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Economic Weekly Wrap
16 June 2025 - 20 Jun 2025

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  • 16 June 2025

    Continuous escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel has dented investor sentiments across asset classes. Oil prices registered sharp increase, equity markets fell and US$ strengthened. All eyes will now be on hopes of cease fire deal between the two. Separately in the US, University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index inched up in Jun’25—a first in 6 months—to 60.5 (est.: 54) from 52.2 in May’25. Along with this, analysts also remain watchful of upcoming Fed meeting this week, wherein rates are expected to be kept on hold. Elsewhere, China’s macro data shows mixed signs of growth. Retail sales rose by 6.4% in May’25 (est.: 5%) following 5% increase in Apr’25, while industrial production (5.8% versus 6.1%) and FAI growth on CYTD basis (3.7% versus 4%) slowed. A tariff deal struck between China and US in mid-May helped limit the damage on the industrial sector’s growth.


    Global stocks ended lower. Investors monitored growing developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, overall adding to the growing geopolitical uncertainty. Amongst other indices, Dow Jones dropped the most, followed by losses in Nikkei. Sensex’s too settled lower with banking and metal amongst the major laggards. However, it is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,96842,198(1.8)
    S & P 5006,0455,977(1.1)
    FTSE8,8858,851(0.4)
    Nikkei38,17337,834(0.9)
    Hang Seng24,03523,893(0.6)
    Shanghai Comp3,4033,377(0.8)
    Sensex81,69281,119(0.7)
    Nifty24,88824,719(0.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies closed lower. DXY strengthened as the demand for safe heaven assets rose amidst Middle East conflict. It was further supported by an improvement in consumer sentiment reading. INR fell amidst rise in oil prices. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.15841.1549(0.3)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.36131.3571(0.3)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)143.48144.07(0.4)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.6086.09(0.6)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.17277.1832(0.1)
    DXY Index97.9298.180.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except Japan and China, 10Y yields elsewhere inched up. US 10Y yield was up by 4bps, tracking improvement in consumer sentiment index and rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. UK’s yields remain elevated, driven by concerns of fiscal health of the government. India’s 10Y yield rose by 1bps, as oil prices increase. It is trading a tad lower at 6.35% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.364.404
    UK4.484.557
    Germany2.482.546
    Japan1.451.41(4)
    China1.701.700
    India6.346.361

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.355.34(1)
    Tbill-182 days5.425.420
    Tbill-364 days5.495.48(1)
    G-Sec 2Y5.795.77(2)
    India OIS-2M5.455.43(2)
    India OIS-9M5.545.540
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.284.280

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.83.60.8
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      11-05-2025 12-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(487.8)(384.2)103.6
    Debt(472.4)(1.2)471.2
    Equity(15.4)(383.0)(367.6)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(2,151.6)(3,223.9)(1,072.3)
    Debt(2,135.4)(3,516.6)(1,381.3)
    Equity(16.2)292.8308.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 Jun and 11 Jun 2025


    Crude prices surged as Iran-Israel tensions have escalated sharply.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      12-06-2025 13-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)69.474.27.0
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3385.93432.31.4
    Copper (US$/ MT)9787.59718.4(0.7)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2612.12600.1(0.5)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2517.52503.0(0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 17 June 2025

    Amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East region, Iran has signalled that it is willing to de-escalate tensions with Israel, as both countries continue to attack each other’s shipping infrastructure. Even at the G7 summit, leaders agree that Iran should be brought back to the negotiation table as soon as possible. Until tensions de-escalate, oil prices are expected to remain elevated, which in turn will have an upside impact on global inflation. In the US, FOMC this week is expected to keep rates on hold, but the statement is important to gauge future policy cues. Domestically, wholesale inflation (WPI) eased to 14-month low of 0.4% in May’25, helped by moderation in food inflation. Trade data showed that trade deficit fell to 3- month low of US$ 21.9bn in May’25. Signalling robust consumption trend, non-oilnon-gold imports inched up, and even non-oil exports performed well.


    Global stocks ended higher as investors turned their focus towards upcoming rate decisions by a host of central banks. Strong retail sales data in China lifted Asian indices. Nikkei surged with gains in chip making stocks and weaker Yen boosted export focussed stocks. Sensex rebounded with broad based advances noted across indices. It is trading higher today, in line with Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,19842,5150.8
    S & P 5005,9776,0330.9
    FTSE8,8518,8750.3
    Nikkei37,83438,3111.3
    Hang Seng23,89324,0610.7
    Shanghai Comp3,3773,3890.3
    Sensex81,11981,7960.8
    Nifty24,71924,9470.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies closed mixed. DXY weakened as investors trimmed risk-off bets, and subdued empire state manufacturing index (-16 from -9.2 in May’25) raised concerns for manufacturing sector. INR ended flat. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.15491.15610.1
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35711.35780.1
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)144.07144.75(0.5)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)86.0986.060
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18327.18020
    DXY Index98.1898.00(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield was up by another 5bps, as investors assess the impact of ongoing conflict in the Middle East, elevated oil prices, and await FOMC statement regarding future trajectory of rates. India’s 10Y yield fell sharply by 9bps, as oil prices begin to ease. However, tracking global cues, it is trading higher at 6.31% today

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.404.455
    UK4.554.53(2)
    Germany2.542.53(1)
    Japan1.411.443
    China1.701.700
    India6.366.27(9)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.345.373
    Tbill-182 days5.425.442
    Tbill-364 days5.485.502
    G-Sec 2Y5.775.781
    India OIS-2M5.435.42(1)
    India OIS-9M5.545.51(3)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.284.280

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)3.62.7(0.9)
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      12-05-2025 13-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(384.2)(106.2)278.0
    Debt(1.2)(62.8)(61.6)
    Equity(383.0)(43.4)339.6
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(1,749.3)9,274.311,023.6
    Debt(2,974.6)1,083.94,058.5
    Equity1,225.38,190.46,965.2

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 11 Jun and 12 Jun 2025


    Oil prices fell, amidst demand worries and Iran’s intent to de-escalate tensions.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)74.273.2(1.3)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3432.33385.2(1.4)
    Copper (US$/ MT)9718.49798.60.8
    Zinc (US$/MT)2600.12633.41.3
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2503.02513.50.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 18 June 2025

    US economy is signalling a slowdown as its industrial output fell by (-) 0.2% (MoM) in May’25 (est.: 0%) following 0.1% increase in Apr’25. The drag came from (-) 2.9% decline in index for utilities. Manufacturing sector growth rose by 0.1% from (-) 0.5% in Apr’25, supported by 4.9% increase in index for motor vehicles and parts. On the consumption front, retail sales fell by (-) 0.9% in May’25 versus 0.1% in Apr’25, thus recording steepest decline in 4 months. Sales of motor vehicles and parts fell the most (-3.5% versus -0.6%), followed by building material, and electronics and appliances. Elevated interest rates remain a concern. Separately, tracking heightened uncertainty globally, BoJ decided to keep its rates on hold at 0.5%. Inflation risks were highlighted as crude prices are inching up. The central bank also decided to reduce its bond buying program by 200bn Yen/quarter from 400bn Yen.


    Barring Nikkei (higher) and Shanghai Comp (flat), other global stocks ended lower amidst escalated tensions around Middle East conflict. Additionally, investors are also closely monitoring any news related to tariffs and interest rate trajectory. Sensex declined with losses in metal and oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,51542,216(0.7)
    S & P 5006,0335,983(0.8)
    FTSE8,8758,834(0.5)
    Nikkei38,31138,5370.6
    Hang Seng24,06123,980(0.3)
    Shanghai Comp3,3893,3870
    Sensex81,79681,583(0.3)
    Nifty24,94724,853(0.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies closed lower. DXY firmed up ahead of the inflation data and the dot plot from FOMC. GBP slipped awaiting softer inflation print and BoE rate decision. INR depreciated given higher oil prices. It is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.15611.1480(0.7)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35781.3429(1.1)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)144.75145.29(0.4)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)86.0686.24(0.2)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18027.1868(0.1)
    DXY Index98.0098.820.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield was down by 6bps, following weaker than expected industrial output and retail sales data. Yields rose in Japan, UK and Germany. Continued escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel remains a key concern. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps. However, tracking rise in oil prices, it is trading higher at 6.33% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.454.39(6)
    UK4.534.552
    Germany2.532.541
    Japan1.441.473
    China1.701.69(1)
    India6.276.27(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.375.36(1)
    Tbill-182 days5.445.451
    Tbill-364 days5.505.500
    G-Sec 2Y5.785.75(3)
    India OIS-2M5.425.39(3)
    India OIS-9M5.515.47(4)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.284.324

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.72.90.2
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      13-06-2025 16-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(106.2)(362.2)(256.0)
    Debt(62.8)(54.4)8.4
    Equity(43.4)(307.8)(264.4)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)9,431.11,804.4(7,626.7)
    Debt1,250.726.4(1,224.3)
    Equity8,180.41,778.0(6,402.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 12 Jun and 13 Jun 2025


    Oil prices rose sharply as tensions in the Middle East continue to swell.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)73.276.54.4
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3385.23388.10.1
    Copper (US$/ MT)9798.69791.8(0.1)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2633.42610.5(0.9)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2513.52550.51.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 19 June 2025

    In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep its rates on hold. The closely watched dot plot continues to signal 2 rate cuts in CY25. Analysts believe the cycle to resume from Sep’25. FOMC also lowered its growth projection to 1.4% for CY25 (1.7% estimated in Mar’25) and increased its inflation estimate to 3.1% (2.8% in Mar’25). For CY26 as well, stagflation risks continue with GDP growth forecast lowered by 20bps and inflation increased by the same magnitude. Also impacting investor sentiments was the labour market data. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 14 Jun’25 fell by 5k to 245k. Continuing claims (4-week avg) noted an increase of 13k to 1.93mn (highest since Nov’21). Separately, ahead of BoE’s rate decision, UK’s inflation eased a tad to 3.4% in May’25 from 3.5% in Apr’24. Analysts continue to expect no rate cut this week.

    Global stocks closed mixed. Dow Jones slipped by 0.1% as investor monitored hawkish tone by US Fed and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Hang Sang dropped for the second session in a row amidst the ongoing uncertainty on US-China trade deal with losses in EV and tech stocks. Sensex settled lower and opened weaker today, other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,21642,172(0.1)
    S & P 5005,9835,9810
    FTSE8,8348,8430.1
    Nikkei38,53738,8850.9
    Hang Seng23,98023,711(1.1)
    Shanghai Comp3,3873,3890
    Sensex81,58381,445(0.2)
    Nifty24,85324,812(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose as the Fed chair signalled inflation could possibly rise due to tariff uncertainty. Heightened tensions due to Middle East conflict also raised demand for safe heaven assets. INR weakened further. It is trading even lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.14801.14800
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.34291.3422(0.1)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)145.29145.130.1
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)86.2486.47(0.3)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18687.18950
    DXY Index98.8298.910.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except US and India, other global 10Y yields fell. While Fed’s decision was in line with market expectations, yields reacted to downward revision of US growth forecasts and upward revision of inflation projections. India’s 10Y yield remained unchanged, and await RBI’s minutes to be released tomorrow. It is trading only marginally higher today, at 6.27%.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.394.390
    UK4.554.50(5)
    Germany2.542.50(4)
    Japan1.471.46(1)
    China1.691.64(5)
    India6.276.260

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.365.35(1)
    Tbill-182 days5.455.44(1)
    Tbill-364 days5.505.500
    G-Sec 2Y5.755.73(2)
    India OIS-2M5.395.390
    India OIS-9M5.475.470
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.220
    US SOFR4.324.31(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.92.90
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(362.2)203.1565.3
    Debt(54.4)(120.7)(66.3)
    Equity(307.8)323.9631.6
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)1,804.43,621.31,816.9
    Debt26.4(2,050.7)(2,077.1)
    Equity1,778.05,672.03,894.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 Jun and 16 Jun 2025


    Oil prices remain near 4-month high, as tensions between Iran-Israel continue.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      17-06-2025 18-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)76.576.70.3
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3388.13369.4(0.6)
    Copper (US$/ MT)9791.89761.5(0.3)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2610.52606.5(0.2)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2550.52547.0(0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 20 June 2025

    As anticipated, Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%. It raised concerns regarding the impact of ongoing conflict in the Middle East on oil prices and domestic inflation. However, the central bank also noted that easing wage pressure may help cool CPI down. It was further noted that that the labour market and economic growth is slowing, which in turn may allow the central bank to lower monetary policy restrictions in the upcoming meetings. Analyst expect 1 rate cut in Aug’25 and another in Q4. In Asia, Japan’s retail inflation was up by 3.5% in May’25, slightly down from 3.6% in Apr’25. However, core CPI (excl food and fuel) rose by 3.3% from 3% in Apr’25. This is worrisome, as BoJ had expected moderation in inflation, given sluggish economic activity. China’s PBOC announced no change in lending rates (1Y and 5Y LPR), as trade tensions between China and US ease.


    Global stocks closed lower as investors monitored comments from White House with US weighing in on the decision to get involved in the Iran-Israel conflict in the coming 2-weeks. FTSE slipped by 0.6% with losses in personal goods and metal stocks. Amidst selling pressure, Sensex dropped with losses in midcap and small cap indices. It is trading lower; Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,21642,172(0.1)
    S & P 5005,9835,9810
    FTSE8,8438,792(0.6)
    Nikkei38,88538,488(1.0)
    Hang Seng23,71123,238(2.0)
    Shanghai Comp3,3893,362(0.8)
    Sensex81,44581,362(0.1)
    Nifty24,81224,793(0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 19 Jun 2025


    Global currencies closed mixed. DXY ended steady, awaiting Fed monetary policy report. GBP rose after the BoE kept rates unchanged. INR fell as oil prices continued to surge due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, it is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.14801.14950.1
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.34221.34650.3
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)145.13145.45(0.2)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)86.4786.73(0.3)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18957.18780
    DXY Index98.9198.910

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 19 Jun 2025


    Global 10Y yields closed mixed. Japan’s 10Y yield fell the most, while it inched up in India, UK and Germany. BoE held rates steady, but pointed out that conflict in the Middle East could add to inflationary pressures. India’s 10Y yield rose by 5bps, as oil remains a concern. However, tracking global cues, it is trading marginally lower today, at 6.30%.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.394.390
    UK4.504.534
    Germany2.502.522
    Japan1.461.42(4)
    China1.641.640
    India6.266.315

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 19 Jun 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.355.33(2)
    Tbill-182 days5.445.440
    Tbill-364 days5.505.47(3)
    G-Sec 2Y5.735.753
    India OIS-2M5.395.38(1)
    India OIS-9M5.475.503
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.224.220
    US SOFR4.324.31(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in US were closed on 19 Jun 2025


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.92.90
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      16-06-2025 17-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)203.1(196.1)(399.2)
    Debt(120.7)(126.9)(6.1)
    Equity323.9(69.2)(393.1)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)1,804.43,621.31,816.9
    Debt26.4(2,050.7)(2,077.1)
    Equity1,778.05,672.03,894.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 Jun and 16 Jun 2025


    Oil prices rose higher, as Iran escalates attacks on Israel.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      18-06-2025 19-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)76.778.92.8
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3369.43370.90
    Copper (US$/ MT)9761.59748.4(0.1)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2606.52613.60.3
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2547.02521.5(1.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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23 June 2025 - 27 Jun 2025

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09 June 2025 - 13 Jun 2025

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