Economic Weekly Wrap
19 Jan 2026 - 22 Jan 2026

Global markets monitored major central bank policy decisions. BoE had cut policy rate by 25bps, and bank rate is at its 3-year low of 3.75%. However, BoE Governor, clearly signalled that there remains less scope of future easing. ECB maintained status quo amidst buoyant growth outlook and inflation aligning to the 2% target. The future policy outlook seems to be hawkish. BoJ raised policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%, its first hike since Jan’25 with policy rate at its highest since CY95. The decision comes in the wake of CPI hovering at or above the targeted 2% level for 44-months in a row. Amongst major macro releases, both CPI and core CPI in the US softened to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, on YoY basis. Initial jobless claims moderated to 224K for the week ending 13 Dec. On domestic front, India and Oman signed trade pact to expand trade and investment, a welcoming move towards diversification.

US stocks received support from a moderation in CPI. Elsewhere, investors monitored policy decisions and commentaries from BoE and ECB. Sensex declined further, as power and oil and gas receded. It is trading further weaker today, while other Asian stocks are trading mostly higher.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except EUR, other global currencies ended higher. DXY rose by 0.1% tracking CPI data. EUR depreciated as ECB likely closed the door for more rate cuts. GBP was broadly flat after BoE cut rates by a narrow vote. INR appreciated by 0.1%. It is trading stronger at below the 90/$ mark today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US 10Y yield softened by 3bps tracking moderation in CPI data. Elsewhere 10Y yields traded thinly monitoring policy decisions of major central banks. Japan’s 10Y yield is trading at its highest since CY06 at 2%, post BoJ rate decision. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps tracking auction results of Rs 500bn OMO purchase by RBI. It is trading at 6.58% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 15 Dec and 16 Dec 2025

Oil prices rose as US President announced sanctions on Venezuela.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US President Donald Trump has recently announced tariffs on eight targeted European nations from 1 Feb 2026 (10%). This will be increased to 25% from 1 Jun 2026, until the matter of acquisition of Greenland is resolved. In response to this, news reports indicate that these nations are planning to impose retaliatory tariffs on €93bn worth of imports from the US. Apart from this, Supreme Court of the US is also set to announce its verdict on the validity of US tariffs today. Separately in China, growth target for CY25 was met as GDP rose by 5% (5.2% in CY24), even as Q4CY25 GDP slowed (4.5% versus 4.8% in Q3). This was led by support from export boom, while domestic activity remains muted. Industrial output rose by 5.9% and retail sales by 3.7%. In Japan, PM has announced snap elections for 8 Feb 2026, with hopes to garner a majority in the lower house.

Barring Shanghai Comp, other global indices closed lower amidst threats of additional tariffs on European nations by the US, fuelling trade tensions and adding to the uncertainty in the global market. Amongst other indices, Hang Seng and Nikkei dropped the most. Sensex too slipped with losses in real estate and oil & gas stocks. It is trading lower today in line with Asian stocks.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Except INR and JPY, other global currencies closed higher against US$. DXY remained steady, amidst escalating trade tensions between US and Europe. INR fell despite lower oil prices and given strong US$ demand from metal importers. It is trading weaker today; other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Global yields closed mixed. Japan’s 10Y bond yield jumped to its 27-year high, as PM Sanae Takaichi announced snap elections, to be held on 8 Feb 2026. Investors are now eyeing BoJ’s guidance on rate trajectory, due this Friday, and its revised growth projections for further cues on rates. India’s 10Y also rose, by 1bps to 6.68%, tracking global cues. It is trading unchanged at 6.68% today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Oil prices fell a tad, as tensions over Iran have eased a little.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

US ADP employment data shows that for the week ending 27 Dec 2025, private sector added 8,000 jobs per week, down from previously estimated 11,500 jobs added. Investors are also closely monitoring revival in trade tensions between the US and Europe. As a retaliatory measure, news reports indicate that Danish pension fund AkademikerPension, has announced that it will divest all its US treasury holdings (worth US$ 100mn) by the end of this month. Separately in UK, data shows that employment fell by 43k in Dec’24, and unemployment rate remained unchanged (from Nov’25) in Dec’25 at 5.1%—near its 4-year high. Employment in shops, restaurants and hotels fell the most. Wage growth also slowed a tad to 4.5% in Q4CY25 versus 4.6% in Q3. In Germany ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 59.6 in Jan’26 from 45.8 in Dec’25, on the hopes of pick up in public spending.

Except Shanghai Comp, other global indices closed lower as trade tensions intensified between the US and EU. US indices registered biggest single day decline since Oct'25 given renewed selling pressure. Sensex slipped by 1.4% given concerns around global trade and mixed quarterly earnings. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian indices are trading mixed.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Global currencies closed mixed. Dollar index weakened led by ongoing geopolitical tensions. EUR rose the most by 0.7%. INR continued to extend losses, amidst persistent FPI outflows and higher oil prices. It is trading lower today as it breached the 91/US$ mark. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Except China and India, other major global yields ended higher. 10Y yield in Japan rose by 9bps—to its highest since early Feb’99. US 10Y yield also inched up as investors evaluate revival in trade tensions between US and Europe. India’s 10Y fell by 1bps to 6.67%, even as oil prices inched up. It is trading further lower today at 6.66%.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: US markets were closed on 19 Jan 2026

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 14 Jan and 16 Jan 2026

Oil prices rose, tracking supply concerns from Kazakhstan and healthy demand from China.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Recently, EU Parliament called off a vote to ratify trade deal with the US. The vote was due on 26-27 Jan, aiming to lower tariffs for import of US industrial goods as part of trade agreement earlier negotiated. Following this, US President Donald Trump announced that a concept deal has been worked out with NATO regarding Greenland. If this deal goes through, then US will not impose additional tariffs on European nations from 1 Feb. On the macro front, UK’s CPI rose to 3.4% (YoY) in Dec’25 from 3.2% in Nov’25. In MoM terms as well, pressure is seeing building up (0.4% versus -0.2%), led by alcohol and tobacco and transport. Domestically, RBI released its monthly bulletin, in which it reaffirms that despite global economic tensions, India remains on path to stay the fastest growing major economy. Both urban and rural growth indicators are showing continued upward momentum.

Barring Nikkei and domestic indices, other global indices rebounded as tariff threats on EU nations were averted amidst news of ‘new framework deal’. US indices registered gains supported by strong earnings from banks. Sensex ended lower with deep losses noted in consumer durables and banking stocks. However, it is trading higher today, while other Asian indices are trading lower.

Table 1 – Stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Global currencies closed lower. Dollar index recovered as risk sentiment improved amidst easing global trade tensions. INR slipped to a record low, given rising oil prices and sustained FPI outflows. It is trading stronger today while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

Table 2 – Currencies

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Except UK and Germany, other major global yields ended lower. 10Y yield in Japan and US fell the most. Investors reacted to news of a framework being agreed upon for Greenland and possibility of US not imposing additional tariffs on European nations from next month. India’s 10Y fell by 2bps to 6.65%, following global cues. It is trading steady at the same level (6.65%) today.

Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 4 – Short term rates

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 5 – Liquidity

Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

Table 6 – Capital market flows

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Note: Mutual Fund data as of 16 Jan and 19 Jan 2026

Oil prices rose further, awaiting more clarity on global trade tensions.

Table 7 – Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research