Economic Weekly Wrap
13 Oct 2025 - 17 Oct 2025
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13 October 2025
Asset classes at the end of last week reacted to revival in trade war between US and China. US announced 100% tariffs on imports from China w.e.f 1 Nov 2025, after China tightened rules regarding exports of its rare earth elements. As a result, stock markets, sovereign yields and oil prices took a hit. However, more recently, President Donald Trump has hinted that there might be scope for negotiations between the 2 countries, which might support market revival this week. Separately, University of Michigan consumer survey noted a slight dip in sentiment in Oct’25 (55) versus last month (55.1), as consumers were less optimistic about the future (51.2 versus 51.7). However, 1Y ahead inflation expectations came down to 4.6% (4.7% in Sep’25). Domestically, investors await release of CPI data later today, which is expected to come in at 1.2%.
Barring domestic indices, other global indices ended lower. In the US, indices inched down with deep losses as US President warned of new 100% tariffs on China. With this, the trade tensions between US and China have resurfaced. On the other hand, Sensex rose by 0.4% with gains in real estate and banking stocks. It is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets.
Table 1 – Stock markets
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,358 45,480 (1.9) S & P 500 6,735 6,553 (2.7) FTSE 9,509 9,427 (0.9) Nikkei 48,580 48,089 (1.0) Hang Seng 26,753 26,290 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,934 3,897 (0.9) Sensex 82,172 82,501 0.4 Nifty 25,182 25,285 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Except CNY, other global currencies strengthened against the dollar. DXY fell by 0.6% tracking comments by US President on tariffs. Yen firmed up as political developments are providing some stability. INR rose amidst lower oil prices. It is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1564 1.1619 0.5 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3304 1.3360 0.4 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 153.07 151.19 1.2 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.79 88.70 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1300 7.1353 (0.1) DXY Index 99.54 98.98 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields fell, reacting to re-escalation of trade war between US and China. US 10Y yield fell by 11bps. Investors also tracked lower than anticipated 1yr ahead inflation expectations of consumers (University of Michigan survey). India’s 10Y yield rose a tad, even as oil prices fell. However, following global cues, it is trading lower at 6.52% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.14 4.03 (11) UK 4.75 4.68 (7) Germany 2.70 2.64 (6) Japan 1.70 1.69 (1) China 1.85 1.86 1 India 6.52 6.54 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.42 5.43 1 Tbill-182 days 5.52 5.51 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.53 5.54 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.67 5.62 (5) India OIS-2M 5.51 5.50 (1) India OIS-9M 5.41 5.43 2 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.12 4.13 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.6 1.4 (0.2) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
8-10-2025 9-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 263.0 396.2 133.3 Debt 179.9 125.2 (54.7) Equity 83.1 271.0 188.0 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,898.1) (3,122.4) (1,224.3) Debt (931.4) (2,392.4) (1,461.0) Equity (966.7) (730.0) 236.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 7 Oct and 8 Oct 2025
Oil prices fell sharply, as peace deal between Israel-Hamas comes into effect.
Table 7 – Commodities
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 65.2 62.7 (3.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3,976.9 4,017.8 1.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,842.6 10,486.8 (3.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,077.3 3,102.0 0.8 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,798.5 2,748.0 (1.8) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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14 October 2025
Trade data from China indicates that its exports made significant gains last month. Exports were up by 8.3% in Sep’25 (est.: 6.6%) from 6-month low of 4.4% in Aug’25. Decline in exports to the US (-27%) was offset by higher exports to Southeast Asian economies (15.6%), EU (10.4%) and Africa (56.4%). Imports also rose by 7.4% (est.: 1.8%) in Sep’25 from 1.3% in Aug’25. This is the strongest rise since Apr’24. Analysts are now hoping for a conclusive dialogue between US and China, before US’ 100% tariffs on China come into effect from 1 Nov 2025. Separately, Singapore Q3CY25 GDP came in at 2.9% (est.: 1.9%), slowing from 4.9% growth in Q2, due to weakness in manufacturing sector. Domestically, CPI in Sep’25 eased to 1.5% from 2.1% in Aug’25. However, core inflation rose to 4.5% from 4.2% in Aug’25, driven by volatility in international gold prices.
Global indices ended mixed. US indices rebounded after US President Donald Trump softened his tone on China, easing investor concerns on US-China trade tensions. Hang Seng was down amidst growing volatility and sell-off in technology stocks. Sensex too closed lower, with losses in capital goods stocks. However, it is trading higher today; Asian markets are trading mixed.
Table 1 – Stock markets
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 45,480 46,068 1.3 S & P 500 6,553 6,655 1.6 FTSE 9,427 9,443 0.2 Nikkei 48,580 48,089 (1.0) Hang Seng 26,290 25,889 (1.5) Shanghai Comp 3,897 3,890 (0.2) Sensex 82,501 82,327 (0.2) Nifty 25,285 25,227 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in Japan on 13.10.2025
Except CNY and INR, other global currencies weakened against the dollar. DXY drifted higher as US-China trade tensions receded. Euro witnessed some pressure given the political uncertainty in certain region. INR ended flat. It is trading lower today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1619 1.1570 (0.4) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3360 1.3333 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 151.19 152.28 (0.7) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.70 88.68 0 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1353 7.1309 0.1 DXY Index 98.98 99.27 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in the US and Japan on 13.10.2025
Global 10Y yields closed lower. UK 10Y yield fell to near 3-week low, as investors reacted to news of possible tax hike in the upcoming autumn budget to be presented in Nov’25. This will strain economic recovery further. India’s 10Y yield was down by 2bps and is trading further lower today at 6.51%. Softer inflation print has helped support investor sentiments.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.14 4.03 (11) UK 4.68 4.66 (2) Germany 2.64 2.64 (1) Japan 1.70 1.69 (1) China 1.86 1.85 (1) India 6.54 6.52 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in the US and Japan on 13.10.2025
Table 4 – Short term rates
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.43 5.42 (1) Tbill-182 days 5.51 5.51 0 Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.54 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.62 5.64 2 India OIS-2M 5.50 5.51 1 India OIS-9M 5.43 5.42 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.12 4.13 1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.4 1.3 (0.1) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
9-10-2025 10-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 396.2 414.5 18.3 Debt 125.2 105.2 (20.0) Equity 271.0 309.3 38.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,898.1) (3,122.4) (1,224.3) Debt (931.4) (2,392.4) (1,461.0) Equity (966.7) (730.0) 236.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 7 Oct and 8 Oct 2025
Oil prices rose, amidst hopes of possible negotiation between US and China.
Table 7 – Commodities
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.7 63.3 0.9 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,017.8 4,110.3 2.3 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,486.8 11,047.3 5.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,102.0 3,222.6 3.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,748.0 2,763.0 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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15 October 2025
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech has indicated that downside risks to employment have increased and unemployment is expected to inch up in the nearterm. Quantitative tightening program, driven by reducing bond holdings, is also being concluded. Risks to inflation persists, primarily due to pass through of tariffs and not due to any other underlying reasons. Recently, port fees hiked by both US and China has come into effect, along with US tariffs on imports of timber and kitchen cabinets (which also mainly comes from China). Gold prices as result have touched record high. Separately, in China, domestic demand remains weak, with CPI declining by (-) 0.3% in Sep’25, following (-) 0.4% drop in Aug’25. PPI fell by (-) 2.3% versus (-) 2.9% last month. In Germany, investor morale remains subdued with ZEW current sentiment index falling to (-) 80 in Oct’25 from (-) 76.4 in Sep’25.
Global indices ended mixed. Dow Jones edged up as investors monitored dovish commentary by Fed Chair, supported by earnings reports. Shanghai Comp continued to decline. Lower CPI and PPI in China added to the deflationary concerns. Sensex was down with losses in consumer durable stocks. However, it is trading higher today in line with Asian markets.
Table 1 – Stock markets
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,068 46,270 0.4 S & P 500 6,655 6,644 (0.2) FTSE 9,443 9,453 0.1 Nikkei 48,089 46,847 (2.6) Hang Seng 25,889 25,441 (1.7) Shanghai Comp 3,890 3,865 (0.6) Sensex 82,327 82,030 (0.4) Nifty 25,227 25,146 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in Japan on 13.10.2025
Except EUR and JPY, other global currencies closed lower. DXY retreated with expectation of further easing. Yen strengthened amidst growing safe-haven demand amidst lingering US-China trade tensions. INR fell despite lower oil prices. It is trading higher today, other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Table 2 – Currencies
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1570 1.1607 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3333 1.3320 (0.1) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 152.28 151.84 0.3 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.68 88.80 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1309 7.1372 (0.1) DXY Index 99.27 99.05 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in the US and Japan on 13.10.2025
Global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y yield ended flat. Impact of safe-haven demand and increased possibility of Fed rate cuts was offset by concerns regarding the outcome of US-China trade war and government shutdown. India’s 10Y yield was down by 1bps, tracking global cues and oil prices. It is trading even lower today at 6.49%.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.03 4.03 0 UK 4.66 4.59 (7) Germany 2.64 2.61 (3) Japan 1.69 1.65 (3) China 1.85 1.84 (1) India 6.52 6.51 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in the US and Japan on 13.10.2025
Table 4 – Short term rates
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.42 5.42 0 Tbill-182 days 5.51 5.48 (3) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.51 (3) G-Sec 2Y 5.64 5.76 12 India OIS-2M 5.51 5.52 1 India OIS-9M 5.42 5.42 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.13 4.15 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Markets were closed in the US on 13.10.2025
Table 5 – Liquidity
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.3 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
10-10-2025 13-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 414.5 493.2 78.7 Debt 105.2 92.8 (12.5) Equity 309.3 400.5 91.2 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (3,199.9) 2,465.6 5,665.5 Debt (3,645.8) 1,019.9 4,665.7 Equity 445.9 1,445.7 999.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 9 Oct and 10 Oct 2025
Oil prices fell, as IEA projects higher supply and lower demand in both CY25/26.
Table 7 – Commodities
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.3 62.4 (1.5) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,110.3 4,142.9 0.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 11,047.3 10,632.9 (3.8) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,222.6 3,028.7 (6.0) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,763.0 2,737.5 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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16 October 2025
In India, trade deficit widened to US$ 32.15 bn (13-month high) in Sep’25 much higher than anticipated. This was led by acceleration in imports (US$ 68.53 bn from US$ 61.59 bn), outpacing exports (US$ 36.38 bn from US$ 35.10 bn in Aug’25) in Sep’25. Gold imports almost doubled to US$ 9.6 bn (from US$ 5.14 bn) amidst strong demand and higher prices. Separately, MPC in its minutes noted that there is room for rate cut as inflation outlook turns more benign. Furthermore, while domestic growth remains strong, trade and tariff related uncertainties remain a risk to growth and investment. Separately, industrial output in Japan (-1.6% from -0.04%) contracted amidst weak global demand in Aug’25. In Europe, industrial production slowed down to 1.1% in Aug’25 from 2% in Jul’25 on a YoY basis.
Barring Dow Jones (flat) and FTSE (lower), other global indices closed higher. S&P 500 gained supported by strong earnings reports from the banking sector. 7 out of 11 subsectors registered gains led by real estate and utilities. Both Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rebounded. Sensex too ended higher with strong gains in real estate and consumer durable stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian markets.
Table 1 – Stock markets
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,270 46,253 0 S & P 500 6,644 6,671 0.4 FTSE 9,453 9,425 (0.3) Nikkei 46,847 47,673 1.8 Hang Seng 25,441 25,911 1.8 Shanghai Comp 3,865 3,912 1.2 Sensex 82,030 82,605 0.7 Nifty 25,146 25,324 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global currencies gained. DXY fell tracking dovish comments from the Fed Chair and US-China trade issues. Amongst major currencies, INR appreciated the most supported by gains in local equities and lower oil prices. It is trading further stronger today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Table 2 – Currencies
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1607 1.1647 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3320 1.3403 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 151.84 151.05 0.5 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.80 88.07 0.8 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1372 7.1270 0.1 DXY Index 99.05 98.79 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Global 10Y yields closed mixed. 10Y yield in the UK fell the most by 5bps, on expectations of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget. Germany’s 10Y yield fell tracking weakness in industrial production. India’s 10Y yield dipped by 3bps to 6.48% as oil prices continued to decline. It is trading higher at 6.49% today
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.03 4.03 0 UK 4.59 4.54 (5) Germany 2.61 2.57 (4) Japan 1.65 1.65 0 China 1.84 1.84 1 India 6.51 6.48 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.42 5.43 1 Tbill-182 days 5.48 5.53 5 Tbill-364 days 5.51 5.54 3 G-Sec 2Y 5.76 5.75 (1) India OIS-2M 5.52 5.51 (1) India OIS-9M 5.42 5.41 0 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.15 4.19 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.3 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
13-10-2025 14-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 493.2 68.3 (424.9) Debt 92.8 133.3 40.5 Equity 400.5 (65.0) (465.4) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,465.6 (621.0) (3,086.5) Debt 1,019.9 (605.6) (1,625.5) Equity 1,445.7 (15.4) (1,461.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 10 Oct and 13 Oct 2025
Oil prices fell to a 5-month low on US-China trade tensions.
Table 7 – Commodities
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.4 61.9 (0.8) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,142.9 4,207.5 1.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,632.9 10,668.9 0.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 3,028.7 3,087.8 2.0 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,737.5 2,746.0 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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17 October 2025
In UK, the economy expanded by 1.3% in Aug’25, much slower pace than anticipated against a growth of 1.5% in Jul’25 (revised upwards). On a MoM basis, British economy rose by 0.1% in Aug’25, same pace as Jul’25. Production edged up by 0.4%, while construction was down by 0.3% for the same period. The economy is expected to witness some slowdown on business investment and consumer spending, given the likely announcement of higher taxes and lower spending by government. Separately, in the US, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined to 12.8 in Oct’25, lowest level since Apr’25. On policy front, investors are pricing in a rate cut in Oct’25 based on recent dovish commentary by both Fed Officials, Christopher Waller and the new Governor Stephen Miran, as they push for easing.
Global indices closed mixed. US indices ended lower as investors turned wary amidst signs of weakness noted in regional banks. 10 out of 11 subsectors within S&P 500 registered a decline led by financials and energy. Nikkei rose by 1.3% supported by optimism in AI and chip related stocks. Sensex advanced further with strong gains in consumer durable and auto stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian markets
Table 1 – Stock markets
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 46,253 45,952 (0.7) S & P 500 6,671 6,629 (0.6) FTSE 9,425 9,436 0.1 Nikkei 47,673 48,278 1.3 Hang Seng 25,911 25,889 (0.1) Shanghai Comp 3,912 3,916 0.1 Sensex 82,605 83,468 1.0 Nifty 25,324 25,585 1.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY softened amidst worries over credit quality in the US. JPY rose the most amidst safe-haven demand and monitoring changing political landscape in the region. INR also appreciated by 0.3%, supported by better FII data. It is trading stronger today, while other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Table 2 – Currencies
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1647 1.1687 0.3 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3403 1.3434 0.2 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 151.05 150.43 0.4 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 88.07 87.83 0.3 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1270 7.1246 0 DXY Index 98.79 98.34 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
US 10Y yield softened the most monitoring risk off sentiment amidst woes concerning lending standards in the US. Fed officials also remained broadly dovish on future trajectory of rates. UK’s 10Y yield also softened monitoring slew of macro releases. India’s 10Y yield inched up ahead of the auction results. It is trading at 6.48% today.
Table 3 – Bond 10Y yield
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change, bps US 4.03 3.97 (5) UK 4.54 4.50 (4) Germany 2.57 2.57 0 Japan 1.65 1.67 1 China 1.84 1.84 (1) India 6.48 6.50 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 4 – Short term rates
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.43 5.43 0 Tbill-182 days 5.53 5.52 (1) Tbill-364 days 5.54 5.52 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.75 5.77 2 India OIS-2M 5.51 5.52 1 India OIS-9M 5.41 5.42 1 SONIA int rate benchmark 3.97 3.97 0 US SOFR 4.19 4.29 10 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 5 – Liquidity
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.4 0.1 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research
Table 6 – Capital market flows
14-10-2025 15-10-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 68.3 477.7 409.4 Debt 133.3 398.9 265.6 Equity (65.0) 78.8 143.8 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (621.0) 3,192.8 3,813.8 Debt (605.6) 927.3 1,532.9 Equity (15.4) 2,265.5 2,280.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 13 Oct and 14 Oct 2025
Oil prices fell weighed down by trade frictions and geopolitical developments.
Table 7 – Commodities
15-10-2025 16-10-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 61.9 61.1 (1.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 4,207.5 4,326.6 2.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 10,668.9 10,635.8 (0.3) Zinc (US$/MT) 3,087.8 3,110.2 0.7 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2,746.0 2,788.5 1.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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