5.83 (1) India OIS-2M 5.51 5.47 (4) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.47 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.39 4.39 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.0 2.9 (0.1) Reverse Repo 1.7 0 (1.7) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
02-09-2025 03-09-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (89.3) (46.8) 42.5 Debt 17.2 31.0 13.8 Equity (106.5) (77.7) 28.7 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 839.9 (3,906.8) (4,746.7) Debt (2,439.9) (4,580.3) (2,140.4) Equity 3,279.8 673.5 (2,606.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 1 Sep and 2 Sep 2025
Oil prices slid further, following news of surprise rise in US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
03-09-2025 04-09-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.6 67.0 (0.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,559.4 3,545.9 (0.4) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,908.6 9,830.8 (0.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,879.8 2,859.7 (0.7) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,619.0 2,591.5 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
@2025 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved
Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities of any entity. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Bank of Baroda Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/ or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render Bank of Baroda Group liable in any manner whatsoever & Bank of Baroda Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time
Connect with Us
For further details about this publication, please contact:
Economics Research Department
Bank of Baroda
+91 22 6698 5794
chief.economist@bankofbaroda.bank.in
Popular Articles
Related Articles
-
Disclaimer
The contents of this article/infographic/picture/video are meant solely for information purposes and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. The contents are generic in nature and for informational purposes only. It is not a substitute for specific advice in your own circumstances. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. The information is subject to updation, completion, revision, verification and amendment and the same may change materially. The information is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Bank of Baroda or its affiliates to any licensing or registration requirements. Bank of Baroda shall not be responsible for any direct/indirect loss or liability incurred by the reader for taking any financial decisions based on the contents and information mentioned. Please consult your financial advisor before making any financial decision.
