Economic Weekly Wrap
23 June 2025 - 27 Jun 2025
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23 June 2025
Global markets remained cautious monitoring the flared up geopolitical tensions. In the latest development, Iranian Parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz where oil flow averaged 20mbpd in CY24, accounting nearly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Further, US has conducted airstrikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The repercussion was felt on Oil and DXY which firmed up by 2% and 0.4%, respectively. On macro front, UK’s core retail sales and consumer confidence posted downbeat readings. Elsewhere, public sector net borrowing remained at an elevated level. In Germany, PPI data remained in deflation. On monetary policy front, Fed officials gave diverge cues. Governor Waller spoke of a likely rate cut in Jul’25 while San Francisco and Richmond Fed President hinted at cautious approach. In India, markets will keep a close watch on the movement of oil prices.
Global indices closed mixed. Investors continued to monitor the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Mixed commentary by Fed official on rate trajectory also kept investors on the edge. Hang Seng rebounded amidst PBoC decision to keep rate steady with signals of economic recovery. Sensex accelerated with gains in real estate stocks. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,172 42,207 0.1 S & P 500 5,981 5,968 (0.2) FTSE 8,792 8,775 (0.2) Nikkei 38,488 38,403 (0.2) Hang Seng 23,238 23,530 1.3 Shanghai Comp 3,362 3,360 (0.1) Sensex 81,362 82,408 1.3 Nifty 24,793 25,112 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY weakened amidst dovish commentary by Fed official Waller, favouring rate cut. Demand for safe-haven assets was limited despite the persistent geopolitical tensions. INR appreciated as oil prices slipped. It is trading lower while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1495 1.1523 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3465 1.3451 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.45 146.09 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.73 86.59 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1878 7.1815 0.1 DXY Index 98.91 98.71 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields traded thinly. US 10Y yield softened amidst expectation of monetary easing. In Japan as well, 10Y yield moderated albeit inching up of inflation data. In UK, 10Y yield edged up a tad as public sector borrowing remained sticky. In India, 10Y yield was stable. The benchmark security is trading at 6.33% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.39 4.38 (2) UK 4.53 4.54 1 Germany 2.52 2.52 0 Japan 1.42 1.40 (2) China 1.64 1.64 0 India 6.31 6.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.33 5.33 0 Tbill-182 days 5.44 5.42 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.47 5.47 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.73 5.75 3 India OIS-2M 5.38 5.39 1 India OIS-9M 5.50 5.50 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.28 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 2.9 0 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
18-05-2025 19-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (196.1) 435.7 631.8 Debt (126.9) 200.4 327.2 Equity (69.2) 235.3 304.5 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 4,058.4 (4,923.2) (8,981.6) Debt (2,323.2) (5,017.8) (2,694.6) Equity 6,381.6 94.6 (6,287.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 17 Jun and 18 Jun 2025
Oil was trading lower in the previous session. However, firmed up by 2% today.
Fig 7 – Commodities
19-06-2025 20-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 78.9 77.0 (2.3) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3370.9 3368.4 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 9748.4 9908.5 1.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 2613.6 2605.9 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2521.5 2549.5 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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24 June 2025
In the latest development, US President has announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, possibly marking the end of 12-day long war. However, the fine prints are still not known with no official confirmation coming from the two countries involved. Majority of the asset classes were quick to respond. Oil is trading -3% lower in today’s session, DXY and international gold prices softened by -0.3% and - 0.5%, respectively. On macro front, flash PMI data for both manufacturing and services sector posted better readings in the US, UK, Germany and Japan. On domestic front, any positive developments on war will be welcoming. In another news, India’s flash PMI also posted a better print with manufacturing at 58.4 against May’s final data of 57.6 and services data at 60.7 against 58.8, buoyed by export orders. Market is also eyeing India-US trade deal before 9 Jul deadline.
Global indices closed mixed. Markets in US, China and HK jumped as investors monitored Iran’s muted retaliation to US attacks. Analysts also await Fed Chair Powell’s statement to be given to the house and Senate this week. Sensex was dragged down by tech and auto stocks. However, tracking news of ceasefire in Middle East, it is trading higher today in line with other Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,207 42,582 0.9 S & P 500 5,968 6,025 1.0 FTSE 8,775 8,758 (0.2) Nikkei 38,403 38,354 (0.1) Hang Seng 23,530 23,689 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,360 3,382 0.6 Sensex 82,408 81,897 (0.6) Nifty 25,112 24,972 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.3%, despite better-than-expected macro data (PMIs, home sales). Improvement in risk appetite moved demand away from safe havens (JPY was flat). INR depreciated even as oil prices fell. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1523 1.1578 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3451 1.3524 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.09 146.15 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.59 86.75 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1815 7.1789 0 DXY Index 98.71 98.42 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. UK’s 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace followed by the US, amidst risk off sentiment. Germany’s 10Y yield fell a tad as ECB official hinted at continuation of softer policy. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up eyeing the long end bond auction (20-Yr) after plans to trim down its issuances. In India, 10Y yield was stable. The benchmark security is trading lower at 6.29% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.38 4.35 (3) UK 4.54 4.49 (4) Germany 2.52 2.51 (1) Japan 1.40 1.42 2 China 1.64 1.64 0 India 6.31 6.31 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.33 5.32 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.42 5.41 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.47 5.47 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.77 1 India OIS-2M 5.39 5.38 (1) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.50 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.28 4.29 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 2.4 (0.5) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
19-05-2025 20-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 435.7 1,379.7 944.0 Debt 200.4 286.1 85.7 Equity 235.3 1,093.6 858.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,923.2) (4,754.2) 169.0 Debt (5,017.8) (4,927.9) 89.9 Equity 94.6 173.7 79.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 18 Jun and 19 Jun 2025
Oil fell sharply by over 7%, following news of ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Fig 7 – Commodities
20-06-2025 23-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 77.0 71.5 (7.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3368.4 3368.5 0 Copper (US$/ MT) 9908.5 9947.5 0.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2605.9 2664.8 2.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2549.5 2588.5 1.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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25 June 2025
Global markets rebounded. Equities and currencies posted gains while oil and gold moderated, focussing on Middle East truce. In other developments, Fed Chair clarified that if inflation remains contained and labour market is weak, next cut is going to happen sooner. US President has announced that China can buy oil from Iran, thus creating uncertainty on the existing sanctions of US on Iran. On trade front, there are reports that EU might impose retaliatory tariffs on US as the 9 Jul deadline is nearing. As per EU estimates, US duties cover ~70% of its exports. On macro front, US Consumer confidence softened while Germany’s Ifo business climate improved. In Japan PPI firmed up. On domestic front, RBI has announced Rs 1 lakh crore VRRR as part of liquidity normalisation. Hence impact on long and short end yield will be largely capped, as the announcement was on expected lines.
Global indices rebounded as tensions in the Middle East cooled off with ceasefire agreement. Technology and financial stocks were biggest gainers as S&P rallied to near record high. Fed chair’s testimony was consistent with his statement, post the policy decision last week. Sensex too inched up with gains in metal and banking stocks. It is trading higher today in line with Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,582 43,089 1.2 S & P 500 6,025 6,092 1.1 FTSE 8,758 8,759 0 Nikkei 38,354 38,791 1.1 Hang Seng 23,689 24,177 2.1 Shanghai Comp 3,382 3,421 1.2 Sensex 81,897 82,055 0.2 Nifty 24,972 25,044 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed higher. DXY weakened as geopolitical tension subsided, thereby diminishing the demand for safe-haven assets. INR appreciated (2-week high) as oil prices fell. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1578 1.1609 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3524 1.3615 0.7 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 146.15 144.94 0.8 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.75 85.98 0.9 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1789 7.1716 0.1 DXY Index 98.42 97.86 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace as Fed Chair hinted at rate cut if inflation remains aligned to the target. Germany’s 10Y yield showed some momentum as ECB’s Chief Economist hinted that disinflation process is largely completed. India’s 10Y yield fell by 5bps amidst risk off sentiment. The benchmark security is trading at 6.27% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.35 4.29 (5) UK 4.49 4.47 (2) Germany 2.51 2.54 4 Japan 1.42 1.42 1 China 1.64 1.65 1 India 6.31 6.25 (5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.32 5.30 (2) Tbill-182 days 5.41 5.40 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.47 5.47 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.77 5.73 (3) India OIS-2M 5.38 5.37 (1) India OIS-9M 5.50 5.48 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.29 4.29 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.4 2.6 0.2 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
20-05-2025 23-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 1,379.7 (129.4) (1,509.1) Debt 286.1 82.1 (204.0) Equity 1,093.6 (211.5) (1,305.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (4,754.2) (2,409.1) 2,345.1 Debt (4,927.9) (860.2) 4,067.7 Equity 173.7 (1,549.0) (1,722.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 19 Jun and 20 Jun 2025
Oil prices slid further as ceasefire holds, thereby reducing the supply risk.
Fig 7 – Commodities
23-06-2025 24-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 71.5 67.1 (6.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3368.5 3323.7 (1.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 9947.5 9819.9 (1.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 2664.8 2661.3 (0.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2588.5 2579.0 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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26 June 2025
Global markets witnessed mixed reaction to an uneasy ceasefire between Iran and Israel. In other development, US President has hinted a meeting with Iran in the coming week. However, uncertainty reigns over diplomatic agreement on nuclear program. Oil and Gold showed some normalisation. DXY softened as bets have increased over monetary easing in the US. Two of the Fed Governors (Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller) hinted at rate cut in Jul’25. On macro front, it has been a data light day with US new home sales data showing some moderation. It fell by -13.7% sequentially to 623K in May’25 (est.: 693K). On domestic front, RBI has extended the timing for call money market for liquidity optimisation and better realignment to repo.
Barring markets in US and UK, other indices ended in green. Investors analysed Fed Chair Powell’s statement noting that central bank will assess the impact of tariffs before cutting rates. S&P was flat, as tech shares’ performance outweighed drag from other sectors. Sensex rose, with gains in tech and auto stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with Asian indices.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 43,089 42,982 (0.2) S & P 500 6,092 6,092 0 FTSE 8,759 8,719 (0.5) Nikkei 38,791 38,942 0.4 Hang Seng 24,177 24,475 1.2 Shanghai Comp 3,421 3,456 1.0 Sensex 82,055 82,756 0.9 Nifty 25,044 25,245 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies closed mixed. DXY fell by 0.2%, dragged by weak macro data (new home sales). Drop in equity markets also accentuated the decline. EUR and GBP gained the most, as Fed rate cut bets grow. INR declined as oil prices rose. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1609 1.1659 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3615 1.3664 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.94 145.24 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.98 86.09 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1716 7.1741 0 DXY Index 97.86 97.68 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Japan’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps eyeing 2-year bond auction which showed firm demand. US 10Y closed stable as traders remained cautious in anticipation of softer monetary policy. Germany’s 10Y yield inched up by 2bps as much of frontloading of rates by ECB has happened. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps eyeing VRRR announcement. The benchmark security is trading at 6.29%.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.29 4.29 0 UK 4.47 4.48 1 Germany 2.54 2.57 2 Japan 1.42 1.40 (3) China 1.65 1.66 1 India 6.25 6.29 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.30 5.39 9 Tbill-182 days 5.40 5.51 11 Tbill-364 days 5.47 5.55 8 G-Sec 2Y 5.73 5.78 5 India OIS-2M 5.37 5.43 6 India OIS-9M 5.48 5.51 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.29 4.30 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.6 2.5 (0.1) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
23-05-2025 24-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (129.4) (548.9) (419.5) Debt 82.1 (45.2) (127.4) Equity (211.5) (503.6) (292.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,409.1) 4,492.1 6,901.2 Debt (860.2) (703.8) 156.4 Equity (1,549.0) 5,195.8 6,744.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 20 Jun and 23 Jun 2025
Oil prices rose, amidst Iran-Israel ceasefire violation reports.
Fig 7 – Commodities
24-06-2025 25-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.1 67.7 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3323.7 3332.3 0.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 9819.9 9813.2 (0.1) Zinc (US$/MT) 2661.3 2687.1 1.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2579.0 2563.5 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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27 June 2025
Global markets got a breather from signs of optimistic developments. There has been some progress on US-China trade dynamics with some hint of implementation of the Geneva accord. US Commerce Secretary has further confirmed that efforts are in progress to reach agreements with 10 of its major trading partners before the 9 Jul deadline. Equity and bonds also got support from growing expectation of softer monetary policy by Fed. On macro front, US GDP (Q1: 3rd estimate) contracted at a faster pace at -0.5%, QoQ (est.:-0.2%) due to slowdown in services spending. The 4-week moving average jobless claims data remained elevated, thus pointing to weaker labour market conditions. In Germany, consumer confidence softened. In China, industrial profits fell at a sharp pace on account of muted commodity prices. On domestic front, month-end releases will be closely watched
Except China and Hong Kong, equity markets elsewhere rallied. Easing concerns over the Middle East crisis and optimism over US-China trade deal buoyed investor sentiments. Nikkei rose the most by 1.6%. Sensex surged by 1.2%, driven by a rally in metal and oil and gas stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,982 43,387 0.9 S & P 500 6,092 6,141 0.8 FTSE 8,719 8,736 0.2 Nikkei 38,942 39,585 1.6 Hang Seng 24,475 24,325 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,456 3,448 (0.2) Sensex 82,756 83,756 1.2 Nifty 25,245 25,549 1.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies gained against a weaker dollar. DXY declined as bets of a rate cut in Jul’25 have increased. Easing trade and geo-political tensions also diminished the demand for safe-haven. INR appreciated by 0.4% to a 2-week high. It is trading further stronger today, in line with its Asian peers.
Fig 2 – Currencies
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1659 1.1701 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3664 1.3728 0.5 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.24 144.42 0.6 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 86.09 85.71 0.4 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1741 7.1676 0.1 DXY Index 97.68 97.15 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace as macro data remained weak hinting at softer monetary policy, going ahead. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up ahead of the CPI data. Elsewhere, yields traded in a narrow range. India’s 10Y yield softened a tad. The benchmark security is trading at 6.28% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.29 4.24 (5) UK 4.48 4.47 (1) Germany 2.57 2.57 0 Japan 1.40 1.42 3 China 1.66 1.65 (1) India 6.29 6.28 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.39 5.38 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.51 5.52 1 Tbill-364 days 5.55 5.53 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.79 1 India OIS-2M 5.43 5.43 0 India OIS-9M 5.51 5.50 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.22 4.22 0 US SOFR 4.30 4.36 6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.5 2.7 0.2 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
24-05-2025 25-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (548.9) (83.1) 465.8 Debt (45.2) 16.4 61.6 Equity (503.6) (99.5) 404.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 4,492.1 4,492.1 6,901.2 Debt (703.8) (703.8) 156.4 Equity 5,195.8 5,195.8 6,744.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 20 Jun and 23 Jun 2025
Oil prices inched up tracking a decline in US crude inventories.
Fig 7 – Commodities
25-06-2025 26-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 67.7 67.7 0.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3332.3 3327.9 (0.1) Copper (US$/ MT) 9813.2 10219.3 4.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 2687.1 2765.7 2.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2563.5 2583.5 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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