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Economic Weekly Wrap
02 June 2025 - 06 Jun 2025

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  • 02 June 2025

    In US, core PCE (excl food and fuel), Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation softened to 2.5% in Apr’25 from 2.7% in Mar’25. This further raises expectation of rate cut later during the year, if inflation continues to cool off. Additionally, the report noted that the personal income on a monthly basis inched up by 0.8% in Apr’25 (0.7% in Mar’25). US trade deficit for goods narrowed down by 46% to US$ 87.6bn from a record US$ 162.3bn in Mar’25. On a MoM basis, exports climbed up by 3.4% (2.3% in Mar’25) in Apr’25 while imports growth declined by (-) 19.8% after increasing by 5.7% in Mar’25. US President has proposed new tariffs on steel and aluminium at 50% (From 25%) effective from June 4. In Germany, as per flash estimates, inflation has eased to 2.1% in May’25 against 2.2% increase in Apr’25. This week, ECB is expected to lower rates by 25bps, while BoC is likely to hold rates.


    Except US and UK indices, other global stocks ended lower. Investor continue to monitor ongoing developing surrounding global trade. Amongst other indices, both Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped by 1.2% each. Sensex too closed lower by 0.2% with losses in metal and oil & gas stocks. It is trading weaker today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,21642,2700.1
    S & P 5005,9125,9120
    FTSE8,7168,7720.6
    Nikkei38,43337,965(1.2)
    Hang Seng23,57323,290(1.2)
    Shanghai Comp3,3633,347(0.5)
    Sensex81,63381,451(0.2)
    Nifty24,83424,751(0.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Barring JPY, other global currencies depreciated against a stronger dollar. DXY rose by 0.1% even as treasury yields declined. Revival in global trade tensions fuelled safe haven demand and also supported JPY. INR also depreciated, but is trading stronger today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.13701.1347(0.2)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.34921.3459(0.2)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)144.21144.020.1
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.5385.58(0.1)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18597.1989(0.2)
    DXY Index99.2899.330.1

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Apart from UK and India, other global 10Y yields closed lower. US 10Y was down by 2bps, as cooler than expected PCE print, and decline in long-term inflation expectations impacted investor sentiments. India’s 10Y yield rose by 4bps, and it is trading lower at 6.27% today. The new benchmark security is trading lower at 6.21% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, bps
    US4.424.40(2)
    UK4.654.650
    Germany2.512.50(1)
    Japan1.531.50(3)
    China1.721.71(1)
    India6.256.294

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.605.600
    Tbill-182 days5.615.610
    Tbill-364 days5.605.600
    G-Sec 2Y5.715.710
    India OIS-2M5.675.670
    India OIS-9M5.575.603
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.334.330

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)1.82.10.3
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*0.30(0.3)

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      28-05-2025 29-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)378.73,172.72,794.1
    Debt(164.0)3,378.43,542.3
    Equity542.6(205.6)(748.3)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)1,080.220.8(1,059.4)
    Debt(1,325.9)(615.5)710.4
    Equity2,406.1636.2(1,769.9)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 22 May and 23 May 2025


    Oil prices fell, as OPEC+ is set to expand supplies further in Jul'25.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)64.263.9(0.4)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3317.93289.3(0.9)
    Copper (US$/ MT)9619.69548.1(0.7)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2652.82596.6(2.1)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2450.52444.0(0.3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 03 June 2025

    Manufacturing PMI (ISM) in the US contracted for the 3rd straight month to 48.5 from 48.7 in Apr’25 raising concerns around manufacturing sector. Weaker demand and higher input cost impacted overall orders. In UK, manufacturing PMI inched up (46.4 from 45.4 in Apr’25) but remained below the 50 level threshold mark. Given the recent tax hikes and uncertainty pertaining to tariffs, contraction was noted across output and new orders as exports took a back seat. In China, manufacturing PMI (private-caixin) slipped in to contraction (48.3 from 50.4) led by sharp fall in demand. On the domestic front, India’s manufacturing PMI eased to 57.6 in May’25 from 58.2 in Apr’25.Though, it continued to remain above the long run average (54.1). The intensification of cost price pressure along with the geopolitical conflict impacted the overall demand.


    Except US and UK, other global indices ended lower. US indices registered modest gains as investor turned their focus towards upcoming employment data. Nikkei slipped on the back of stronger Yen. Sensex declined with losses in metal stocks. It is trading weaker today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,27042,3050.1
    S & P 5005,9125,9360.4
    FTSE8,7728,7740
    Nikkei37,96537,471(1.3)
    Hang Seng23,29023,158(0.6)
    Shanghai Comp3,3633,347(0.5)
    Sensex81,45181,374(0.1)
    Nifty24,75124,717(0.1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Most global currencies appreciated against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.6%, even as treasury yields rose. Aggressive stance of Trump administration on tariffs has revived stagflation fears. JPY gained the most, supported by safe haven demand. INR also rose, but it is trading lower today. Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.13471.14410.8
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.34591.35440.6
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)144.02142.710.9
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.5885.390.2
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18597.1989(0.2)
    DXY Index99.3398.71(0.6)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Major global 10Y yields closed higher. US 10Y was up by 4bps, as investors monitor deteriorating relations between US and China. UK’s 10Y yield was impacted by rising house prices in the country. India’s 10Y yield fell by 2bps, and is trading flat today, ahead of RBI’s rate cut decision later this week. The new benchmark security is trading higher at 6.22% today

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.404.444
    UK4.654.672
    Germany2.502.522
    Japan1.501.511
    China1.721.71(1)
    India6.296.27(2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.605.611
    Tbill-182 days5.615.610
    Tbill-364 days5.605.611
    G-Sec 2Y5.715.710
    India OIS-2M5.675.66(1)
    India OIS-9M5.605.58(2)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.334.352

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.12.80.7
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      29-05-2025 30-05-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)3,172.7(1,771.1)(4,943.8)
    Debt3,378.4(1,185.7)(4,564.1)
    Equity(205.6)(585.4)(379.7)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)5,820.7(1,370.8)(7,191.5)
    Debt(1,057.2)(3,037.7)(1,980.5)
    Equity6,877.91,666.9(5,211.0)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 28 May and 29 May 2025


    Oil prices rose, noting supply disruptions (wildfire in Canada) and weaker US$.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)63.964.61.1
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3289.33381.62.8
    Copper (US$/ MT)9548.19668.01.3
    Zinc (US$/MT)2596.62671.92.9
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2444.02466.00.9

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 04 June 2025

    In the US, jobs opening data surprised on the upside as it rose to 7.39mn in Apr’25 from 7.2mn in Mar’25. This was driven by private sector such as business and professional services, along with pickup noted in healthcare and social assistance. On the other hand, dip in government opening was on account of state and local education. This data comes ahead of the May jobs report which might offer more guidance on labour market. In South Korea, the opposition party won the elections and are expected to adopt an aggressive fiscal stimulus with the aim to revive the domestic economy. The equity market surged by 2%, highest since Aug’24 and the Korean Won strengthened.


    Except Japan and domestic indices, other global stocks ended higher. US indices continued the upward momentum with gains in chip-related stocks. Hang Seng soared on hopes of a trade deal between US and China. Sensex extended its losses with power and banking stocks leading the decline. However, it is trading stronger today, while Asian stocks are trading mixed.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,30542,5200.5
    S & P 5005,9365,9700.6
    FTSE8,7748,7870.1
    Nikkei37,47137,447(0.1)
    Hang Seng23,15823,5121.5
    Shanghai Comp3,3473,3620.4
    Sensex81,37480,738(0.8)
    Nifty24,71724,543(0.7)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Most global currencies depreciated against a stronger dollar. DXY rose by 0.5%, amidst global growth worries, trade tensions and rising bond yields. Investors are hoping that talks between US and China will ease some tensions. JPY and EUR were the worst performers. INR also fell, and is trading further lower today, in line with other Asian currencies.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.14411.1372(0.6)
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35441.3517(0.2)
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)142.71143.97(0.9)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.3985.59(0.2)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.19897.18830.1
    DXY Index98.7199.230.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Major global 10Y yields closed mixed. US 10Y was up a tad, tracking ongoing trade tensions, worries around possible deterioration in fiscal conditions, and higher than expected job openings data. Yields in UK were impacted by OECD’s outlook for the economy. India’s 10Y yield fell by 1bps, and is trading flat today. The new benchmark security is trading lower at 6.20% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.444.451
    UK4.674.64(3)
    Germany2.522.530
    Japan1.511.49(2)
    China1.711.710
    India6.276.25(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: China’s market was closed on 2 June


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.615.610
    Tbill-182 days5.615.610
    Tbill-364 days5.615.60(1)
    G-Sec 2Y5.715.70(1)
    India OIS-2M5.665.64(2)
    India OIS-9M5.585.56(2)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.354.350

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.83.00.2
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      30-05-2025 02-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(1,771.1)(268.5)1,502.7
    Debt(1,185.7)(22.0)1,163.7
    Equity(585.4)(246.5)338.9
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)(1,370.8)5,466.76,837.5
    Debt(3,037.7)(2,513.2)524.5
    Equity1,666.97,979.96,313.0

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 29 May and 30 May 2025


    Oil prices rose to 2-week high, amidst rising geo-political tensions (US-Iran).

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      02-06-2025 03-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)63.965.62.7
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3289.33353.42.0
    Copper (US$/ MT)9548.19686.31.4
    Zinc (US$/MT)2596.62681.33.3
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2444.02463.50.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 05 June 2025

    In the US, private payrolls data rose by 37,000 in May’25 (lowest level since Mar’23) compared with 60,000 addition noted in Apr’25. The gains in construction sector was offset by losses in manufacturing and mining sector. Even on services side, education and health, professional and business services registered a decline. On the wage front, annual pay rose at a steady pace (4.5%). This dataset comes ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data which is expected to register an improvement. US ISM slipped in to contraction (49.9 from 51.6 in Apr’25) amidst slower business orders and rising input costs. Eurozone final services PMI signalled contraction with a reading of 49.7 in May’25 from 50.1 in Apr’25. Market awaits RBI’s rate decision tomorrow wherein rate cut is expected.

    Except US indices, other global stocks ended higher. US indices closed lower amidst weaker economic data and turned their focus towards upcoming jobs report. Nikkei advanced with gains noted in shares related to semiconductors. Sensex rebounded driven by higher IT and oil & gas stocks. It is trading higher today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,52042,428(0.2)
    S & P 5005,9705,9710
    FTSE8,7878,8010.2
    Nikkei37,44737,7470.8
    Hang Seng23,51223,6540.6
    Shanghai Comp3,3623,3760.4
    Sensex80,73880,9980.3
    Nifty24,54324,6200.3

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

    Apart from INR, other global currencies appreciated against a weaker dollar. DXY fell by 0.4%, tracking weak economic data and following sharp decline in treasury yields. JPY and EUR gained the most. INR fell by 0.4%, even as oil prices eased. However, it is trading slightly higher today, while other Asian currencies are trading mixed.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.13721.14170.4
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35171.35540.3
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)143.97142.770.8
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.5985.91(0.4)
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.18837.17800.1
    DXY Index99.2398.79(0.4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Barring Japan, major global 10Y yield closed lower/flat. US 10Y fell sharply by 10bps tracking weaker than expected macro data (ADP employment and ISM services index). Yields in Japan were impacted by increased probability of rate hikes by BoJ. India’s 10Y yield closed flat, and is trading a tad lower today. The new benchmark security is trading steady at 6.20% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.454.36(10)
    UK4.644.61(3)
    Germany2.532.530
    Japan1.491.511
    China1.711.700
    India6.256.260

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.615.58(3)
    Tbill-182 days5.615.59(2)
    Tbill-364 days5.605.58(2)
    G-Sec 2Y5.705.700
    India OIS-2M5.645.651
    India OIS-9M5.565.55(1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.354.32(3)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)3.02.9(0.1)
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      02-05-2025 03-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(268.5)(747.7)(479.2)
    Debt(22.0)(362.1)(340.1)
    Equity(246.5)(385.6)(139.1)
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)5,466.72,266.8(3,199.9)
    Debt(2,513.2)(1,463.2)1,049.9
    Equity7,979.93,730.0(4,249.9)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 30 May and 2 Jun 2025


    Oil prices fell as EIA data shows increase in stockpiles of gasoline and distillate.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      03-06-2025 04-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)65.664.9(1.2)
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3353.43372.70.6
    Copper (US$/ MT)9686.39670.0(0.2)
    Zinc (US$/MT)2681.32672.2(0.3)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2463.52483.00.8

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

  • 06 June 2025

    In line with expectations, ECB has cut benchmark rates (for 8th time) by 25bps bringing key rates to 2%. The decision was based upon the assessment of inflation outlook and ‘strength of monetary policy transmission’. It has also revised inflation projection downwards to 2% for CY25 from 2.3% previously. The central bank noted the revised projection takes into account lower energy prices and stronger Euro. Investors turned optimistic following the call between US and China on possible tariff negotiations. Signalling further softness in the labour market, US jobless claims rose by 8k to 247k, much more than anticipated (235k). The focus will now shift to jobs report. Separately, in a surprise move PBOC added US$ 139bn of 3-month funds to the market in order to cover seasonal cash crunch situation ahead.


    Except US indices and Nikkei, other global stocks ended higher. Hang Seng surged amidst signals of recovery in services sector (Caixin PMI). Nikkei dropped as automakers halted production due to parts shortage amidst rareearth export restrictions by China. Sensex edged higher with gains in real estate stocks. However, it is trading lower today, in line with other Asian stocks.

    Fig 1 – Stock markets

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, %
    Dow Jones42,42842,320(0.3)
    S & P 5005,9715,939(0.5)
    FTSE8,8018,8110.1
    Nikkei37,74737,554(0.5)
    Hang Seng23,65423,9071.1
    Shanghai Comp3,3763,3840.2
    Sensex80,99881,4420.5
    Nifty24,62024,7510.5

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Apart from JPY and CNY, other global currencies appreciated against the dollar. DXY closed at unchanged levels. Gains from hopes of positive outcome of trade deal between US and China were offset by weaker labour market data. Yen declined as treasury yields fell. INR rose by 0.1%, and is trading flat today, ahead of RBI’s decision. Other Asian currencies are trading lower.

    Fig 2 – Currencies

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, %
    EUR/USD (1 EUR / USD)1.14171.14450.2
    GBP/USD (1 GBP / USD)1.35541.35700.1
    USD/JPY (JPY / 1 USD)142.77143.53(0.5)
    USD/INR (INR / 1 USD)85.9185.800.1
    USD/CNY (CNY / 1 USD)7.17807.17770
    DXY Index98.7998.740

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    10Y yields in US and Europe closed higher, while they ended lower/flat elsewhere. In the US, movement was driven by hopes of positive outcome in case of US-China trade deal. In Europe, investors believe ECB will pause in its Jul’25 meeting. India’s 10Y yield inched down a tad, and is trading flat today. The new benchmark security is also trading steady at 6.20% today.

    Fig 3 – Bond 10Y yield

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, bps
    US4.364.394
    UK4.614.621
    Germany2.532.585
    Japan1.511.47(4)
    China1.701.700
    India6.266.25(1)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 4 – Short term rates

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, bps
    Tbill-91 days5.585.55(3)
    Tbill-182 days5.595.55(4)
    Tbill-364 days5.585.52(6)
    G-Sec 2Y5.705.68(1)
    India OIS-2M5.655.63(2)
    India OIS-9M5.555.54(1)
    SONIA int rate benchmark4.214.210
    US SOFR4.324.28(4)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research


    Fig 5 – Liquidity

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change (Rs tn)
    Net Liquidity (-deficit/+surplus)2.93.00.1
    Reverse Repo000
    Repo*000

    Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research, *Includes LTRO


    Fig 6 – Capital market flows

      03-05-2025 04-06-2025 Change (US$ mn/Rs cr)
    FII (US$ mn)(747.7)(29.9)717.8
    Debt(362.1)(216.6)145.5
    Equity(385.6)186.8572.3
    Mutual funds (Rs cr)2,266.87,749.55,482.7
    Debt(1,463.2)3,471.24,934.4
    Equity3,730.04,278.3548.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research | Note: Mutual Fund data as of 2 Jun and 3 Jun 2025


    Oil prices inched up, tracking trade talks between US and China.

    Fig 7 – Commodities

      04-06-2025 05-06-2025 Change, %
    Brent crude (US$/bbl)64.965.30.7
    Gold (US$/ Troy Ounce)3372.73352.7(0.6)
    Copper (US$/ MT)9670.09832.71.7
    Zinc (US$/MT)2672.22650.5(0.8)
    Aluminium (US$/MT)2483.02478.0(0.2)

    Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Baroda Research

Economics Scenario

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Economic Weekly Wrap
09 June 2025 - 13 Jun 2025

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26 May 2025 - 30 May 2025

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