Economic Weekly Wrap
27 Oct 2025 - 31 Oct 2025
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27 October 2025
In the US, headline inflation rose to 3% mark in Sep’25 from 2.9% in Aug’25. Despite inching up, it came in below the estimated mark of 3.1%. Core inflation (excl food and fuel) rose at a tad slower pace at 3% from 3.1% in Aug’25. On a MoM basis, both headline (0.3% from 0.4%) and core inflation (0.2% from 0.3%) moderated when compared with last month. Apart from gasoline, prices of all the other commodities were fairly muted in Sep’25. Following this report, there is growing expectations of two rate cuts this year instead of one, as was initially anticipated. Separately, US consumer sentiment dropped to a 5-month low to 53.6 in Oct’25 from 55 in Sep’25. This week, investors will closely track outcome of Central Bank meetings and ongoing trade negotiations between US and China.
Except domestic indices, other global stock indices rose. US indices advanced amidst optimism surrounding a possible trade deal between US and China and ahead of the Fed’s decision to reduce rate. Amongst other indices, Nikkei gained the most. Sensex was down with losses in banking and power stocks. However, it is trading further higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Table 1 – Stock markets
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,735 47,207 1.0 S & P 500 6,738 6,792 0.8 FTSE 9,579 9,646 0.7 Nikkei 48,642 49,300 1.4 Hang Seng 25,968 26,160 0.7 Shanghai Comp 3,922 3,950 0.7 Sensex 84,556 84,212 (0.4) Nifty 25,891 25,795 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring GBP and JPY (lower), other major currencies closed flat/higher against the US$. DXY also remained at unchanged levels. Possible US-China trade deal has led to improvement in risk appetite of investors and has also lowered safe-haven demand (Yen). INR remained stable. However, it is trading weaker today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Table 2 – Currencies
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1618 1.1627 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3326 1.3311 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.57 152.86 (0.2) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.85 87.85 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1233 7.1225 0 DXY Index 98.94 98.95 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield ended flat as inflation data reaffirmed that Fed would lower rates in Dec’25 (after Oct’25), and Michigan University’s consumer sentiment index pointed towards weakening confidence level. 10Y yield in Germany was supported by better than expected PMI data. India’s 10Y yield was stable but is trading a tad higher today at 6.54%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.00 4.00 0 UK 4.42 4.43 1 Germany 2.58 2.63 4 Japan 1.67 1.66 (1) China 1.84 1.85 1 India 6.54 6.53 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.45 5.48 3 Tbill-182 days 5.56 5.57 1 Tbill-364 days 5.57 5.54 (3) G-Sec 2Y 5.77 5.75 (2) India OIS-2M 5.52 5.51 (1) India OIS-9M 5.44 5.44 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.21 4.24 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 0 0.3 0.3 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
20-10-2025 23-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 226.5 (141.7) (368.3) Debt 139.4 (51.1) (190.6) Equity 87.1 (90.6) (177.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,192.8 2,787.1 (405.7) Debt 927.3 (698.7) (1,626.1) Equity 2,265.5 3,485.8 1,220.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14th Oct and 15th Oct 2025
Oil prices remain range-bound, awaiting outcome of US-China trade deal.
Table 7 – Commodities
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 66.0 65.9 (0.1) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,126.3 4,113.1 (0.3) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,843.0 10,936.5 0.9 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,243.4 3,212.9 (0.9) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,862.5 2,859.0 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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28 October 2025
In Germany the IFO business climate index improved to 88.4 in Oct’25 (from 87.7 in Sep’25) much higher than anticipated. As per analysts, the economy is expected to grow by 0.2% this year and advance next year (1.3%), supported by higher state spending. Separately, financial markets in Argentina accelerated after President Javier Milei’s party won the mid-term election, bringing back focus to free market reforms. Equity market advanced by 22%, bonds rose as high as 13bps and Peso strengthened by 4% against dollar. In UK, as per CBI, retail sales is expected to drop further in Nov’25 amidst consumers turning cautious about the upcoming budget. The sales have been falling for over 13 months, reflecting weaker consumer confidence. In India, IIP data for Sep’25 is expected to release today (Aug’25: 4%).
Cheered by prospects of US-China trade deal, global stock indices rose. US indices advanced further awaiting corporate earnings of tech firms. Investors have priced in 25bps rate cut and will closely track Fed Chair’s commentary for further cues on rates trajectory. Sensex rebounded with gains in real estate and metal stocks. It is trading further higher today, in line with Asian stocks.
Table 1 – Stock markets
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,207 47,545 0.7 S & P 500 6,792 6,875 1.2 FTSE 9,646 9,654 0.1 Nikkei 49,300 50,512 2.5 Hang Seng 26,160 26,434 1.0 Shanghai Comp 3,950 3,997 1.2 Sensex 84,212 84,779 0.7 Nifty 25,795 25,966 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Major global currencies closed mixed against the US$. DXY fell by (-) 0.2% as investors await Fed rate decision and commentary by Fed Chair. EUR and GBP gained the most, supported by positive momentum in PMIs. INR fell by (-) 0.4%, following higher demand from importers. It is trading further lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading higher.
Table 2 – Currencies
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1627 1.1645 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3311 1.3336 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.86 152.88 0 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 87.85 88.24 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1225 7.1084 0.2 DXY Index 98.95 98.78 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except in Japan and India (higher), other global yields closed lower. US 10Y yield was down by 2bps, as investors expect a dovish commentary by FOMC amidst ongoing government shutdown and its impact on growth. China’s 10Y yield fell the most as PBoC announced it will restart its treasury bond purchase program. India’s 10Y yield was up by 1bps and is trading flat today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.00 3.98 (2) UK 4.43 4.40 (3) Germany 2.63 2.62 (1) Japan 1.66 1.67 1 China 1.85 1.81 (4) India 6.53 6.55 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.48 5.48 0 Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.56 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.54 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.76 1 India OIS-2M 5.51 5.52 1 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.45 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.24 4.24 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 0.3 (0.2) (0.5) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
23-10-2025 24-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (141.7) 38.1 179.8 Debt (51.1) (26.6) 24.6 Equity (90.6) 64.7 155.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,192.8 2,787.1 (405.7) Debt 927.3 (698.7) (1,626.1) Equity 2,265.5 3,485.8 1,220.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14th Oct and 15th Oct 2025
Oil prices extended their fall as OPEC+ plans to boost output.
Table 7 – Commodities
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 65.9 65.6 (0.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,113.1 3,982.2 (3.2) Copper (US$/ MT) 10,936.5 11,005.2 0.6 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,212.9 3,267.9 1.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,859.0 2,874.5 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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29 October 2025
In the US, labour market is showing signs of ‘tepid recovery’ as was reflected by the private payroll jobs data (ADP). For the week ending Oct 11, on an average, per weekly basis over 14,250 jobs were added. With this, a total of 55,000 jobs would have been added by the private sector for the 4-week period. Separately in Germany, the consumer sentiment index dropped to -24.1 (lowest since Apr’25) in Nov’25 lower than anticipated (-22). This was led by decline in income expectations (2.3 from 15.1 in Oct’25) and amidst ‘ongoing geopolitical tensions’. In India, IIP data came in at 4% for Sep’25 (3.2% in Sep’24). Union Cabinet approved reference for 8th pay commission which is expected to be positive for the consumption sector.
Barring US indices and FTSE, other global indices closed lower. The news report of a firm building AI enabled supercomputer for US government pushed the stocks of technology firms higher. FTSE advanced, led by gains in banking sector. Sensex slipped amidst profit booking and losses in real estate and consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,545 47,706 0.3 S & P 500 6,875 6,891 0.2 FTSE 9,654 9,697 0.4 Nikkei 50,512 50,219 (0.6) Hang Seng 26,434 26,346 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,997 3,988 (0.2) Sensex 84,779 84,628 (0.2) Nifty 25,966 25,936 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies ended mixed. DXY inched down as US consumer confidence data moderated. JPY edged up tracking US Treasury Secretary’s comments on BoJ, centring on anchoring of inflation expectations. GBP softened albeit expectation of no further policy easing this year. INR closed largely stable. It is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1645 1.1651 0.1 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3336 1.3272 (0.5) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.88 152.11 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.24 88.27 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1084 7.0992 0.1 DXY Index 98.78 98.67 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan, global 10Y yields traded in a narrow range. Japan’s 10Y yield softened tracking US Treasury Secretary’s comments. US, UK and China’s 10Y yield remained stable tracking positive developments over US-China trade deal. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad. It is trading at 6.53% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change, bps US 3.98 3.98 0 UK 4.40 4.40 0 Germany 2.62 2.62 1 Japan 1.67 1.65 (3) China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.55 6.54 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.48 5.45 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.57 5.50 (7) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.48 (6) G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.78 3 India OIS-2M 5.51 5.52 1 India OIS-9M 5.44 5.45 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.24 4.27 3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) (0.2) (0.1) 0.1 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
24-10-2025 27-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 38.1 117.7 79.6 Debt (26.6) 47.8 74.3 Equity 64.7 70.0 5.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 3,192.8 2,787.1 (405.7) Debt 927.3 (698.7) (1,626.1) Equity 2,265.5 3,485.8 1,220.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14th Oct and 15th Oct 2025
Oil prices softened tracking comments of IEA Chief over higher supply capacity.
Table 7 – Commodities
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 65.6 64.4 (1.9) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,982.2 3,952.1 (0.8) Copper (US$/ MT) 11,005.2 11,019.0 0.1 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,267.9 3,229.1 (1.2) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,874.5 2,889.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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30 October 2025
In line with expectation, US Fed reduced policy rates by 25bps, bringing the benchmark rate in the range of 3.75-4% (lowest level in 3-years). A majority (10-2) voted for rate cut, with dissent votes by Governor Miran (appointed by President Trump) who voted for deeper rate cut (50bps) and Kansas Fed chief who voted for no rate reduction. Fed Chief Powell noted that lack of data could possibly have an impact on Dec’25 meet. He also noted, ‘differing views’ between members on future path of monetary policy. Additionally, it was announced, that Fed will restart limited purchases of Treasury securities, post money market giving signs of scarce liquidity. Separately, Bank of Japan kept the rates unchanged at 0.5% with majority vote of 7- 2 which was widely expected.
Barring Dow Jones and Hang Seng, other global indices closed higher. US indices closed mixed as investors are no longer assured of another rate cut in Dec’25. Nikkei scaled a record high supported by tech optimism. Sensex rebounded with gains in power and oil & gas stocks. However, it is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,706 47,632 (0.2) S & P 500 6,891 6,891 0 FTSE 9,697 9,756 0.6 Nikkei 50,219 51,308 2.2 Hang Seng 26,434 26,346 (0.3) Shanghai Comp 3,988 4,016 0.7 Sensex 84,628 84,997 0.4 Nifty 25,936 26,054 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except INR and CNY, other major currencies fell against the US$. DXY jumped by 0.6% as Fed Chair signalled paucity in rates in the coming months. Gains in treasury yields also helped US$ strengthen. GBP, EUR and JPY were most hit. INR rose by 0.1%, supported by optimism around possible US-India trade deal. However, it is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1651 1.1601 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3272 1.3194 (0.6) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.11 152.73 (0.4) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.27 88.20 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0992 7.0985 0 DXY Index 98.67 99.22 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global yields closed mixed. US 10Y yield jumped sharply (10bps) as Fed Chair indicated that there was growing consensus that FOMC should pause its rate cut cycle, as it evaluates the impact of latest reduction in rates. Investors and Fed also await release of delayed macro-economic data. India’s 10Y yield was stable. However, it is trading a tad higher today, tracking global cues.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change, bps US 3.98 4.08 10 UK 4.40 4.39 (1) Germany 2.62 2.62 0 Japan 1.65 1.66 1 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.54 6.54 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.45 5.45 0 Tbill-182 days 5.50 5.58 8 Tbill-364 days 5.48 5.57 9 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.78 0 India OIS-2M 5.52 5.52 0 India OIS-9M 5.45 5.46 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.27 4.31 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) (0.1) 0.1 0.2 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
27-10-2025 28-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 117.7 1,139.9 1,022.2 Debt 47.8 71.7 24.0 Equity 70.0 1,068.1 998.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (436.2) 2,332.2 2,768.4 Debt 108.8 352.1 243.3 Equity (545.1) 1,980.1 2,525.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 Oct and 27th Oct 2025
Oil prices rose, as US-China trade deal may improve demand prospects.
Table 7 – Commodities
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.4 64.9 0.8 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,952.1 3,930.1 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 11,019.0 11,163.8 1.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,229.1 3,215.5 (0.4) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,889.0 2,887.0 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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31 October 2025
In a recent meeting between Presidents of US and China, both signalled that an understanding between the two has been reached to arrive at a trade deal. For now, China has loosened its export control policy for rare-earth metals for 1 year and US has announced scaling back of tariff on fentanyl imports to 10% and overall tariffs to 47% from 57% earlier. Separately in Europe, growth outlook remains grim with Germany’s GDP stalling (0%) in Q3CY25 (QoQ basis), following (-) 0.3% decline in Q2. In contrast, overall Eurozone GDP rose by 0.2% in Q3 from 0.1% in Q2. France, Spain and Netherland were the outperformers. ECB in its recent meeting held its policy rate unchanged, as overall growth shows some improvement and inflation remains under control for now.
Except Nikkei and FTSE, other global indices ended lower. US indices fell amidst concerns over AI spending by major tech firms. Investors also continued to monitor developments in US-China trade talks. In Asia, while Nikkei continued to trade near a record-high, other indices were largely subdued. Sensex fell by 0.7% amidst losses in tech and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Table 1 – Stock markets
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 47,632 47,522 (0.2) S & P 500 6,891 6,822 (1.0) FTSE 9,756 9,760 0 Nikkei 51,308 51,326 0 Hang Seng 26,346 26,283 (0.2) Shanghai Comp 4,016 3,987 (0.7) Sensex 84,997 84,404 (0.7) Nifty 26,054 25,878 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets in Hong Kong were closed on 29 Oct 2025
Global currencies depreciated. DXY continued to rally as investors pared back expectations of more rate cuts by the Fed. JPY fell as a sustained increase in inflation (Tokyo) impinged on future rate hikes. INR depreciated tracking global cues. However, it is trading stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1601 1.1565 (0.3) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3194 1.3151 (0.3) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.73 154.13 (0.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.20 88.70 (0.6) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.0985 7.1104 (0.2) DXY Index 99.22 99.53 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except Japan and China, 10Y yields elsewhere closed higher. US 10Y yield rose by another 2bps, as traders continue to evaluate the possibility of no rate cut by Fed in Dec’25. Concerns around elevated US government debt have also resurfaced. Following global cues and rise in oil prices, India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps. However, it is trading flat today at 6.57%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.08 4.10 2 UK 4.39 4.42 3 Germany 2.62 2.64 2 Japan 1.66 1.66 0 China 1.81 1.81 0 India 6.54 6.57 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.45 5.45 0 Tbill-182 days 5.58 5.57 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.57 5.57 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.78 5.85 7 India OIS-2M 5.52 5.50 (2) India OIS-9M 5.46 5.47 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.31 4.27 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 0.1 0.1 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
28-10-2025 29-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 1,139.9 117.9 (1,022.0) Debt 71.7 206.3 134.5 Equity 1,068.1 (88.4) (1,156.5) Mutual funds (Rs cr) (436.2) 2,332.2 2,768.4 Debt 108.8 352.1 243.3 Equity (545.1) 1,980.1 2,525.2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 24 Oct and 27 Oct 2025
Oil prices rose a tad, noting larger than expected decline in US inventories.
Table 7 – Commodities
29-10-2025 30-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.9 65.0 0.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,930.1 4,024.5 2.4 Copper (US$/ MT) 11,163.8 10,895.6 (2.4) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,215.5 3,133.5 (2.5) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,887.0 2,863.5 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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