Economic Weekly Wrap
25 Aug 2025 - 29 Aug 2025
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25 August 2025
In a widely anticipated address, Fed Chair opened the room for a possible rate cut in Sep’25, citing weakening labour market conditions. Even so, he acknowledged the risks to inflation from tariff related uncertainty. Probability of a 25bps rate cut in the Fed’s Sep’25 meeting currently hover around 80%. Focus will remain on this week’s PCE report, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, which will shed more light on domestic price pressures. Separately, Bank of Japan’s Governor stated that wage costs are likely to continue rising amidst labour shortages. This has increased expectations that the BoJ is likely to resume its rate hike cycle. On the domestic front, investors are likely to keep a close eye on US tariff developments ahead of the looming deadline.
Except India, other global indices ended higher as Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut. Stocks in the US rose the most, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rising by over 1%. Focus will remain on earnings report by a major US tech giant. Amongst other markets, Shanghai Comp rose by 1.4%, led by a rally in semi-conductor stocks. Stock markets in India ended in red, as metal and banking stocks declined.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 44,786 45,632 1.9 S & P 500 6,370 6,467 1.5 FTSE 9,309 9,321 0.1 Nikkei 42,610 42,633 0.1 Hang Seng 25,105 25,339 0.9 Shanghai Comp 3,771 3,826 1.4 Sensex 82,001 81,307 (0.8) Nifty 25,084 24,870 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR, other global currencies ended stronger as the dollar weakened. DXY dipped as Fed Chair hinted at a rate cut. Amongst major currencies both EUR and JPY strengthened by 1%. INR depreciated, tracking losses in domestic equities. It is however trading stronger today in line with Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1606 1.1718 1.0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3412 1.3525 0.8 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 148.37 146.94 1.0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.26 87.53 (0.3) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1805 7.1675 0.2 DXY Index 98.62 97.72 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
10Y yield in major AEs dipped, with the US declining at the sharpest pace. This is on the back of increased rate cut bets amongst traders, following Fed Chair’s speech. Elsewhere in Japan and China, 10Y yield traded in a narrow range. India’s 10Y yield rose a tad tracking auction results. It is trading at the same level today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change, bps US 4.33 4.25 (7) UK 4.73 4.69 (4) Germany 2.76 2.72 (4) Japan 1.61 1.63 1 China 1.77 1.79 2 India 6.53 6.55 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.46 5.46 0 Tbill-182 days 5.55 5.56 1 Tbill-364 days 5.58 5.59 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.83 5.81 (3) India OIS-2M 5.50 5.50 0 India OIS-9M 5.49 5.49 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.32 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.2 2.2 0 Reverse Repo 1.8 0 (1.8) Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-08-2025 21-08-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 75.4 (83.4) (158.8) Debt 109.6 (18.7) (128.3) Equity (34.2) (64.7) (30.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,503.6 (795.9) (2,299.5) Debt (261.6) (1,888.1) (1,626.5) Equity 1,765.2 1,092.2 (673.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Aug and 20 Aug 2025
Oil prices ended flat tracking developments on Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Fig 7 – Commodities
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.7 67.7 0.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,338.7 3,371.9 1.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,643.5 9,718.1 0.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,758.0 2,815.1 2.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,585.0 2,624.5 1.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 August 2025
Germany’s IFO business climate index rose to 89 mark (highest level since May’24) in Aug’25 from 88.6 in Jul’25. Despite the improvement, the overall economic outlook remains weak as analysts expect the economic recovery at a much slower pace. Investors this week will keep a close watch on US PCE, which is Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation and will offer more guidance on rate trajectory. Fed Chair had recently raised expectation of rate cut in his remarks. Investors have already priced in a rate cut in Sep’25 meeting. Separately, concerns around Fed’s independence came back to the fore as US President announced the removal of Fed Governor. On tariff front, US President warned of levying ‘200%’ tariffs on China if exports of rare earth magnets are curbed.
Barring US, other global indices advanced higher. US indices slid from a record high after a rally which was fuelled by rate cut expectations. S&P 500 was down as 9 out of 11 sectors reported a dip. Investors turned their focus towards earnings update and key macro releases. Hang extended its gains and surged by almost 2% amidst a rally in property stocks. Sensex rebounded with gains in IT stocks. However, it is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,632 45,282 (0.8) S & P 500 6,467 6,439 (0.4) FTSE 9,309 9,321 0.1 Nikkei 42,633 42,808 0.4 Hang Seng 25,339 25,830 1.9 Shanghai Comp 3,826 3,884 1.5 Sensex 81,307 81,636 0.4 Nifty 24,870 24,968 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: UK’s market was closed on 25.8.2025
Global currencies broadly closed lower as DXY firmed up. EUR depreciated the most followed by JPY and GBP. The reigning concerns over Fed’s independence has weighed on dollar. INR too depreciated tracking FII outflows. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1718 1.1618 (0.9) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3525 1.3455 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.94 147.80 (0.6) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.53 87.58 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1675 7.1536 0.2 DXY Index 97.72 98.43 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. Germany’s 10Y yield has risen the most as IFO business climate data improved. US 10Y yield rose by 2bps awaiting the core PCE data for cues on inflation. China’s 10Y yield on the other hand fell by 2bps as tariff-related uncertainty looms. India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps as government has announced reissue of two securities worth Rs 320bn. It is trading at 6.62%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change, bps US 4.25 4.28 2 UK 4.69 4.69 0 Germany 2.72 2.76 4 Japan 1.63 1.62 0 China 1.79 1.77 (2) India 6.55 6.60 5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.46 5.48 2 Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.57 1 Tbill-364 days 5.59 5.59 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.81 5.86 6 India OIS-2M 5.50 5.50 0 India OIS-9M 5.49 5.49 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.32 4.36 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.2 1.8 (0.4) Reverse Repo 0 0.8 0.8 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
21-08-2025 22-08-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (83.4) (139.0) (55.6) Debt (18.7) (177.9) (159.2) Equity (64.7) 38.9 103.6 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (795.9) (795.9) (2,299.5) Debt (1,888.1) (1,888.1) (1,626.5) Equity 1,092.2 1,092.2 (673.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Aug and 20 Aug 2025
Oil prices ended higher amidst increased rate cut expectation by Fed.
Fig 7 – Commodities
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.7 68.8 1.6 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,371.9 3,365.9 (0.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 9,643.5 9,718.1 0.8 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,758.0 2,815.1 2.1 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,585.0 2,624.5 1.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 August 2025
Investor focus remains on US core PCE data scheduled to be released today, even as bets of a rate cut in Sep’25 have solidified. While the core PCE is expected to have picked up marginally to 2.9% from 2.8% in Jun’25, markets have ramped up the possibility of a rate cut. This was further supported by dovish comments from New York Fed Chair. Separately, industrial profits in China declined at a slower pace of 1.5% in Jul’25, following a 4.3% drop in Jun’25. Bank of Korea held its policy rate steady at 2.5% for the second consecutive meeting, while upgrading its growth and inflation forecasts upwards to 0.9% (0.8%) and 2% (1.9%) respectively. In India, markets are expected to trade cautiously as investors assess the impact of additional 25% US tariffs exports which took effect from yesterday.
US indices edged up supported by a growing expectation of Fed rate cut in its upcoming policy. Positive macro data also lent support. Asian stocks largely fell. Shanghai Comp led the losses amidst muted growth in industrial profits. Sensex was dragged down by real estate stocks. It is trading further lower today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
26-08-2025 27-08-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,418 45,565 0.3 S & P 500 6,466 6,481 0.2 FTSE 9,266 9,256 (0.1) Nikkei 42,394 42,520 0.3 Hang Seng 25,525 25,202 (1.3) Shanghai Comp 3,868 3,800 (1.8) Sensex 81,636 80,787 (1.0) Nifty 24,968 24,712 (1.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Global currencies traded in narrow ranges as traders awaited the US PCE data. DXY, EUR, CNY and JPY ended flat. GBP ended marginally higher tracking a mixed retail sales report. INR depreciated a tad, ahead of the deadline of additional 25% US tariff. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
26-08-2025 27-08-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1642 1.1639 0 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3480 1.3498 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.40 147.42 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.58 87.68 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1528 7.1517 0 DXY Index 98.23 98.23 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
US 10Y yield moderated despite some discussion over independence of Fed. Moderation in Gfk’s consumer confidence index led to a drop in Germany’s 10Y yield by 2bps. Elsewhere, yields were largely stable. India’s 10Y yield closed at 6.6%. It is trading higher at 6.62% amidst negative sentiments over higher tariff rates.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
26-08-2025 27-08-2025 Change, bps US 4.26 4.23 (3) UK 4.74 4.74 0 Germany 2.72 2.70 (2) Japan 1.63 1.63 0 China 1.77 1.77 0 India 6.60 6.60 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
26-08-2025 27-08-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.48 5.46 (2) Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.57 0 Tbill-364 days 5.59 5.59 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.86 5.92 5 India OIS-2M 5.51 5.51 0 India OIS-9M 5.50 5.50 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.37 4.38 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
25-08-2025 26-08-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.8 1.9 0.1 Reverse Repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
22-08-2025 25-08-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (139.0) (91.4) 47.6 Debt (177.9) 86.5 264.4 Equity 38.9 (177.9) (216.8) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (956.1) (1,053.2) (97.1) Debt (3,318.3) (969.1) 2,349.2 Equity 2,362.3 (84.1) (2,446.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 21 Aug and 22 Aug 2025 | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Oil prices rose as US crude inventories fell more than expected.
Fig 7 – Commodities
26-08-2025 27-08-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.2 68.1 1.2 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,393.6 3,397.4 0.1 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,752.2 9,665.6 (0.9) Zinc (US$/MT) 2,808.9 2,753.9 (2.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,638.0 2,602.5 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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29 August 2025
US GDP growth for Q2 2025 was revised higher to 3.3% (est. 3.1%), versus 3% earlier. This largely reflected upward revisions to business and consumer spending. Separately, US jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 229,000 (est. 230,000). Fed Governor Waller came out in support of a 25bps rate cut in the next Fed meeting, while also opening the room for more rate cuts later in the year. In Japan, industrial production declined by 1.6% in Jul’25 (est. -1%), led by a sharp drop in auto production. Separately, growth in retail sales remained muted at 0.3% (est. 1.8%), suggesting continued stress in consumption. On the other hand, jobless rate declined to 2.3% from 2.5%, while core inflation in Tokyo eased to 2.5% from 2.9% earlier. In India, the RBI expressed confidence in the domestic economy activity, while noting the risks to growth due to US tariff policies. It expects inflation to remain well below the targeted 4% rate.
Global markets closed mixed. Better than expected US GDP print, led by stronger consumer spending, and corporate earnings report, boosted investor sentiments. Sensex was dragged down by tech, realty and power stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,565 45,637 0.2 S & P 500 6,481 6,502 0.3 FTSE 9,256 9,217 (0.4) Nikkei 42,520 42,829 0.7 Hang Seng 25,202 24,999 (0.8) Shanghai Comp 3,800 3,844 1.1 Sensex 80,787 80,081 (0.9) Nifty 24,712 24,501 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended higher tracking a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.4% on rising expectations of a rate cut. Despite a drop in Euro Area’s economic confidence index, EUR strengthened by 0.4%. INR closed marginally higher. However, it is trading weaker today, while other currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1639 1.1683 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3498 1.3513 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 147.42 146.93 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.68 87.63 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1517 7.1307 0.3 DXY Index 98.23 97.81 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except China (higher), other global yields fell. US 10Y yield was down by 3bps, as investors await PCE data-Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, to assess the future rate trajectory. India’s 10Y yield fell the most (7bps), even as oil prices inched up marginally. It is trading higher at 6.57% today, amidst uncertainty around the investor appetite in the weekly auction.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change, bps US 4.23 4.20 (3) UK 4.74 4.70 (4) Germany 2.70 2.70 (1) Japan 1.63 1.62 (1) China 1.77 1.79 2 India 6.60 6.53 (7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 4 – Short term rates
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.46 5.50 4 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.59 2 Tbill-364 days 5.59 5.60 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.92 5.84 (8) India OIS-2M 5.51 5.50 (1) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.47 (3) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.38 4.36 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 5 – Liquidity
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.9 2.4 0.5 Reverse Repo 0.8 0.8 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
25-08-2025 26-08-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (91.4) (748.2) (656.9) Debt 86.5 (104.3) (190.8) Equity (177.9) (644.0) (466.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (956.1) (1,053.2) (97.1) Debt (3,318.3) (969.1) 2,349.2 Equity 2,362.3 (84.1) (2,446.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Aug and 20 Aug 2025 | Note: Markets in India were closed on 27 Aug 2025
Oil prices rose tracking geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Fig 7 – Commodities
27-08-2025 28-08-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 68.1 68.6 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,397.4 3,417.1 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 9,665.6 9,735.2 0.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2,753.9 2,777.7 0.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,602.5 2,605.0 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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