Banking Mantra

Economic Weekly Wrap
05 May 2025 - 09 May 2025

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  • 05 May 2025

    Signs of possible de-escalation of trade tensions between US and China supported global markets. Solid jobs report in Apr’25 (addition of 177k jobs) turned out to better than estimates, and unemployment rate also remained unchanged at 4.2%. With this, the investors expected Fed will not rush in to cut rates and will likely wait till Jul’25 to cut rates again. Separately, in Japan, unemployment inched up to 2.5% in Mar’25 from 2.4% in Feb’25. Additionally, the job to applicant ratio rose to 1.26 in Mar (1.24 in Feb’25). In South Korea, headline inflation remained flat at 2.1% in Apr’25 and opening up room for Bank of Korea to resume the easing cycle. Inflation in Eurozone rose 2.2% in Apr’25 much higher than expected 2.1%, with core inflation surging to 2.7% (from 2.4% in Mar’25). Investors will closely track upcoming policy meet by Fed this week, along with corporate earnings.


    Major global indices advanced higher. Easing trade tensions between US AND China along with strong jobs data boosted investor sentiments. FTSE continued its winning streak and closed in green supported by strong earnings report. Sensex too ended in green with gains in oil & gas and banking stocks. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      01-05-2025 02-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones 40,753 41,317 1.4
    S & P 500 5,604 5,687 1.5
    FTSE 8,497 8,596 1.2
    Nikkei 36,452 36,831 1.0
    Hang Seng 22,119 22,505 1.7
    Shanghai Comp 3,287 3,279 (0.2)
    Sensex 80,242 80,502 0.3
    Nifty 24,334 24,347 0.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Markets in India, China and Hong Kong were closed on 01 May 2025


    Global currencies ended mixed. The Greenback softened even as investors monitored news of possible trade negotiations between the US and China. EUR rose amidst news of higher core inflation. INR depreciated despite lower oil prices. It is trading stronger today, and other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      01-05-2025 02-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1290 1.1297 0.1
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3278 1.3272 0
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 145.39 144.96 0.3
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.50 84.56 (0.1)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2714 7.2714 0
    DXY Index 100.25 100.03 (0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │Note: Brackets indicate depreciation against US$ │Markets in India and China were closed on 01 May


    Global yields largely closed higher. US 10Y yield surged supported by stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls for Apr’25. Yields in Germany’ and UK climbed up by 9bps and 3bps respectively. Japan’s 10Y yield inched up as BoJ kept rates on hold. India’s 10Y yield ended flat and is trading at 6.35% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      01-05-2025 02-05-2025 Change, bps
    US 4.22 4.31 9
    UK 4.48 4.51 3
    Germany 2.44 2.53 9
    Japan 1.26 1.26 1
    China 1.63 1.63 0
    India 6.36 6.35 0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Markets in India and China were closed on 01 May 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      01-05-2025 02-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.89 5.90 1
    Tbill-182 days 5.92 5.91 (1)
    Tbill-364 days 5.90 5.89 (1)
    G-Sec 2Y 6.02 6.01 (1)
    India OIS-2M 5.87 5.86 (1)
    India OIS-9M 5.66 5.65 (1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 4.46 4.46 0
    US SOFR 4.41 4.39 (2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Markets in India were closed on 01 May 2025


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      30-04-2025 02-04-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.3 1.6 0.3
    Reverse Repo 0 0 0
    Repo* 0.3 0.3 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO │ Note: Markets in India were closed on 01 May 2025


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      29-04-2025 30-04-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 43.4 (191.5) (234.9)
    Debt (232.6) (211.9) 20.7
    Equity 276.0 20.4 (255.6)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,083.0) (7,267.8) (5,184.8)
    Debt (5,390.5) (8,370.3) (2,979.8)
    Equity 3,307.5 1,102.5 (2,205.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 Apr and 29 Apr 2025


    Oil prices slipped as OPEC+ agreed for increasing production even in June.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      01-05-2025 02-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.1 61.3 (1.4)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3239.2 3240.5 0
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9239.9 9385.7 1.6
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2540.6 2570.4 1.2
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2416.0 2431.5 0.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 06 May 2025

    Global growth concerns resurfaced amidst the uncertainty on tariff front after US President Trump announced new tariffs. In the upcoming policy meet, Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Investors expect the rate cut to begin from Jul’25 with 2 rate cuts factored in for CY25. US ISM PMI edged up to 51.6 in Apr from 50.8 in Mar’25 with employment index inching up to 49 (from 46.2) signalling some improvement in labor market. Separately, in China, the Caixin services PMI slipped to 7-month low to 50.7 in Apr’25 from 51.9 in Mar’25. This was on account of the ongoing trade conflict between US and China, with slower growth noted in new business. Despite higher input costs, pass on to the consumers was lower. Overall composite PMI dropped to 51.1 in Apr from 51.8 in Mar’25.


    Global indices ended mixed. US indices closed in red as uncertainty related to tariff returned back to the fold and ahead of Fed’s rate decision scheduled this week. Investors expect a status quo on rates. Sensex continued its winning streak with oil & gas and auto stocks amongst the major gainers. It is trading higher today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones 41,317 41,219 (0.2)
    S & P 500 5,687 5,650 (0.6)
    FTSE 8,497 8,596 1.2
    Nikkei 36,452 36,831 1.0
    Hang Seng 22,119 22,505 1.7
    Shanghai Comp 3,287 3,279 (0.2)
    Sensex 80,502 80,797 0.4
    Nifty 24,347 24,461 0.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: UK and China’s market were shut on 5th May 2025


    Note: Major global currencies ended higher. Dollar index slipped below the 100 mark amidst the ongoing volatility in the currency market with the Taiwan dollar gaining by over 8% in the span of 2 days. JPY gained given higher demand for safe haven asset class. INR appreciated amidst lower oil prices. However, it is trading lower today, other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1297 1.1315 0.2
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3272 1.3296 0.2
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.96 143.70 0.9
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.56 84.25 0.4
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2714 7.2714 0
    DXY Index 100.03 99.83 (0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Brackets indicate depreciation against US$ │ Note: UK and China’s market shut on 5th May 2025


    US 10Y yield firmed up amidst better print reflected in ISM services data. Germany’s 10Y yield softened as ECB official hinted at more rate cuts. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps. The liquidity support rolled out by RBI is giving yields the desired comfort. It is trading at 6.34% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change, bps
    US 4.31 4.34 4
    UK 4.48 4.51 3
    Germany 2.53 2.52 (2)
    Japan 1.26 1.26 1
    China 1.63 1.63 0
    India 6.35 6.33 (3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: UK and China’s market were shut on 5th May 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.90 5.88 (2)
    Tbill-182 days 5.91 5.90 (1)
    Tbill-364 days 5.89 5.87 (2)
    G-Sec 2Y 6.01 5.98 (3)
    India OIS-2M 5.86 5.87 1
    India OIS-9M 5.65 5.66 1
    SONIA int rate benchmark 4.46 4.46 0
    US SOFR 4.41 4.39 (2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.6 1.2 (0.4)
    Reverse Repo 0 0 0
    Repo* 0.3 0.3 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      30-04-2025 02-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) (191.5) 372.6 564.1
    Debt (211.9) 37.9 249.8
    Equity 20.4 334.7 314.3
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (7,267.8) (2,039.1) 5,228.7
    Debt (8,370.3) (4,052.1) 4,318.3
    Equity 1,102.5 2,012.9 910.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 Apr and 29 Apr 2025


    Oil prices eased as Saudi Arabia hinted at increase in supply.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 61.3 60.2 (1.7)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3240.5 3334.1 2.9
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9239.9 9385.7 1.6
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2540.6 2570.4 1.2
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2416.0 2431.5 0.6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 07 May 2025

    Ahead of the crucial meeting with US, China’s Central Bank PBoC has reduced lending rate by 25bps to 1.5%, its 7-day reverse purchase agreement is also down to 1.4% (by 10bps). Even the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) has been lowered by 50bps to 6.2%. The measures have been taken to safeguard the economy from any adverse impact related to tariffs and also act as an aid in economic recovery. China has lately been witnessing slowdown concerns, evident from recent data (slower services PMI and disappointing factory activity). On the domestic front, India and UK have signed a free trade agreement which is expected to double the bilateral trade in the next decade (existing US$ 20 bn) and provide liberalised access. Markets this week will closely track upcoming Fed meet and risk of geo-political uncertainty.


    Global indices ended mixed. US indices closed lower awaiting rate decision and uncertainty pertaining to tariffs on pharma. Investors also monitored subdued corporate earnings. Sensex closed in red with losses in real estate and power stocks. It is trading lower today, while other Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones 41,219 40,829 (0.9)
    S & P 500 5,650 5,607 (0.8)
    FTSE 8,596 8,597 0
    Nikkei 36,452 36,831 1.0
    Hang Seng 22,505 22,663 0.7
    Shanghai Comp 3,279 3,316 1.1
    Sensex 80,797 80,641 (0.2)
    Nifty 24,461 24,380 (0.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: UK, Japan and China’s market were shut on 5th May 2025


    Except INR, other global currencies rose against the dollar. DXY declined ahead of the Fed policy meet. JPY appreciated for the 3rd straight session and rose by 0.9%. EUR rose tracking an improvement in Eurozone’s composite PMI. INR depreciated and is trading further weaker today amidst an escalation in geopolitical tensions. Other Asian currencies are also trading lower.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1315 1.1370 0.5
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3296 1.3369 0.5
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 143.70 142.45 0.9
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.25 84.44 (0.2)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2714 7.2190 0.7
    DXY Index 99.83 99.24 (0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: Brackets indicate depreciation against US$ │ UK, Japan and China’s market shut on 5th May 2025


    Global yields ended mixed. US 10Y yield slipped by 5bps amidst strong auction demand. Investors also tracked US-China trade developments. Yields in Germany edged up by 2bps as conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected as German Chancellor. India’s 10Y yield firmed up by 3bps, and is trading further higher today tracking geo-political developments.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change, bps
    US 4.34 4.29 (5)
    UK 4.51 4.51 1
    Germany 2.52 2.54 2
    Japan 1.26 1.26 0
    China 1.63 1.63 0
    India 6.33 6.35 3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research │ Note: UK, Japan and China’s market were shut on 5th May 2025


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.88 5.89 1
    Tbill-182 days 5.90 5.90 0
    Tbill-364 days 5.87 5.87 0
    G-Sec 2Y 5.98 5.99 1
    India OIS-2M 5.87 5.86 (1)
    India OIS-9M 5.66 5.65 (1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 4.46 4.46 0
    US SOFR 4.39 4.36 (3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.2 1.4 0.2
    Reverse Repo 0 0 0
    Repo* 0.3 0.3 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      02-05-2025 05-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 372.6 325.1 (47.6)
    Debt 37.9 111.8 73.9
    Equity 334.7 213.2 (121.5)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,039.1) 3,725.0 5,764.1
    Debt (4,052.1) 26.7 4,078.7
    Equity 2,012.9 3,698.3 1,685.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 Apr and 2 May 2025


    Oil prices surged amidst growing demand from Europe and China.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 60.2 62.2 3.2
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3334.1 3431.8 2.9
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9385.7 9559.8 1.9
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2570.4 2593.2 0.9
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2431.5 2427.0 (0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 08 May 2025

    In line with expectations, US Fed unanimously voted to keep the interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. Fed Chair Powell cautioned of the growing risk of unemployment and inflation. He noted that ‘uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further’. Overall, Fed is expected to be in a ‘wait and watch’ mode. He also highlighted if the tariff announced earlier are sustained, that could possibly result in slower economic growth and higher unemployment along with elevated inflation. He reiterated that Fed remains committed to its dual mandate. Analysts expect the next rate cut could possibly be in either July’25 or Sep’25 with another pause likely in the Jun’25 meet. With this, the attention would now shift towards upcoming BoE meeting wherein a 25bps cut is expected amidst growing tariff risk.


    Barring FTSE, global indices closed higher. US stocks monitored Fed policy decision. A wait and watch approach would give further breather. Despite ending lower, FTSE would get support from likely trade deal between US and UK. Shanghai Comp firmed up driven by policy measures. Sensex inched up a tad. It is trading lower today; Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones 40,829 41,114 0.7
    S & P 500 5,607 5,631 0.4
    FTSE 8,597 8,559 (0.4)
    Nikkei 36,831 36,780 (0.1)
    Hang Seng 22,663 22,692 0.1
    Shanghai Comp 3,316 3,343 0.8
    Sensex 80,641 80,747 0.1
    Nifty 24,380 24,414 0.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Market in Japan was shut on 6th May 2025


    Global currencies ended lower. DXY strengthened after Fed downplayed the possibilities of rate cuts. Additionally, better than expected US consumer credit data provided support. EUR slipped amidst weaker than expected retail sales. INR depreciated to its lowest this month given heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is trading stronger today, other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1370 1.1301 (0.6)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3369 1.3292 (0.6)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.45 143.83 1.0
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.44 84.83 (0.5)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2190 7.2275 (0.1)
    DXY Index 99.24 99.61 0.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Germany’s 10Y yield fell at the sharpest pace amidst risk off sentiment as counter measures by European Commission is expected against US tariffs. UK’s 10Y yield also fell considerably amidst expectation of dovish policy from BoE. India’s 10Y yield fell a tad. It is trading at 6.32% today while the new benchmark security is at 6.3%.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change, bps
    US 4.29 4.27 (3)
    UK 4.51 4.46 (5)
    Germany 2.54 2.48 (6)
    Japan 1.26 1.31 4
    China 1.63 1.64 1
    India 6.35 6.34 (1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.89 5.87 (2)
    Tbill-182 days 5.90 5.88 (2)
    Tbill-364 days 5.87 5.85 (2)
    G-Sec 2Y 5.99 5.92 (7)
    India OIS-2M 5.86 5.84 (2)
    India OIS-9M 5.65 5.62 (3)
    SONIA int rate benchmark 4.46 4.46 0
    US SOFR 4.33 4.32 (1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.4 1.4 0
    Reverse Repo 0 0 0
    Repo* 0.3 0.3 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      05-05-2025 06-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 325.1 422.7 97.6
    Debt 111.8 (51.8) (163.6)
    Equity 213.2 474.5 261.3
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,039.1) 3,725.0 5,764.1
    Debt (4,052.1) 26.7 4,078.7
    Equity 2,012.9 3,698.3 1,685.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 Apr and 2 May 2025


    Oil prices eased as bearish sentiments reigned in over higher supply.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 62.2 61.1 (1.7)
    Gold (US$/Troy Ounce) 3431.8 3364.5 (2.0)
    Copper (US$/MT) 9559.8 9441.2 (1.2)
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2593.2 2579.6 (0.5)
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2427.0 2382.5 (1.8)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 09 May 2025

    Amidst tariff uncertainty and citing concerns around global economic slowdown, Bank of England lowered rate by 25bps to 4.25% with a 5-4 majority. Notably, the committee has revised growth projection upwards from 0.75% to 1% for CY25 but trimmed for next year to 1.25% (From 1.5%). Governor Bailey noted that rate path was ‘downwards’ but mentioned that any future rate cut will be more ‘gradual and careful’. On inflation, there is some cool-off expected with a forecast of 3.5% this year (previously 3.75%). The decision comes ahead of the much anticipated US-UK trade deal. In China, despite tariff headwinds, exports rose by 8.1% in Apr’25 partly due to transhipment through third party contracts, while imports dropped by 0.2%. Separately, in Japan, early exports (20-days in Apr) slowed down to 2.3% (4.2% in Mar’25) led by weaker growth in auto, steel and mineral fuels.


    Barring FTSE and Indian indices, other global indices closed higher. US stocks gained as US-UK trade deal lifted investors’ sentiments. Focus will turn towards US-China deal amidst ongoing negotiations. Sensex closed in red with losses in real estate stocks. It is trading lower today amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones 41,114 41,368 0.6
    S & P 500 5,631 5,664 0.6
    FTSE 8,559 8,532 (0.3)
    Nikkei 36,780 36,929 0.4
    Hang Seng 22,692 22,776 0.4
    Shanghai Comp 3,343 3,352 0.3
    Sensex 80,747 80,335 (0.5)
    Nifty 24,414 24,274 (0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Global currencies ended weaker. DXY rose by 1% as US-UK finalised a trade deal. JPY depreciated the most, as hopes of further rate hikes receded. INR marked its largest single day fall since Feb’23 as geo-political tensions escalated. It is trading further weaker today.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1301 1.1228 (0.6)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3292 1.3246 (0.3)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 143.83 145.91 (1.4)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 84.83 85.72 (1.0)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.2275 7.2428 (0.2)
    DXY Index 99.61 100.64 1.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Except China, other global yields ended higher as US-UK trade deal boosted sentiments. 10Y yields in US and UK edged up by 11bps and 9bps respectively. Trade negotiations between US and China, also supported yields. India’s 10Y yield rose by 6bps led by heightened geo-political tensions. It is trading further higher today, while the new benchmark security is trading at 6.39%.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change, bps
    US 4.27 4.38 11
    UK 4.46 4.55 9
    Germany 2.48 2.54 6
    Japan 1.31 1.34 3
    China 1.64 1.63 (1)
    India 6.34 6.40 6

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days 5.87 5.87 0
    Tbill-182 days 5.88 5.87 (1)
    Tbill-364 days 5.85 5.85 0
    G-Sec 2Y 5.92 6.03 11
    India OIS-2M 5.84 5.83 (1)
    India OIS-9M 5.62 5.68 6
    SONIA int rate benchmark 4.46 4.46 0
    US SOFR 4.32 4.30 (2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.4 1.3 (0.1)
    Reverse Repo 0 0 0
    Repo* 0.3 0.3 0

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      06-05-2025 07-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn) 422.7 181.5 (241.2)
    Debt (51.8) (167.5) (115.7)
    Equity 474.5 349.1 (125.4)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr) (2,069.3) (8,906.3) (6,837.0)
    Debt (5,113.7) (7,235.1) (2,121.5)
    Equity 3,044.4 (1,671.1) (4,715.5)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 5 May and 6 May 2025


    Oil prices rose by 2.8% as easing trade tensions boosted demand prospects.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      07-05-2025 08-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl) 61.1 62.8 2.8
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3364.5 3305.7 (1.7)
    Copper (US$/ MT) 9441.2 9477.3 0.4
    Zinc (US$/MT) 2579.6 2586.3 0.3
    Aluminium (US$/MT) 2382.5 2412.5 1.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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The views expressed in this research note are personal views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank of Baroda. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities of any entity. Bank of Baroda and/ or its Affiliates and its subsidiaries make no representation as to the accuracy; completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Bank of Baroda Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/ or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render Bank of Baroda Group liable in any manner whatsoever & Bank of Baroda Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time

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