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Global markets remained cautious in today’s trading session, eyeing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The repercussions of US-Israel joint military strikes on Iran have been visible across major asset classes. Oil prices are trading higher by 6.3% at ~US$ 77/bbl from the previous close of US$ 72/bbl. Gold also firmed up by 1.5% and is trading at US$ 5,357/troy ounce today.
The risk-off sentiment was also reflected in rising demand for sovereign asset classes. Among major macro releases, US PPI increased by 0.5% on a sequential basis. The UK’s GfK consumer index softened, while Germany’s CPI remained below the 2% mark. Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 45-month high in Feb’26, led by broad-based improvement in output, new orders, and employment.
On the domestic front, Feb’26 GST collection stood at Rs 1.83 lakh crore, reflecting buoyancy in economic activity.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
DXY weakened tracking a fall in US treasury yields. Among major currencies, CNY fell the most by 0.2%. INR depreciated due to rising oil prices and is trading above the 91/$ mark today. Other Asian currencies are also trading weaker.
Global 10Y yields fell sharply due to risk-off sentiment amid geopolitical tensions. US yields declined the most. Germany and UK yields also softened due to weaker macro data. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps and is currently trading at 6.69%.
Oil prices edged up tracking tensions between the US and Iran.
The elevated geopolitical risk continued to manoeuvre market sentiments, with a fresh wave of strikes in Tehran. As per reports, the reverberation of war also spread across Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. Global equity stocks declined across the board, with South Korean stocks falling the most since the global financial crisis of 2008.
The upward rally in oil continued. Over the last two trading sessions, oil prices rose by 15.1% and are trading higher by another 1% today at ~US$ 82/bbl, despite US assurances of safeguarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. DXY firmed up by 0.7%.
On the macro front, Australia’s GDP rose to 2.6% YoY in Q4 from 2.1% earlier. China’s manufacturing PMI edged down to 49 (from 49.3), while non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5 (from 49.4). Fed officials indicated a cautious stance on interest rates.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Indian markets were closed on 03-03-2026
Safe-haven demand pushed DXY higher as the Middle East crisis intensified. EUR depreciated by 0.6% due to rising Eurozone inflation in Feb’26. INR weakened to a record low due to rising oil prices. Other Asian currencies also traded weaker.
Except China (stable), global 10Y yields closed higher. UK yields rose the most, followed by Japan and Germany. Inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions impacted yields. India’s 10Y yield is currently at 6.72%.
Oil prices rose to a ~14-month high as the Middle East crisis escalated.
Global markets witnessed some recovery after the rout in the previous session. Correction was seen in South Korean stocks, with the KOSPI index rising by 9% compared to the previous session’s loss of -12%.
Oil prices steadied at US$ 81/bbl; however, they are trading higher by 3.2% at US$ 84/bbl today. Gold prices also inched up by 1%, along with gains in other metals.
On the macro front, US private payroll data (ADP employment change) showed improvement, rising by 63K in Feb’26 compared to a revised 11K last month. The ISM services index also increased to 56.1 from 53.8, driven by new orders. In the UK and Germany, services PMI remained broadly stable. Meanwhile, China set a modest growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026. Domestically, markets are closely monitoring developments in West Asia.
Except INR, other global currencies strengthened against the dollar. DXY eased despite rising US treasury yields. Investors continued monitoring geopolitical developments. INR depreciated to a record low due to rising oil prices but is trading stronger today along with other Asian currencies.
Except the US, global 10Y yields declined. Some risk-off sentiment still persists. In the US, stronger economic data pushed yields higher by 4bps. India’s 10Y yield remained stable and is currently at 6.68%.
Oil prices remained stable as the US President pledged support for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Global markets remained watchful of developments in the Middle East, with no signs of de-escalation. Oil prices continued their rally, ending the last session higher by 4.9% at US$ 85.4/bbl. Since last Friday, oil prices have increased by 17.8%.
Gold prices softened as the DXY strengthened on the back of better economic data. The Fed Beige Book pointed to cautious optimism and modest recovery in economic activity, while US jobless claims remained broadly stable.
In China, Premier Li Qiang highlighted additional policy support for growth amid a lower growth target. On the domestic front, the US granted a temporary waiver to India for importing Russian oil. This applies to crude and petroleum products loaded before 5 March and remains valid until 4 April, providing short-term relief.
DXY gained due to safe-haven demand amid continued Middle East tensions. Among major currencies, JPY depreciated the most. INR recovered from a record low due to possible RBI intervention but is trading weaker today in line with other Asian currencies.
Concerns over elevated inflation outweighed risk-off sentiment. UK’s 10Y yield rose sharply by 10bps, followed by Germany, the US, and Japan. Some central banks are considering tightening due to rising oil prices. India’s 10Y yield fell by 3bps and is currently at 6.65%.
Oil prices rose as hostilities between the US, Iran, and Israel continued.
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