Economic Weekly Wrap
02 June 2025 - 06 Jun 2025
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02 June 2025
In US, core PCE (excl food and fuel), Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation softened to 2.5% in Apr’25 from 2.7% in Mar’25. This further raises expectation of rate cut later during the year, if inflation continues to cool off. Additionally, the report noted that the personal income on a monthly basis inched up by 0.8% in Apr’25 (0.7% in Mar’25). US trade deficit for goods narrowed down by 46% to US$ 87.6bn from a record US$ 162.3bn in Mar’25. On a MoM basis, exports climbed up by 3.4% (2.3% in Mar’25) in Apr’25 while imports growth declined by (-) 19.8% after increasing by 5.7% in Mar’25. US President has proposed new tariffs on steel and aluminium at 50% (From 25%) effective from June 4. In Germany, as per flash estimates, inflation has eased to 2.1% in May’25 against 2.2% increase in Apr’25. This week, ECB is expected to lower rates by 25bps, while BoC is likely to hold rates.
Except US and UK indices, other global stocks ended lower. Investor continue to monitor ongoing developing surrounding global trade. Amongst other indices, both Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped by 1.2% each. Sensex too closed lower by 0.2% with losses in metal and oil & gas stocks. It is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,216 42,270 0.1 S & P 500 5,912 5,912 0 FTSE 8,716 8,772 0.6 Nikkei 38,433 37,965 (1.2) Hang Seng 23,573 23,290 (1.2) Shanghai Comp 3,363 3,347 (0.5) Sensex 81,633 81,451 (0.2) Nifty 24,834 24,751 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring JPY, other global currencies depreciated against a stronger dollar. DXY rose by 0.1% even as treasury yields declined. Revival in global trade tensions fuelled safe haven demand and also supported JPY. INR also depreciated, but is trading stronger today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1370 1.1347 (0.2) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3492 1.3459 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.21 144.02 0.1 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.53 85.58 (0.1) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1859 7.1989 (0.2) DXY Index 99.28 99.33 0.1 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from UK and India, other global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y was down by 2bps, as cooler than expected PCE print, and decline in long-term inflation expectations impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, and it is trading lower at 6.27% today. The new benchmark security is trading lower at 6.21% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, bps US 4.42 4.40 (2) UK 4.65 4.65 0 Germany 2.51 2.50 (1) Japan 1.53 1.50 (3) China 1.72 1.71 (1) India 6.25 6.29 4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.60 5.60 0 Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.60 5.60 0 G-Sec 2Y 5.71 5.71 0 India OIS-2M 5.67 5.67 0 India OIS-9M 5.57 5.60 3 SONIA int rate benchmark 4.21 4.21 0 US SOFR 4.33 4.33 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 1.8 2.1 0.3 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0.3 0 (0.3) Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
28-05-2025 29-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 378.7 3,172.7 2,794.1 Debt (164.0) 3,378.4 3,542.3 Equity 542.6 (205.6) (748.3) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 1,080.2 20.8 (1,059.4) Debt (1,325.9) (615.5) 710.4 Equity 2,406.1 636.2 (1,769.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 22 May and 23 May 2025
Oil prices fell, as OPEC+ is set to expand supplies further in Jul'25.
Fig 7 – Commodities
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.2 63.9 (0.4) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3317.9 3289.3 (0.9) Copper (US$/ MT) 9619.6 9548.1 (0.7) Zinc (US$/MT) 2652.8 2596.6 (2.1) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2450.5 2444.0 (0.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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03 June 2025
Manufacturing PMI (ISM) in the US contracted for the 3rd straight month to 48.5 from 48.7 in Apr’25 raising concerns around manufacturing sector. Weaker demand and higher input cost impacted overall orders. In UK, manufacturing PMI inched up (46.4 from 45.4 in Apr’25) but remained below the 50 level threshold mark. Given the recent tax hikes and uncertainty pertaining to tariffs, contraction was noted across output and new orders as exports took a back seat. In China, manufacturing PMI (private-caixin) slipped in to contraction (48.3 from 50.4) led by sharp fall in demand. On the domestic front, India’s manufacturing PMI eased to 57.6 in May’25 from 58.2 in Apr’25.Though, it continued to remain above the long run average (54.1). The intensification of cost price pressure along with the geopolitical conflict impacted the overall demand.
Except US and UK, other global indices ended lower. US indices registered modest gains as investor turned their focus towards upcoming employment data. Nikkei slipped on the back of stronger Yen. Sensex declined with losses in metal stocks. It is trading weaker today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,270 42,305 0.1 S & P 500 5,912 5,936 0.4 FTSE 8,772 8,774 0 Nikkei 37,965 37,471 (1.3) Hang Seng 23,290 23,158 (0.6) Shanghai Comp 3,363 3,347 (0.5) Sensex 81,451 81,374 (0.1) Nifty 24,751 24,717 (0.1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Most global currencies appreciated against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.6%, even as treasury yields rose. Aggressive stance of Trump administration on tariffs has revived stagflation fears. JPY gained the most, supported by safe haven demand. INR also rose, but it is trading lower today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1347 1.1441 0.8 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3459 1.3544 0.6 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 144.02 142.71 0.9 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.58 85.39 0.2 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1859 7.1989 (0.2) DXY Index 99.33 98.71 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Major global 10Y yields closed higher. US 10Y was up by 4bps, as investors monitor deteriorating relations between US and China. UK’s 10Y yield was impacted by rising house prices in the country. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, and is trading flat today, ahead of RBI’s rate cut decision later this week. The new benchmark security is trading higher at 6.22% today
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.40 4.44 4 UK 4.65 4.67 2 Germany 2.50 2.52 2 Japan 1.50 1.51 1 China 1.72 1.71 (1) India 6.29 6.27 (2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Fig 4 – Short term rates
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.60 5.61 1 Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.60 5.61 1 G-Sec 2Y 5.71 5.71 0 India OIS-2M 5.67 5.66 (1) India OIS-9M 5.60 5.58 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.21 4.21 0 US SOFR 4.33 4.35 2 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.1 2.8 0.7 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) 3,172.7 (1,771.1) (4,943.8) Debt 3,378.4 (1,185.7) (4,564.1) Equity (205.6) (585.4) (379.7) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 5,820.7 (1,370.8) (7,191.5) Debt (1,057.2) (3,037.7) (1,980.5) Equity 6,877.9 1,666.9 (5,211.0) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 May and 29 May 2025
Oil prices rose, noting supply disruptions (wildfire in Canada) and weaker US$.
Fig 7 – Commodities
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.9 64.6 1.1 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3289.3 3381.6 2.8 Copper (US$/ MT) 9548.1 9668.0 1.3 Zinc (US$/MT) 2596.6 2671.9 2.9 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2444.0 2466.0 0.9 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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04 June 2025
In the US, jobs opening data surprised on the upside as it rose to 7.39mn in Apr’25 from 7.2mn in Mar’25. This was driven by private sector such as business and professional services, along with pickup noted in healthcare and social assistance. On the other hand, dip in government opening was on account of state and local education. This data comes ahead of the May jobs report which might offer more guidance on labour market. In South Korea, the opposition party won the elections and are expected to adopt an aggressive fiscal stimulus with the aim to revive the domestic economy. The equity market surged by 2%, highest since Aug’24 and the Korean Won strengthened.
Except Japan and domestic indices, other global stocks ended higher. US indices continued the upward momentum with gains in chip-related stocks. Hang Seng soared on hopes of a trade deal between US and China. Sensex extended its losses with power and banking stocks leading the decline. However, it is trading stronger today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,305 42,520 0.5 S & P 500 5,936 5,970 0.6 FTSE 8,774 8,787 0.1 Nikkei 37,471 37,447 (0.1) Hang Seng 23,158 23,512 1.5 Shanghai Comp 3,347 3,362 0.4 Sensex 81,374 80,738 (0.8) Nifty 24,717 24,543 (0.7) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Most global currencies depreciated against a stronger dollar. DXY rose by 0.5%, amidst global growth worries, trade tensions and rising bond yields. Investors are hoping that talks between US and China will ease some tensions. JPY and EUR were the worst performers. INR also fell, and is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.
Fig 2 – Currencies
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1441 1.1372 (0.6) GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3544 1.3517 (0.2) USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.71 143.97 (0.9) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.39 85.59 (0.2) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1989 7.1883 0.1 DXY Index 98.71 99.23 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y was up a tad, tracking ongoing trade tensions, worries around possible deterioration in fiscal conditions, and higher than expected job openings data. Yields in UK were impacted by OECD’s outlook for the economy. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, and is trading flat today. The new benchmark security is trading lower at 6.20% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.44 4.45 1 UK 4.67 4.64 (3) Germany 2.52 2.53 0 Japan 1.51 1.49 (2) China 1.71 1.71 0 India 6.27 6.25 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June
Fig 4 – Short term rates
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.61 0 Tbill-364 days 5.61 5.60 (1) G-Sec 2Y 5.71 5.70 (1) India OIS-2M 5.66 5.64 (2) India OIS-9M 5.58 5.56 (2) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.21 4.21 0 US SOFR 4.35 4.35 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.8 3.0 0.2 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (1,771.1) (268.5) 1,502.7 Debt (1,185.7) (22.0) 1,163.7 Equity (585.4) (246.5) 338.9 Mutual funds (Rs cr) (1,370.8) 5,466.7 6,837.5 Debt (3,037.7) (2,513.2) 524.5 Equity 1,666.9 7,979.9 6,313.0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 May and 30 May 2025
Oil prices rose to 2-week high, amidst rising geo-political tensions (US-Iran).
Fig 7 – Commodities
02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 63.9 65.6 2.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3289.3 3353.4 2.0 Copper (US$/ MT) 9548.1 9686.3 1.4 Zinc (US$/MT) 2596.6 2681.3 3.3 Aluminium (US$/MT) 2444.0 2463.5 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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05 June 2025
In the US, private payrolls data rose by 37,000 in May’25 (lowest level since Mar’23) compared with 60,000 addition noted in Apr’25. The gains in construction sector was offset by losses in manufacturing and mining sector. Even on services side, education and health, professional and business services registered a decline. On the wage front, annual pay rose at a steady pace (4.5%). This dataset comes ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data which is expected to register an improvement. US ISM slipped in to contraction (49.9 from 51.6 in Apr’25) amidst slower business orders and rising input costs. Eurozone final services PMI signalled contraction with a reading of 49.7 in May’25 from 50.1 in Apr’25. Market awaits RBI’s rate decision tomorrow wherein rate cut is expected.
Except US indices, other global stocks ended higher. US indices closed lower amidst weaker economic data and turned their focus towards upcoming jobs report. Nikkei advanced with gains noted in shares related to semiconductors. Sensex rebounded driven by higher IT and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,520 42,428 (0.2) S & P 500 5,970 5,971 0 FTSE 8,787 8,801 0.2 Nikkei 37,447 37,747 0.8 Hang Seng 23,512 23,654 0.6 Shanghai Comp 3,362 3,376 0.4 Sensex 80,738 80,998 0.3 Nifty 24,543 24,620 0.3 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from INR, other global currencies appreciated against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.4%, tracking weak economic data and following sharp decline in treasury yields. JPY and EUR gained the most. INR fell by 0.4%, even as oil prices eased. However, it is trading slightly higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.
Fig 2 – Currencies
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1372 1.1417 0.4 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3517 1.3554 0.3 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 143.97 142.77 0.8 USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.59 85.91 (0.4) USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1883 7.1780 0.1 DXY Index 99.23 98.79 (0.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Barring Japan, major global 10Y yield closed lower/flat. US 10Y fell sharply by 10bps tracking weaker than expected macro data (ADP employment and ISM services index). Yields in Japan were impacted by increased probability of rate hikes by BoJ. India’s 10Y yield closed flat, and is trading a tad lower today. The new benchmark security is trading steady at 6.20% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.45 4.36 (10) UK 4.64 4.61 (3) Germany 2.53 2.53 0 Japan 1.49 1.51 1 China 1.71 1.70 0 India 6.25 6.26 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.61 5.58 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.61 5.59 (2) Tbill-364 days 5.60 5.58 (2) G-Sec 2Y 5.70 5.70 0 India OIS-2M 5.64 5.65 1 India OIS-9M 5.56 5.55 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.21 4.21 0 US SOFR 4.35 4.32 (3) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 3.0 2.9 (0.1) Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
02-05-2025 03-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (268.5) (747.7) (479.2) Debt (22.0) (362.1) (340.1) Equity (246.5) (385.6) (139.1) Mutual funds (Rs cr) 5,466.7 2,266.8 (3,199.9) Debt (2,513.2) (1,463.2) 1,049.9 Equity 7,979.9 3,730.0 (4,249.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 May and 2 Jun 2025
Oil prices fell as EIA data shows increase in stockpiles of gasoline and distillate.
Fig 7 – Commodities
03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 65.6 64.9 (1.2) Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3353.4 3372.7 0.6 Copper (US$/ MT) 9686.3 9670.0 (0.2) Zinc (US$/MT) 2681.3 2672.2 (0.3) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2463.5 2483.0 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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06 June 2025
In line with expectations, ECB has cut benchmark rates (for 8th time) by 25bps bringing key rates to 2%. The decision was based upon the assessment of inflation outlook and ‘strength of monetary policy transmission’. It has also revised inflation projection downwards to 2% for CY25 from 2.3% previously. The central bank noted the revised projection takes into account lower energy prices and stronger Euro. Investors turned optimistic following the call between US and China on possible tariff negotiations. Signalling further softness in the labour market, US jobless claims rose by 8k to 247k, much more than anticipated (235k). The focus will now shift to jobs report. Separately, in a surprise move PBOC added US$ 139bn of 3-month funds to the market in order to cover seasonal cash crunch situation ahead.
Except US indices and Nikkei, other global stocks ended higher. Hang Seng surged amidst signals of recovery in services sector (Caixin PMI). Nikkei dropped as automakers halted production due to parts shortage amidst rareearth export restrictions by China. Sensex edged higher with gains in real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.
Fig 1 – Stock markets
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, % Dow Jones 42,428 42,320 (0.3) S & P 500 5,971 5,939 (0.5) FTSE 8,801 8,811 0.1 Nikkei 37,747 37,554 (0.5) Hang Seng 23,654 23,907 1.1 Shanghai Comp 3,376 3,384 0.2 Sensex 80,998 81,442 0.5 Nifty 24,620 24,751 0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Apart from JPY and CNY, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY closed at unchanged levels. Gains from hopes of positive outcome of trade deal between US and China were offset by weaker labour market data. Yen declined as treasury yields fell. INR rose by 0.1%, and is trading flat today, ahead of RBI’s decision. Other Asian currencies are trading lower.
Fig 2 – Currencies
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, % EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD) 1.1417 1.1445 0.2 GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD) 1.3554 1.3570 0.1 USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD) 142.77 143.53 (0.5) USD/INR (INR / 1 USD) 85.91 85.80 0.1 USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD) 7.1780 7.1777 0 DXY Index 98.79 98.74 0 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
10Y yields in US and Europe closed higher, while they ended lower/flat elsewhere. In the US, movement was driven by hopes of positive outcome in case of US-China trade deal. In Europe, investors believe ECB will pause in its Jul’25 meeting. India’s 10Y yield inched down a tad, and is trading flat today. The new benchmark security is also trading steady at 6.20% today.
Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, bps US 4.36 4.39 4 UK 4.61 4.62 1 Germany 2.53 2.58 5 Japan 1.51 1.47 (4) China 1.70 1.70 0 India 6.26 6.25 (1) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 4 – Short term rates
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, bps Tbill-91 days 5.58 5.55 (3) Tbill-182 days 5.59 5.55 (4) Tbill-364 days 5.58 5.52 (6) G-Sec 2Y 5.70 5.68 (1) India OIS-2M 5.65 5.63 (2) India OIS-9M 5.55 5.54 (1) SONIA int rate benchmark 4.21 4.21 0 US SOFR 4.32 4.28 (4) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
Fig 5 – Liquidity
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change (Rs tn) Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus) 2.9 3.0 0.1 Reverse Repo 0 0 0 Repo* 0 0 0 Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO
Fig 6 – Capital market flows
03-05-2025 04-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr) FII (US$ mn) (747.7) (29.9) 717.8 Debt (362.1) (216.6) 145.5 Equity (385.6) 186.8 572.3 Mutual funds (Rs cr) 2,266.8 7,749.5 5,482.7 Debt (1,463.2) 3,471.2 4,934.4 Equity 3,730.0 4,278.3 548.4 Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 2 Jun and 3 Jun 2025
Oil prices inched up, tracking trade talks between US and China.
Fig 7 – Commodities
04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, % Brent crude (US$/bbl) 64.9 65.3 0.7 Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce) 3372.7 3352.7 (0.6) Copper (US$/ MT) 9670.0 9832.7 1.7 Zinc (US$/MT) 2672.2 2650.5 (0.8) Aluminium (US$/MT) 2483.0 2478.0 (0.2) Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research
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